Bees Disappearing?!?!?!

Okay, I don't like bees. Never have. But this is just freaky.

VISALIA, Calif., Feb. 23 — David Bradshaw has endured countless stings during his life as a beekeeper, but he got the shock of his career when he opened his boxes last month and found half of his 100 million bees missing.

In 24 states throughout the country, beekeepers have gone through similar shocks as their bees have been disappearing inexplicably at an alarming rate, threatening not only their livelihoods but also the production of numerous crops, including California almonds, one of the nation’s most profitable.

“I have never seen anything like it,” Mr. Bradshaw, 50, said from an almond orchard here beginning to bloom. “Box after box after box are just empty. There’s nobody home.”

The sudden mysterious losses are highlighting the critical link that honeybees play in the long chain that gets fruit and vegetables to supermarkets and dinner tables across the country.

Apparently, the experts still have no idea why this is happening. Via DailyKos, here is an account of ongoing efforts at solving this alarming riddle.

Do any of you know more about this? If so, please post a comment or e-mail me whatever you know and I'll post an update.

Gonzo's Last Stand

Today, Alberto Gonzales testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee. The embattled Attorney General has a chance to explain his true role in the US Attorney Scandal and clarify conflicting statements that have been made by numerous administration officials. Gonzales faces a daunting task: clear his own name and save his job, all the while avoiding language that would incriminate his superiors (Bush, Cheney and Rove). Given the deluge of contradictions in the magically shape-shifting official administration story, this may be nearly impossible.
Via Media Matters, just some of the misinformation peddled by the administration:

1. Attorneys were dismissed for "performance-related" issues
2. Bush dismissals comparable to Clinton's '93 dismissals
3. Clinton fired Arkansas U.S. attorney to avoid Whitewater investigation
4. McKay shirked responsibility to investigate voter fraud allegations
5. Under new law, Bush still cannot appoint interim U.S. attorneys indefinitely
6. Since the president has the authority to fire any or all U.S. attorneys, the administration's only problem is a failure to be "forthcoming"

There have also been massive inconsistencies as to Gonzo's role in the UNPRECEDENTED firings: he has said at different times that he made the decision, he approved the decision, and that he was not involved in the decision-making process.

We will see how deep and probing the questions get in clarifying said role, and hopefully our Senators will not accept repeated talking points that have already been refuted. Unfortunately, something tells me that not only will the follow-up questions from most Senators be limited in calling "BS", but some will actively mimic the talking points du jour (Cornyn, Sessions).

But let us not forget: this testimony at its core is about so much more than this singular scandal. It strikes at the heart of the Bush Administration's core governing philosophy. Gonzo, aka Abu Gonzalez, has been at the core of this administration's disdain for the rule of law and the oversight role of Congress. This man has been the prime architect of the current US government approval of torture, arguing that the Geneva Conventions and other international treaties do not apply to those swine who may have *gasp* wished harm upon the United States. Needless to say, this is an untenable and hypocritical argument. He has strongly argued and acted in accordance with the concept of the Unitary Executive. No matter how much he denies involvement now, Gonzo has repeatedly advocated the need for greater Presidential power in ability to conduct foreign policy, declare war, choose when to follow or disregard laws, and appoint officials without Senate approval.

Let us hope this testimony will represent the rock finally beginning to be turned over, exposing the dark underbelly of the Bush Administration's gutting and politicization of government agencies. It started with the EPA in 2001, and has moved on to almost every agency in the nation. This damage may take at least a generation to fix; sadly, this will be the lasting legacy of the Bush Presidency.

The time to start reverse the damage has come. Let it begin with Gonzales' removal as Attorney General.

Ridiculously Early Senate 2008 Roundup - D Seats

This is part 2 of my Senate roundup, which looks at the 12 Democratic seats up for re-election and analyzes each individual race. The Republican outlook predicts 5 Dem pickups, and (at the risk of spoiling the rest of this post) 1 GOP pickup, bringing the total for the 111th Congress to 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. If Lieberman switches sides, then he can go Cheney himself and enjoy irrelevance in the minority party.

And just in case you were wondering, all the analysis and ratings are my own.

Once again, the ratings go from 1-10, in this case 1 is a definite R pickup and 10 is a definite D hold. The list is in alphabetical order by state.

Here goes:

Arkansas - Mark Pryor (seeking 2nd term)
Key Republicans: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (maybe), Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Holt, etc.
Notes: Much of this race depends on what Huckabee decides. At the moment, he seems to be pursuing a run for President and getting absolutely nowhere. It's still highly possible that Huckabee goes for this Senate seat, at which point it becomes a top-tier race. Otherwise, Pryor is a solid favorite.
Rating: 8 (D Favored) - would become a 6 if Huckabee switches gears.

