Wednesday, October 8, 2008

$1,000,000,000,000,000

That number, folks, is a quadrillion. A million billion. Bet you've never seen it before. I've only seen it in measuring distances in astronomy; the nearest star to the sun is about a quadrillion meters away from here. It seems like such an unfathomably large number that I wouldn't expect to ever encounter it associated with something here on Earth, something directly related to the human experience. But I saw it today.

You'll notice the number in the title has a dollars sign in front of it. That number represents the approximate amount of financial value tied up the derivatives market as recently reported by the Bank for International Settlements. Over fifteen times the entire world's GDP ($60 trillion). In other words, way more money is invested in these derivatives, which are best described in layman's terms as bets on bets, than actually exists.

Confused? Good. You're starting to get why we're in such a mess. See, the fact that these volatile markets hold a quadrillion dollars of value is not a dangerous thing in itself. The problem lies in the harsh reality that nobody has any f***ing clue what these things are worth. That's why everyone's so scared.

This can happen because there are no intrinsic checks and balances (aka regulations) on the derivatives market the way there are with banks. Institutional investors and speculators can leverage their real assets without limit, essentially creating vast amounts of financial wealth out of thin air. But because that wealth isn't backed up by any material assets, its value is both limitless and extremely unstable.

To better put this phenomenon into perspective, take a look at this chart:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/defaults-on-derivatives-sept08.gif

More to come....

Saturday, October 4, 2008

October 2008 Senate Roundup

And down the stretch they come! The landscape hasn't changed drastically since the last update in June, although a few races have moved a category or two. If you can believe it, the situation has gotten even better for the Dem-held seats, as it looks like they will all be retained. Meanwhile, the hierarchy of GOP races has stayed much the same in terms of competitiveness, although three (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina) have jumped two categories while three others (Idaho, Kansas and Maine) have fallen two categories. Dems are now poised to grab at least seven seats, and the ceiling at this point seems to be somewhere in the 10-12 range.

This will be my last full set of rankings, although I will post an update on competitive races during the week before election day.

Here's the key, same as usual:
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%

To the rankings!

Summary (pickups in italics)
10: AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, VA, WV
9: NJ
8: LA, NM
7: AK, CO, NH
6: NC, OR
5: MN
4: MS-B
3: GA, KY
2: ME, SC, TX
1: AL, ID, KS, MS-A, NE, OK, TN, WY-A, WY-B

Republican-Held Seats (23)

Virginia (OPEN): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Democratic Candidate: (Popular) Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Candidate: (Less Popular) Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
This race has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Organizing in northern Virginia, I have seen a whole bunch of Obama/Warner posters and yard signs. It's one of those rare instances where up-ballot coattails could help carry this all-important swing state for Barack. Another note: for some reason this has been one of the most often-polled Senate races. Pollsters should save their $$ - no poll has shown Gilmore within 20 points. The only question remaining is what committees Warner will get onto in the 111th Congress.

New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Candidate: Rep. Steve Pearce
A contest between two sitting Congressmen, this contest was bound to tighten a bit as election day drew nearer and voters started paying more attention. Nevertheless, Udall remains projected to win by a low-double digit margin (something like 56-44). The NRSC has written off New Mexico, seeing this seat as a lost cause. Really not much else to say...I think Udall will be a fantastic Senator.

Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - slight downgrade
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado is a top-tier presidential swing state this year, and its senate race has been no different; it has garned much attention from the DSCC and NRSC and has stayed consistently in single digits. Udall remains a clear favorite, but he has failed to pull away from the batnuts crazy Schaffer, whose views are even considered extreme as compared to the current group of shit-flinging howler monkeys (h/t Trapper John for that wonderfully descriptive term) known as the House Republican Caucus. Schaffer has also been caught up in numerous corruption scandals, the most notable being his ties to the infamous superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Udall remains up by mere single digits, it will take a dramatic game-changing event for him to lose.

