Senate Rankings, 10/5/07
Dem Seats (12):
Arkansas (Pryor): 9 (Probable D) - Purplish red state, no strong Republican challenger has emerged. Pryor might also benefit if Clinton wins the nomination.
Delaware (Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Illinois (Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Iowa (Harkin): 9 (Probable D) - GOP would love to challenge Harkin but don't seem to have good candidates and the incumbent is pretty popular.
Louisiana (Landrieu): 6 (Barely D) - Treasurer John Kennedy recently switched parties and is looking like the top challenger at the moment.
Massachusetts (Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Michigan (Levin): 9 (Probable D) - If they couldn't make it close against Debbie Stabenow last year, they certainly won't beat the powerful Sen. Levin.
Montana (Baucus): 8 (D Favored) - Surprisingly, it looks like the GOP won't put up a strong fight for this seat. Baucus has done a great job of scaring away potential challengers.
New Jersey (Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D) - Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other NJ politician. Rove badly miscalculated by gunning for Menendez last year.
Rhode Island (Reed): 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota (Johnson): 7 (Leans D) - Johnson is healthy and likely running again; his brain hemorrhage has actually served as a political boon in defusing GOP attacks. No elite challenger has emerged and chances are none will unless he retires.
West Virginia (Rockefeller): 9 (Probable D)
Dem Seat Totals (12):
Definite D - 4
Probable D - 5
D Favored - 1
Leans D - 1
Barely D - 1
Estimated GOP Pickups: 0-1
Republican Seats (22):
Alabama (Sessions): 1 (Definite R) - Dems lost hope of getting this seat when Ron Sparks declined a challenge.
Alaska (Stevens): 3 (R Favored) - An institution in Alaska and probably the most corrupt Senator, Stevens continues to be embroiled in scandal and it remains to be seen whether he can survive politically. Dems' top hope is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is still deciding whether to jump in. The dynamics of this race could change significantly over the next few months.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - This is a battle of two Congressmen, Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R). Udall is quite moderate in this purple state while Schaffer is, well, not. Schaffer also is involved in a developing scandal involving kickbacks while on the state Board of Ed. Either way, this is Udall's race to lose.
Georgia (Chambliss): 1 (Definite R) - Democrats hate Chambliss for comparing wounded war vet Max Cleland to Osama in his 2002 race, but it's Georgia. 'Nuff said.
Idaho (Craig?): 3 (R Favored) - This one gets more and more fun to watch. With Craig now finishing his term, it looks like a really bloody GOP primary is in the cards (think 10 candidates who all believe they rightfully deserve the seat). And with this in mind, Craig may decide that he can win a primary in a divided field and things would get really interesting. Meanwhile, Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco is crisscrossing the state, building name recognition and championing a strong populist message. Stay tuned.
Kansas (Roberts): 2 (Probable R) - It remains to be seen whether Dems can field a challenger capable of knocking off Roberts, but if ever possible it will be this year. Roberts has never been more unpopular among Kansans. Rumors have former Rep. Jim Slattery jumping in.
Kentucky (McConnell): 3 (R Favored) - Democrats see McConnell as potential payback for then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle's defeat in '04. They have a solid candidate in Atty General Greg Stumbo. Can they keep up with McConnell in the money game? That will likely decide whether this race is serious or not.
Maine (Collins): 5 (Barely R) - I see this as a major bellwhether race of the Senate '08 elections, along with Oregon. Rep. Tom Allen is a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough, close, nasty race. Senator Collins has this moderate grandmother image but if the Dems can make this a referendum on Iraq, Allen wins. And Collins' recent dirty attacks on Allen may make it possible for Allen to debunk her reputation as a consensus-builder.
Minnesota (Coleman): 6 (Barely D) - Al Franken gets a slight edge here for outraising Coleman two quarters in a row, even with Bu$h coming to town in August. It is actually a great sign that Franken's name has been off the radar recently; this means he's playing the grassroots game and building local relationships Wellstone-style. Franken has a legitimate primary challenger in attorney Mike Ciresi, but Franken's name recognition and reputation as a fighter should win him the nomination. In any case, this will be a nasty race.
Mississippi (Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Nebraska (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - This will probably be a close race, with two top Republican candidates and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey likely to run. However, too many x-factors here to get a definitive read.
New Hampshire (Sununu): 7 (Leans D) - Oddly, the incumbent Sununu is a clear underdog now that popular former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen is running. This is her race to lose.