Delaware - Joe Biden (seeking 7th term)
Key Republican: Rep. Mike Castle
Notes: Biden still seems to think he's running for President. It shouldn't have any bearing on his Senate seat though, since the filing deadline in Delaware is well after the primary process is finished. He'll win again if he runs as expected. If he doesn't or becomes Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, his son Beau Biden will take on Castle in an interesting matchup.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)

Illinois - Majority Whip Dick Durbin (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunners, many possible
Notes: Durbin became an key player in Congress with the Dem takeover of the Senate. In addition to his Beltway status, he is pretty popular back home. Since the Illinois GOP seems to be slowly crumbling away, I can't see him going anywhere.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)

Iowa - Tom Harkin (probably seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham, Businessman Steve Rathje
Notes: Harkin hasn't officially decided whether he'll run again, but he'd be crazy not to. He should win if he does, he's beaten sitting Republican Congressmen four straight elections and is great on agricultural subsidies, probably the most important issue in Iowa. Even if he's on the fence, Schumer will convince him to jump back in. I also want to mention he was a key establishment endorser of Howard Dean's campaign in '04.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)

Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: many
Notes: This is the first top-tier target for Republicans, and their most likely shot at defeating a healthy incumbent. Landrieu won her 2002 re-election with just 52%, and that was before Katrina and the exodus from heavily Democratic New Orleans. Yet Landrieu has handled her situation with savvy and finesse, rebounding nicely in the polls due to her visibility in seeking federal aid for victims and rebuilding efforts. Her most formidable potential challenger, Rep. Bobby Jindal, is looking like he will be elected Governor this November, and the Republicans lack other top-tier candidates. However, this will still be a tough race given the political climate in a state trending red.
Rating: 7 (Leans D) - The one seat in which the DSCC will need to devote massive resources to playing defense (with the possible exception of NJ).

Massachusetts - John Kerry (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Swift Boat Veterans Founder Jerome Corsi (because there's really nobody else)
Notes: Zzzzzzz. Many of us Bay Staters don't really love Kerry that much, especially after his pathetic performance in '04. But luckily for him, he's in Massachusetts. 85% of both legislative houses are Dems, we just elected an (allegedly) progressive Dem Governor, and all twelve federal elected officials are Democrats. Get the point? Massachusetts is a one-party state, and this is Kerry's seat as long as he wants it.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)

Michigan - Carl Levin (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunner, but many strong potential candidates
Notes: Now Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Levin is a solid Democratic loyalist who has been a strong critic of the Iraq war. That is a plus in Michigan, a state that had been flirting with purple-dom until about a year ago, when the state's voters seemed to remember that Republican politicians hate the working class and that's why they always vote D. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Levin should be fine.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)

Montana - Max Baucus (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Denny Rehberg (maybe), other strong potential candidates
Notes: Baucus, known primarily as a centrist budget hawk, is an anomaly in Montana politics as a long-standing popular Democrat. Although the state has been trending towards the Dems in recent years with the elections of Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, it is still a tough political landscape for Baucus. He only beat Rehberg by 20,000 votes in 1996, and a rematch could be just as competitive in the right environment. However, I believe the issues that propelled Tester to victory (corruption, big government) will work to Baucus' advantage this time around and ensure his re-election.
Rating: 7 (Leans D)

New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (seeking 5th term, 2nd in this seat)
Key Republicans: Tom Kean, Jr. (2006 Senate nominee)
Potential Democratic Challengers: Reps. Robert Andrews, Frank Pallone
Notes: Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other politician in Joisey. I really hope the GOP thinks they can take this one and wastes a bunch of $ in NJ's expensive media market, further jading already cynical voters with filthy attack ads while not doing anything to change their minds.
Rating: 8 (D Favored)

Rhode Island - Jack Reed (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Former Cranston Mayor and 2006 Senate Candidate Stephen Laffey
Notes: Reed has one of the highest approval ratings of any Democratic Senator, as a leading voice on military issues and loyal Democrat. Preznit Bush has approval in the mid-20s. You do the math.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)

South Dakota - Tim Johnson (likely seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Gov. Mike Rounds (undeclared)
Key Democrats (if Johnson doesn't run): Rep. Stephanie Herseth
Notes: Easily the strangest situation I've seen since I started following politics. Okay, maybe the '04 race in Illinois where the waters seemed to part for Obama was in the same ballpark. But Johnson's stroke throws a extra kink into an already complicated situation. Ironically, his health issues may work to his advantage, as Republicans have been forced to hold off the attack dogs for fear of looking callous and cruel. Hahaha. This should be their top target this year, since Johnson was already endangered before his stroke. If Gov. Rounds enters the race it will be at least a toss-up. Johnson seems to be preparing for an election race and has been raising money. However, if he is unable or otherwise chooses not to pursue re-election, Rep. Herseth would make a formidable challenger. Like I said, it's a strange situation with a ton of question marks.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - No matter what, this race will probably come down to election day turnout.