Alaska (Ted Stevens): 7 (Leans D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
This race was looking pretty good even before Stevens was indicted a couple months ago. Now Begich is clearly in the driver's seat. Even though the Alaska titan Stevens, who has been in the Senate almost as long as Alaska has been a state, may be able to beat his corruption charges, his brand is still highly tainted due to all the negative spotlight. And for reference, a perception of impropriety among the Alaska Republican establishment was precisely what swept Sarah Palin into office in 2006. Begich seems to have strong integrity, high name recognition and has some great ideas on energy and transitioning to a green economy. Another guy I would be proud to call a Senator.

New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Although Sununu's September attack ad blitz has tightened the race a bit, he still remains fundamentally unpopular, as he has consistently shilled for the horrendously unpopular Bush administration and continues to do so even now. It's hard to see how he overcomes that albatross with this election climate.

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 6 (Barely D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
Over the past few weeks, Hagan has pulled into a definitive lead over the frankly incompetent Senator Dole. The DSCC has invested massively on Hagan's behalf, and their hard-hitting ads highlighting Liddy Dole's ties to George Bush, general ineffectiveness and questionable ties to North Carolina (her primary residence is DC's infamous Watergate Hotel) have clearly had an effect. Surely the Republican establishment will hit back on the incumbent's behalf, but it seems like the damage has been done.

Oregon (Gordon Smith): 6 (Barely D) - upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
This movement is really exciting to see; Merkley has the potential to be a great progressive Senator. He engineered a Democratic takeover of the Oregon State House in 2006 and proceeded to preside over one of the most successful legislative sessions in recent history. He has fantastic views on energy, transportation, social and economic issues - the whole gamut of domestic affairs. Smith could still win as polls are showing a virtual tie, but he has really disgusted some Oregonians by trying to heavyhandedly run away from his party. It is hard to see how he overcomes that loss of credibility.

Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R)
Democratic Challenger: Al Franken
Notable Independent Candidate: Dean Barkley
I predicted a really nasty race, and am sorry to say I have not been disappointed. Coleman, the former
radical hippie activist, is truly a worm. He catapulted into office on the back of faux GOP outrage over the injection of (gasp) politics into progressive hero Paul Wellstone's funeral following his tragic plane crash (I still suspect foul play). And Franken is the perfect man to pick up the Wellstone mantle, being a proud Democrat and not afraid to stand up for his values in the face of criticism. This election is looking much like a toss-up, and will greatly depend on Obama's ability to establish coattails for Franken. Note that Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is generating a significant amount of support and may end up getting close to 20% of the vote.

Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Somewhat surprisingly, not much has changed overall in the dynamics of this contest. While Musgrove has generally run away from the national Democrats, his chances ironically still reside in the upswell in African-American voters from the Obama campaigns organizing efforts. If I had to guess I would say Wicker pulls it off, but this one is certainly a real Dem pickup opportunity. This would be the seat that gets the Dems to 60 Senators (including Lieberman), so expect ample national party committee expenditures in MS during the camapign's final weeks.

Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Challenger: Rich Businessman Bruce Lunsford
Polls have McConnell ahead somewhere in the single digits, at it will likely remain that way through election day. It would be great to knock off the odious Senate GOP leader McConnell, but at this point a Lunsford victory would merely be the cherry on top of an already sweet election season. McConnell still has a ton of $ in the bank so he should be able to pull out a win.


Georgia
(Saxby Chambliss): 3 (Favored R)
- major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Jim Martin
Libertarian Challenger: Allen Buckley
Wow. I really didn't expect this race to tighten, but it has. Obama's investment in Georgia, Chambliss' general arrogance and the deregulation-fueled financial crisis have driven a previously afterthought contest into competitive status. I will need to see a couple more tight polls to be convinced that Martin can win, but man would this be a pleasant surprise. Martin is actually a good, honest guy who would stand with the Dems on most major issues. Expect the DSCC to invest heavily, they really hate Chambliss and if they can siphon enough resources from other places like New Mexico and Maine, GA-Sen has a shot to be the shocker of the 2008 elections.