New Mexico (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - The pieces are still falling into place following Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement. Republican Rep. Heather Wilson is in, and her GOP colleague Rep. Steve Pearce might run as well. Wilson is moderate but plagued by the same US Attorney scandal that brought down Sen. Domenici, and Pearce may be too conservative to win a statewide race. While top Dems Gov. Richardson and Rep. Udall have declined a Senate run, Lt. Gov Diane Denish and Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez are considering bids and both would make solid candidates. Stay tuned.
North Carolina (Dole): 3 (R Favored) - Dole is very vulnerable, but still no serious Democratic challenger has emerged. This will have to move down to a 2 if none steps forward soon.
Oklahoma (Inhofe): 2 (Probable R) - It's Oklahoma, but Inhofe is crazy enough to be susceptible to a challenge from a fighting reality-based Democrat. State Sen. Andrew Rice is only 34, but could make things interesting given the right circumstances.
Oregon (Smith): 4 (Leans R) - Along with Maine, this is a top bellwether race of '08. The Dems got their top challenger in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith will be very well funded and will definitely fight for his seat, but the R next to his name might be too much to overcome. We shall see. If Merkley wins, expect Dems to get close to a 60-seat supermajority.
South Carolina (Graham): 1 (Definite R) - Lindsey Graham's only real challenge may come from the right. A bruising primary is likely.
Tennessee (Alexander): 3 (R Favored) - It looks like businessman and Gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is going to run, and he has the finances and name recognition to give Alexander a run for his money. Stay tuned.
Texas (Cornyn): 3 (R Favored) - Most sane people hate Cornyn, a bully-like hyperpartisan and Bush crony. State Rep. Rick Noriega is running a smart grassroots campaign, and seems to be holding his own in fundraising. He faces a primary challenge from attorney Mikal Watts, but Noriega is the guy who can take down Cornyn.
Virginia (OPEN): 8 (D Favored) - This seat should remain in the hands of a guy named Warner, but it will be a different Warner. With John out and Mark in, the highly popular former Governor is the clear favorite no matter who emerges from a nasty GOP primary.
Wyoming (Enzi): 1 (Definite R) - Probably will be the only unopposed Republican.
Wyoming (Barasso): 1 (Definite R) - John Barasso, the appointee to this seat following the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, might face token opposition from the Democrats, but the only seemingly decent challenger on the D side, Gary Trauner, is running for the House.
GOP Seat Totals (22):
Definite R: 6
Probable R: 2
R Favored: 6
Leans R: 1
Toss-Ups (Barely R or D): 4
Leans D: 2
D Favored: 1
Estimated Dem Pickups: 5-9
111th Congress Estimated Party Breakdown: 58 D*, 42 R
*D's include Independent Sens. Sanders and Lieberman
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
my new op-ed piece
Corporate Priorities in the Post-Enron Era
by Jeremy Koulish
August 15, 2007
Ford Motor Company is struggling through a period of great turmoil. Due to changing market dynamics and increased global competition, Ford suffered losses of $12.6 billion last year, the largest of any Fortune 500 company.
To rehabilitate its bottom line, Ford hired Alan Mulally as its new President & CEO starting September 1st, 2006. But given its financial woes, the company rewarded the incoming Chief Executive much too lavishly.
In addition to a cash hiring bonus of $7.5 million, Mr. Mulally received $11 million as restitution for forfeited stock options at Boeing. He was also awarded a $666,667 salary and stock and option grants of an additional $19.6 million. For the cherry on top, Mr. Mulally has taken advantage of perks like personal use of the company jet, relocation reimbursements, temporary housing, free tax preparation and even a 401(k) contribution. His total earnings for four months of leadership came to $39,128,1001.
Such generous perks undermine the reason for Mr. Mulally’s hiring. He was brought in to oversee a cost-cutting strategy that involves layoffs and decreased production. Originally employing 99,500 people in North America in December 2005, Ford plans to lay off around 40-45% of those workers and close nine factories by the end of next year.2 Towns such as Maumee, Ohio will be left economically devastated by the departure of their largest employer3; thus, Mr. Mulally’s “success” has hastened the erosion of communities his company has helped to thrive for the past century.