West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito; '06 Sen. nominee John Raese (neither has declared)
Notes: Capito may have a chance, but may not want to sacrifice her relatively safe House seat unless she really thinks she can win. If she decides otherwise, Rockefeller should win with 58-60% of the vote.
Rating: 9 (Probable D) - Unless something drastic changes in the national landscape, this seat stays D.
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So there you have it. Anybody who made it this far, please comment with thoughts/suggestions/rants.

Ridiculously Early Senate 2008 Roundup - R Seats

Just in case the presidential horse race weren't enough to deal with in an "off" year, I figure I'll provide an overview of the Senate landscape for the junkies out there.

Things are looking extremely positive for the Democrats, with 21 GOP Senators up for re-election and only 12 Dems. That would make for a promising outlook even in any year, but 2008 will be no ordinary year. The issues that plagued the Rs this past November will get no better, I really can't see how ANY of them possibly could, and the Iraq Debacle should continue to fester.

And here's some more food for thought. The six seats that flipped in '06 were in a much tougher year: 15 GOP seats and 18 Dem. If as in the past election cycle Dems take 40% of the Republican seats and hold all their own, they will be sitting pretty at that magical 60-seat supermajority. With a Democrat in the White House, the Repugs will be all but powerless.

Let's run down each race one by one, by state alphabetical order. Each race is ranked 1-10; 1 being definitely GOP, 10 being definitely Dem. These are completely my opinions, based on what I have read and seen. Here goes:

Republican Seats

Alabama - Jeff Sessions (seeking 3rd term)
Key opponent: Ron Sparks, State Agriculture Commissioner
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Sparks could make it interesting, but it's still Alabama

Alaska - Ted "aluminum tubes" Stevens (seeking 7th term)
Key opponent: none as of yet
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - In AK, competence or integrity seems not to be an issue

Colorado - OPEN (Wayne Allard is retiring)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall (Williams grad!) - son of the legendary Morris Udall and damn popular in his own right
Key Republican: former Rep. Scott McInnis
Rating: 7 (Leaning D) - I'm already ready to call this one for Udall

Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (seeking 2nd term)
Key opponent: no clear favorite, but decent crop
Notes: Democrats are chomping at the bit over this one; Chambliss was the fellow who beat Max Cleland in 2002, using dirty campaign tactics that questioned the patriotism of a triple amputee war veteran.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Chambliss unfortunately is pretty popular, as Georgia is one of the few states still trending red.

Idaho - Larry Craig (may not seek a 4th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republicans: Rep. Mike Simpson; Fmr Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez
Notes: This race will be very hard to rate if Craig declines a run. Most are saying, however, that he will probably in fact run, so the current rating is under that assumption. LaRocco, a Veteran, will having to run in the style of Jim Webb to have a chance.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - LaRocco could be a decent challenger, but Craig is well-liked, and is the clear favorite if he chooses to run.

Kansas - Pat Roberts (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: none to my knowledge
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Forget this one. Roberts is a legend. Like Stevens, he's a horrible man but great politician.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (Senate Minority Leader, seeking 5th term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Notes: Dems would LOVE to exact revenge for Daschle in '04 and take down the other party's top dawg. McConnell is the king of an imploding KY GOP, so it could be interesting. However, most of the top D prospects are balking at this race, looking more at the Gov race this year or Bunning's much more vulnerable seat in '10. My guess is at least one of these prospects jumps in and makes it a race. Stay tuned.......
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - This one could get interesting, but will only flip in another wave election.

Maine - Susan Collins (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Allen
Notes: This is a first-tier race. Allen is a popular six-term House incumbent with solid statewide name recognition. Look for an insane amount of $$ per capita to get pumped into this state come fall '08.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Collins is my top pick to get Chaffee'd, a popular moderate GOP Senator in a state rapidly trending blue.