Texas (John Cornyn): 2 (Probable R) - slight downgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Rep. and Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
Yeah, it's Texas, and while making strides in the right direction, Texas is still unquestionably a red state. But Noriega is running as a proud netroots-style progressive and is gradually closing the gap on the odious chickenhawk Bush-shill Cornyn. While Noriega is badly outgunned financially, the race's margin now hovers in the high single digits. A strong finish by Noriega combined with huge youth and minority turnout could lead to a stunning upset and a great Democratic Senator from Texas. Oh yeah - Cornyn takes the honors for worst campaign ad of the 2008 election cycle.

Maine
(Susan Collins): 2 (Probable R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Originally a top-tier pickup target, Maine's contest now ranks just 13th on the list of pickup opportunities. As much as they have tried, Allen and the DSCC simply have not been able to chip away at Sen. Collins' high approval ratings. I believe such popularity is thoroughly undeserved, but she benefits from the coattails of actually moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe and former liberal Republicans that historically dominated the state. It's hard to see how that changes with just a month until election day. Oh well.

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 2 (Probable R) - upgrade
"Democratic" Challenger: Bob Conley
Weird. Two recent polls have Graham leading the DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Conley by just nine points. Perhaps conservatives have been impressed by Conley's hardline stances on immigration and crime prevention - he's actually running to the right of Graham on these issues. Graham will almost definitely win, but it's interesting to note that some of this movement may be due to economic trends and a general "throw the bums out" kind of attitude.

Nebraska (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - downgrade
Republican Candidate: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Democratic Candidate: Scott Kleeb
Some lefty activists continue to hold out hope for Kleeb, but I just can't see it. The state is too deeply conservative and Kleeb just doesn't have the name recognition in the eastern part of the state that isn't quite so ruby red.

Idaho
(OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Republican Candidate: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
I had hopes for this to be the stunning upset of the election cycle but it just never materialized. Idaho remains one of the most strongly Republican states in the country and LaRocco's support seems to be topped out at around 35-38%.

Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Rice is a very intriguing young Democrat; in just his early 30's, he seems to have a very bright future and may indeed find himself in the Senate one day. But 2008 is not that day. While Inhofe is truly insane and Oklahomans should be embarrassed to have him as a Senator, they aren't.

Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Former Rep. Jim Slattery
During the early summer this race was showing glimpses of competitiveness and Slattery had the potential to be a solid candidate, but that did not hold. Roberts wil cruise to re-election.

Tennessee
(Lamar Alexander): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Bob Tuke
Nothing to see here. Tuke seems like a good guy, but hasn't caught any traction.

Alabama
(Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures

Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Nick Carter

Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Erik Fleming

Wyoming-A
(Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Professor Chris Rothfuss

Democratic-held Seats (12)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 8 (Favored D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy
Once seen as a toss-up race, Landrieu has done a great job so far and currently has a solid double-digit lead over the recent Democratic defector Kennedy. I am being cautious and still leaving Kennedy some room to claw his way back, but with so many GOP seats in jeopardy it looks like the NRSC will not have much $ left over to invest in offense.

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Republican Challenger: Former Rep. Dick Zimmer
Polls here are actually closer than in Louisiana, but New Jersey has been the ultimate GOP tease in recent years. Karl Rove & Co. spent millions in the outrageously expensive state in both 2004 and 2006, and likely lost the Senate because that spending diverted precious resources away from Virginia, Montana and Missouri. Expect a 54-46 type victory for Lautenberg.

South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
There's really not much to say. The GOP really blew this one with a near-total recruitment failure. Johnson will cruise to an easy victory.

Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
This one is only listed here because there will be an immediate special election to replace Biden when he becomes the Vice President. Note that all following races are in alphabetical order. None of the races from here on need any substantial comment. It is difficult to picture any of these Democratic incumbents winning by less than 15 points.

Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: NONE (there is a Green Party candidate)
Mind you this is a red state. And the party couldn't find any challenger for a supposedly vulnerable Pryor? Good lord that's pathetic.

Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg

Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Christopher Reed

Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jeff Beatty

Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jack Hoogendyk

Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D)
"Republican" Challenger: Bob Kelleher
This one is worth noting just because Kelleher is a really funny kook dude. He ran against Baucus last time in the Green Party. And he won a contested GOP primary. That's just sad.

Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Robert Tingle

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jay Wolfe
The only swing vote here may be among people named Jay.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Campaigning vs. Governing

So now we have our full tickets: Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. And they are very revealing about the nature of this election and the dynamics of the partisan landscape these days.
The most important revelation here further clarifies that Obama is running his campaign in a manner that sets him up to govern effectively, while McCain is simply running to win, governance be damned.

Okay, raise your hand if you'd heard of Sarah Palin before she became the VP nominee. Right. The buzz said Palin was a potentially smart pick because it shored up support for McCain among social conservatives and may be able to pick up some disaffected Hillary supporters because she is a woman. Which may be true. But the fact is, how the hell does she in any way pass the "commander-in-chief" test? This is the person who John McCain wants to take over the country should anything happen to him (he is a health risk after all)?! She is just over a year into her term as governor of a state with fewer people than Fort Worth, TX and a fantasyland welfare system driven by massive oil profits. In terms of governing preparedness and helpfulness to a potential McCain Administration, Sarah Palin is an absolute zero.

Whereas with Joe Biden, Obama has added perhaps the foremost foreign policy expert in Washington to his team. It would be very difficult to say this pair is not capable of handling a crisis of foreign affairs (although Rove & Co will try). Biden is also extremely well respected on Capitol Hill and will help build unlikely alliances to shepherd through his boss's agenda. In short, this is a VP selection that will help with electoral politics, but even more so with effective governance.

This episode is further evidence that Barack Obama is not just trying to get into the Oval Office, but clearly wants to be a highly capable leader once there. We have seen that in the way Obama handled the primary debates, not seeking to sow hatred against fellow Democrats at any point even while his rival chose to take a different path. We have seen that in the ways Obama has handled rolling out his policy platform, refraining from ambitious policy proposals that he does not believe he can deliver. When pressed for specifics, he has stuck to the core aspects of his agenda and refused to pander to the base just to win an election. That is not "running away from his base", it's preparing for honest governance. As for those that say he is not providing specifics, I believe they are either partisan agents aiming to deliberately misinform low-information voters, or being played by those smear merchants.

John McCain, on the other hand, seems not to care all that much about governing; he is attempting to be all things to all people. I can't think of an issue (except arguably Iraq) where he has maintained the same position he held in 2000, when he ran as an actual "maverick". Abortion, tax cuts, immigration, torture, campaign finance....the list goes on and on. Furthermore, he has betrayed over the course of the campaign a fundamental lack of understanding of the key issues facing the nation today. He gets Sunnis and Shiites confused, or confuses them on purpose to make a warmongering talking point possible. He still says "everybody knows" that tax cuts raise revenues. He calls a salary of anything under $5 million "middle class". He has consistently opposed funding health care and body armor for the troops he continues to send into harm's way, supposedly claiming it abandons principles of fiscal responsibility while billions of taxpayer dollars go "missing" in Iraq and not a peep is uttered. He calls his wife a cunt and offers her services for a strip show but thinks feminist women will support him because Barack Obama is....smug? Worst of all, while jumping aboard the mantle of reform, he continues to staff his campaign heavily with corporate lobbying interests and disciples of the vermin that populated the vaunted Bush PR machine.

Talking points aside, it seems McCain really is running to continue the legacy of George W. Bush and the legacy of fundamentalist Republicanism, much to America's detriment. More politics over policy. That, above all, is why we cannot allow him the opportunity to pretend to govern.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Reining In the New Spoils System: A Proposal
Part I: Defining the Problem

I'm gonna introduce this topic with a favored boogeyman of the left - Halliburton. We all know the story: This all-purpose giant contracting conglomerate, formerly headed by Darth Cheney himself, is awarded massive no-bid contracts by the Bush misAdministration to perform various tasks traditionally performed by the federal government. Notoriously, billions of dollars go missing during the early days of the Iraq War, Halliburton subsidiary KBR is ostensibly deemed the culprit escapes any measure of accountability, and campaign contributions to Republicans rise substantially among the war profiteering sector.