Minnesota - Norm Coleman (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Al Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Attorney Mike Ciresi, etc.
Notes: More than anybody else, I personally want to see Coleman's head on a skewer. So do many Minnesotans, after the circumstances of his previous victory. If it weren't for Paul Wellstone's tragic plane crash on the eve of the '02 election, he would be the overwhelming favorite to once again retain this seat. The sketchy circumstances of Wellstone's death and the Republican smear job in the aftermath of his memorial service are probably what has prompted Franken to run. Man, would it be fun to see him on the Senate floor.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - If Franken proves he can be taken seriously, this becomes a 7. If not, it's anybody's race.

Mississippi - Thad Cochran (seeking 6th term)
Key Democrats: State Atty General Michael Moore
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Assuming Cochran doesn't unexpectedly retire, forget about this one and move on.

Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (possibly seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey
Notes: This situation is too nebulous to tell for sure. Hagel may or may not run for President, and at the same time may or may not run to keep this seat. Either way, it will probably stay in Republican hands.
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - I can't see a way this becomes a D pickup unless something drastically changes.

New Hampshire - John Sununu (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand; Katrina Swett
Notes: Sununu is undoubtedly a top Democratic target. Given the '06 tidal wave that gave Gov. John Lynch (D) 71% of the vote, flipped both Congressional seats to the Dems and saw unbelievable D gains in the state legislature, it will be hard for Sununu to win without further distancing himself from the national party.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Too early to get a sense of who will be giving Sununu the fight of his political life.

New Mexico - Pete Domenici (may or may not seek 7th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Tom Udall; Atty General Patricia Madrid; Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez
Key Republicans: Rep. Heather Wilson, Rep. Steve Pearce
Notes: This one is completely in flux. If Domenici runs as he has said he plans to do, he probably wins. But he is waist-deep in the US Attorney scandal and rumors have been circulating that his mental faculties are declining. If he retires, this could go either way.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - I'm splitting the difference between a definite Domenici win and a toss-up. Hopefully both he and Heather Wilson get dragged down in Attorneygate.

North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: no standouts as of yet. Popular Gov. Mike Easley is not interested.
Notes: Dole is considered somewhat vulnerable, but it will take the right candidate and situation for her to be beaten. There are many possible challengers out there, but nobody stands out as a true superstar. For now, Dole has to be considered a clear favorite.
Rating: 3 (R Favored)- This is a sleeper race. Stay tuned.....

Oklahoma - James "Global warming and evolution are hoaxes" Inhofe (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats:???
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Inhofe is certifiably nuts, but it's Oklahoma. Not a state I'll be visiting anytime soon.

Oregon - Gordon Smith (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Earl Blumenauer; many others
Key Republicans: Antitax zealot Bill Sizemore
Notes: The antitax group Club for Growth has announced they are targeting Smith in this election. Keep in mind they backed Steven Laffey in RI against Chaffee, and almost knocked off Arlen Specter in '04. Smith is the favorite here, but in the end may not be able to withstand spirited attacks from both sides.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - If Blumenauer runs, this probably becomes to a 4.

South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Key Republicans: none yet, but primary challenge possible
Notes: For some reason, Graham is considered a maverick and may draw a challenge from some moonbat Bible-thumper. I'm not too worried about him. My advice to Democrats: don't waste your energy here.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Nothing much to see here. Will probably become a 1 soon.

Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: likely no top-tier challengers
Notes: While Alexander can probably be beaten, there's just nobody to do it this time around.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)

Texas - John Cornyn (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: many, but no top-tier challengers
Notes: God, I hate Cornyn's guts. To give you a sense, he was a leader in the Senate effort to push through radical conservative federal judges in '05. And he was on the Texas Supreme Court with Abu Gonzalez in the '90s. I hope somebody gives him a run for his money, but I just don't see it right now.
Rating: 2 (Probable R)

Virginia - John Warner (may or may not seek 6th term)
Key Democrat: Mark Warner (prob only runs if John doesn't)
Key Republican: Rep. Tom Davis
Notes: Like in NM, everything rides on whether John Warner runs again. Warner will be 80 on election day and may not have the stomach for what will be a bruising election battle. Mark Warner is the other real x-factor here, since he may opt to seek the Vice Presidential slot or run for Governor in '09. My guess is he only runs in an open seat where he is the clear favorite.
Rating: 4 (Leaning R) - This rating is a placeholder until the race becomes more defined.

Wyoming - Michael Enzi (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: '06 Congressional nominee Gary Trauner (may choose House rematch)
Notes: Trauner was a hair's breadth away from winning a statewide Congressional seat in this reddest of red states, and is the only Democrat at this point with any prayer of taking out Enzi. My guess is he goes for the rematch against Barbara Cubin, and wins this time.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)

Summary: 12 Safe Republican, 5 Possible Pickups, 3 Toss-Ups, 1 Likely Pickup

Estimated Pickups: 5