Halliburton has become so notorious due to its sheer brazenness engaging in naked cronyism. They are an effective poster child for the rapidly expanding phenomenon of privatized government services. The GOP and other supporters claim it is more effective because private entities can perform services cheaper, thus saving taxpayers money. This theory has been proven incorrect in reality, but makes for an effective smokescreen argument. To quote the eminently quotable Paul Krugman, circa 2002:

So what's this about?

First, it's about providing political cover. In the face of budget deficits as far as the eye can see, the administration -- determined to expand, not reconsider the program of tax cuts it initially justified with projections of huge surpluses -- must make a show of cutting spending. Yet what can it cut? The great bulk of public spending is either for essential services like defense and the justice system, or for middle-class entitlements like Social Security and Medicare that the administration doesn't dare attack openly.

Privatizing federal jobs is a perfect answer to this dilemma. It's not a real answer -- the pay of those threatened employees is only about 2 percent of the federal budget, so efficiency gains from privatization, even if they happen, will make almost no dent in overall spending. For a few years, however, talk of privatization will give the impression that the administration is doing something about the deficit.

But distracting the public from the reality of deficits is, we can be sure, just an incidental payoff. So, too, is the fact that privatization is a way to break one of the last remaining strongholds of union power. Karl Rove is after much bigger game.

A few months ago Mr. Rove compared his boss to Andrew Jackson. As some of us noted at the time, one of Jackson's key legacies was the ''spoils system,'' under which federal jobs were reserved for political supporters. The federal civil service, with its careful protection of workers from political pressure, was created specifically to bring the spoils system to an end; but now the administration has found a way around those constraints.

We don't have to speculate about what will follow, because Jeb Bush has already blazed the trail. Florida's governor has been an aggressive privatizer, and as The Miami Herald put it after a careful study of state records, ''his bold experiment has been a success -- at least for him and the Republican Party, records show. The policy has spawned a network of contractors who have given him, other Republican politicians and the Florida G.O.P. millions of dollars in campaign donations.''

What's interesting about this network of contractors isn't just the way that big contributions are linked to big contracts; it's the end of the traditional practice in which businesses hedge their bets by giving to both parties. The big winners in Mr. Bush's Florida are companies that give little or nothing to Democrats. Strange, isn't it? It's as if firms seeking business with the state of Florida are subject to a loyalty test.

So am I saying that we are going back to the days of Boss Tweed and Mark Hanna? Gosh, no -- those guys were pikers. One-party control of today's government offers opportunities to reward friends and punish enemies that the old machine politicians never dreamed of.

note: text bolded by me.

This is why we care about Halliburton - we have seen this sort of cronyism multiple times before, and resoundingly rejected it as a nation each time. There is no reason to believe that the voting public would accept a return to a de facto spoils system, with trillions of dollars at its disposal, if they clearly saw it as such. Think about the following events that are emblematic of the traits most hurting Republican approval in recent years:

1) Katrina - with political cronies installed at the top of a disaster management agency, a city drowns while the federal government does nothing. President Bush and his Republican toadies blithely ignore the fact that FEMA has been gutted and "heckuva job, Brownie" becomes a catch phrase to symbolize the GOP culture of corruption.

2) Justice Department politicization - Thanks to the efforts of intrepid blogger/reporter Josh Marshall, the Bush misAdministration was exposed for morphing its Justice Department into a tool of the Republican Party under Abu Gonzales. Once the story hit the traditional media, the approval ratings of Shrub and his congressional bootlickers took a significant hit.

3) Elitist economic policy - After-tax income inequality has risen to its highest level since 1928. Republicans believe the economy is doing just hunky dory while those without a trust fund are stuck in neutral and sliding back. Here's Fred Thompson in one of last year's GOP debate, echoing the standard party line:

MR. THOMPSON: I think there is no reason to believe that we're headed for a recession. We're enjoying 22 quarters of successive economic growth that started in 2001, and then further in 2003 with the tax cuts that we put in place. We're enjoying low inflation. We're enjoying low unemployment. The stock market seems to be doing pretty well. I see no reason to believe we're headed for -- (pause) -- for economic downturn.

MS. BARTIROMO: Senator, you've painted a very nice picture. The Dow and the S&P 500 today at new highs tonight, record numbers, and yet, two-thirds of the people surveyed said we are either in a recession or headed for one. Why the angst?

MR. THOMPSON: Well, I think there are pockets in the economy. Certainly they're having difficulty. I think there are certainly those in Michigan that are having difficulty. I think you always find that in a vibrant, dynamic economy. I think that not enough has been done to tell what some call the greatest story never told, and that is that we are enjoying a period of growth right now, and we should acknowledge what got us there and continue those same policies on into the future.

In other words, all those useless poor and working-class people should quit complaining, suck it up and wait for the crumbs to trickle down. They just don't get it - if the rich are doing well, then you're just not working hard enough.

Why does this matter to the privatization debate? Because while most citizens won't openly express animosity towards the wealthy in general, an immense amount of rage can be generated towards those enriching themselves off the taxpayer's dime. This brings us to the next point:

4) War Profiteers - Not much explanation is needed. Even the most wingnutty Republicans won't dare to defend these loathsome maggots; all they can do is distract and change the subject. And - surprise! - government contractors pay their executives extraordinarily lavishly. Halliburton, for example, paid its CEO David Lesar a whopping $29,360,000 in 2006 alone. That's two-hundred and ninety-three MILLION taxpayer dimes. And they're honestly saying the government, who pays its top executives no more than $400,000, can't do the job just as efficiently?! Even the most accomplished BS artists can't possibly believe that deep down.

So we reach the key question: how to break through the smoke screen and start debating the privatization matter in honest terms? I'll present my proposed solution in the next post. Stay tuned.....

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

The media is making itself a political issue

Media bias has been an increasingly important topic among progressive activists. The right wing has learned over many years how to manipulate the traditional media outlets into supporting their agenda. By continuously asserting a "liberal" bias and putting major pressure on any pro-Democratic or liberal coverage (real or perceived), the major corporate news networks have been trained to adopt and promote conservative frames while suppressing liberal ones.

Usually this phenomenon exhibits itself subtly. For instance, the Talking Heads continually refer to the estate tax as the much more nefarious-sounding "death tax" or refuse to critique a Republican's pronounced issue stances against their past legislative votes. And of course one can point out the myriad ways in which the corporate media has kowtowed to John McCain.

But every so often, an example of media bias comes along that is so blatant, so egregious and so misleading that it renders the "liberal media" canard utterly indefensible. Yesterday, Olbermann exposed a shockingly obvious whitewashing of a potentially self-damaging McCain quote by CBS.

From their exclusive interview:
Couric: Senator McCain, Sen. Obama says, while the increased number of U.S. troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that?

McCain: I don't know how you respond to something that is such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel McFarlane (phonetic) was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history. Thanks to General Petraeus, our leadership, and the sacrifice of brave young Americans. I mean, to deny that their sacrifice didn't make possible the success of the surge in Iraq, I think, does a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed.
It just so happens that McCain's depiction of this "matter of history" is flat-out false. The Anbar Awakening happened months before the surge. Here's some clarification by EquationDoc at DailyKos:

The colonel was Colonel Sean McFarland, the head of 1st Brigade, 1st Division. They were redeployed to Iraq in January, 2006, in Nineveh province. In May, 2006 they were transferred south to Ramadi, in Al Anbar province, the site of the "Anbar Awakening." The 1st Brigade, 1st Division was redeployed out of Iraq in mid-February, 2007.

That is, the unit McCain is referring to left Iraq approximately one month after Bush announced the surge on January 10, 2007 (troop surge timeline). A month later, on March 20, troop strength was up from 132,000 (in January) to 152,000. Additional commitments to the surge would eventually bring the total to 168,000, in September, 2007.

The Anbar Awakening, or Anbar Salvation Council, was founded by Sheik Abdul Sattar Buzaigh al-Rishawi in September, 2006, again, long before Bush's January 10, 2007 announcement of the surge. And ironically, at the same time troop surge levels peaked and US casualties were in the process of declining, al-Rishawi was killed in September, 2007 by a roadside bomb in Ramadi. It's even more ironic when considered in the context of McSame's claims that we were "able to go out and protect that sheik and others."

In making a statement such as this, either McCain has memory issues or he is simply lying. An editor at CBS likely recognized the inaccuracy of his statement. Thus, CBS chose to scrub out these words and replace them with another, much more on-message answer from earlier in the interview:
Sen. Obama has indicated that by his failure to acknowledge the success of the surge, that he would rather lose a war than lose a campaign.


I dare Marlowe and any other McSame apologists out there to give me an explanation for this switcheroo other than that which I contend: pro-McCain and pro-Republican media bias.

We can see here why those in the traditional press are so condescending towards bloggers and the internet in general: We are a direct threat to their ability to control the narrative. I, for one, hope they keep it up. It will only lead us to shine a greater spotlight on their fatal flaws and ultimately expose corporate newsrooms as the largely charlatan operations that they have become. And when the chickens finally come home to roost, it must be acknowledged that this failing industry will have wrought its own demise by shilling for the followers of a failed ideology.

UPDATE:Here is the segment where Keith Olbermann exposes the story:

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Conference Review

As the Netroots Nation conference winds down, I feel a renewed sense of purpose in advocating meaningful change in this country. I was able to meet some real leaders, match faces and voices to screen names and eloquent digital rants, and network with other offline activists in the Beltway progressive circuit. I got to see Austin, a city to which I officially want to
move.... or at least visit again soon! And of course, I learned about new organizing tools and enhanced my depth of knowledge in issue areas like energy policy and campaign finance.

Here are some highlights of my experience at NN08:
  • The inspiring speech by Howard Dean Thursday night;
  • Al Gore's impromptu appearance yesterday morning, he is truly a political rock star;
  • The Energize America panel featuring the venerable Jerome a Paris and a trio of top-tier candidates;
  • Sharing a table with Leutisha Stills of Jack and Jill Politics as she vented out loud in advance of what would become a searing critique of the Kos-Harold Ford debate.
  • Getting the chance to hear Larry Lessig, an amazing presenter and former colleague of Obama's at Chicago Law School, now running a groundbreaking ethics reform operation called Change Congress;
  • A panel last evening with Ezra Klein and others about how to capture this unique opportunity for a dominant social democratic movement.
  • And of course, partying hard in the great city of Austin.
Next year in Pittsburgh!

Friday, July 18, 2008

Question for Harold Ford

Here at Netroots Nation, we were just treated to a very civilized lunch debate between Markos and DLC Chair Harold Ford. In general, Mr. Ford was able to muddle the issues effectively enough to avoid drawing the ire of the (obviously) pro-grassroots crowd. One thing that particularly frustrated me, however, was his claim that he had to take very conservative positions on some issues because the demographics of his district demanded it. He represented Memphis until 2006 when he ran a less-than-spectacular failed senatorial campaign. Memphis is one of the most economically devastated inner cities in the nation, and experienced more foreclosures per capita than almost any other Congressional district. Mr. Ford voted for the anti-debtor bankruptcy bill, blocked lending and housing reforms throughout his congressional tenure, and continually supported free-trade, anti-worker policies. Ford now represents an organization that believes that in order to win, Democrats must take positions on many issues that look much like Republican stances. Now I've always been perplexed about this belief, and the following question occurred to me:
If DLC Democrats think conservative policies are so popular, then why do conservatives themselves find it so hard to speak about the issues in plain terms?
They resort to pithy, misleading catch phrases and outright personal smears to control the debate. Frank Luntz and friends have said outright that the country at large finds conservative policies unpopular if expressed honestly. Although I stood in line to ask the above question, I was unfortunately unable to do so due to time constraints. I hope that by posting it here, this question will reach Mr. Ford or one of his ideological brethren who can provide a legitimate answer.