Now how does it look when employee layoffs follow Mr Mulally’s hiring perks? While it is tempting to scapegoat Ford’s Board of Directors, they are legally obligated to maximize shareholder value at the expense of all other priorities, and the ethical problem of mass layoffs must not stand in the way of this goal. And a massive payday for their incoming CEO is the rule rather than the exception. In the company’s own words, “these terms were necessary, competitive, and appropriate to attract an executive of Mr. Mulally’s talent and experience.”4 Thus, is more usefully seen as an instructive example of how much of
Sadly, instances of such unethical behavior are all too easy to find in this post-Enron era. Granted, tightened SEC regulation has limited the market instability caused by the accounting magic of Enron and others.5 Yet today, examples of other forms of malfeasance seem endless: using government connections to secure lucrative no-bid contracts,6 forcing call center workers in India to fake Midwestern accents7, handing out Medicaid applications to new employees8, paying an incoming CEO $39 million while laying off 40,000 workers. One cannot help but feel that the concept of getting ahead by playing by the rules has disappeared from mainstream corporate ideology.
With selfishness running rampant, tax structures have followed suit. In 1957, at the midpoint of the Eisenhower administration, Americans earning the equivalent of $5.2 million paid 51.6% of their incomes in federal income tax. Today, those making a similar amount pay a paltry 26.7%.9 Factoring in government policies that have steadily eroded the social safety net, it is clear why the richest 1% of Americans have accumulated six times more wealth since 1983 than the poorest 90%.10
But does inequality really matter? After all, many pro-market cheerleaders would have us believe that placing checks and balances on the financial activities of
Thankfully, some viable solutions are already on the table. As a first step, the US House recently passed “Say on Pay” legislation that grants shareholders a nonbinding vote on executive compensation, and other introduced legislation would restrict the tax deductibility of a CEO salary to 25 times the earnings of that company’s lowest-paid worker. Various proposals have suggested restructuring the corporate tax framework to reward socially responsible policies rather than the use of loopholes.
Then there is the ultimate solution: raise taxes on the extremely wealthy and treat capital gains as income. Not only would this fundamental reform restore the federal budget to a solvent level and open up funds for regulatory and social welfare programs, it would help restore the trust and sense of shared responsibility that characterize any truly healthy society.
If this were the case, perhaps Ford would have chosen to take that $39 million and hire back some 1,324 of its laid-off employees.13
Sources
1 Obtained from an Associated Press study of executive pay for leading US companies, released June 11, 2007
2 Ford’s 2006 Annual Report, page 13
3 Julie M. McKinnon, “Small Towns in Area Feel Sting of Job Losses”,
4 Ford’s Definitive Proxy Statement, Schedule 14A, released 4/5/07. p.42
5 Greg Farrell, “Sarbanes-Oxley Law Has Been a Pretty Clean Sweep”,
6 Michael Dobbs, “Halliburton’s Deals Greater than Thought”, Washington Post, August 28th, 2003
7 From the author’s own experience
8 Susan Chambers Memo to the Wal-Mart Board of Directors, New York Times, 10/26/05
9 Sam Pizzigati, “What If? Imagining a More Equal
10 Edward N. Wolff, Recent Trends in Households Wealth in the United States, The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No. 502, June 2007
11 John A. Byrne and Lindsey Gerdes, “The Man Who Invented Management: Why Peter Drucker’s Ideas Still Matter”, Business Week, November 28, 2005
12 Calculated by the authors of Executive Excess: The Staggering Social Cost of U.S. Business Leadership, Institute for Policy Studies, August 2007
13 Ibid. Average hourly wage for US manufacturing workers was obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and used in calculating this figure
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Defending Rangel on the Draft
I was talking with a co-worker today about American military policy and the draft. He likes the idea of ending the war and scaling down the size of the military, which would be expected from someone working for Save Darfur. He then proceeded to deride my NY Congressman Charles Rangel for introducing a proposal to bring back the draft. "Under no circumstances," he said, should anyone be forced to participate in war."
My response: yes and no. As with most issues, the situation fails to fit neatly into a black-or-white worldview. Certainly war is hell, and someone unwillingly dragged into battle can be seen as the victim of a grave injustice. Not to mention a less efficient warrior than a volunteer soldier, and thus harmful to the goals of a nation. However, we must be aware of a different view of the warmongering impulse in contemporary American society. A worldview that champions a policy of aggressive empire rather than acknowledging military action as an undesirable failure of diplomatic finesse and a last resort. These factions currently control the foreign policy apparatus of the US government, and wish to reap the benefits of war without sharing in the sacrifice.
Getting around the usual media distortion, bickering in the left and cheerleading in the right blogospheres, it is clear Rangel is focusing on this second point when he advocates bringing back the draft. He, like myself, is tired of "chickenhawks" who cheerlead and manage the war from afar but do not help pay the costs through higher taxes and family members in combat. The online contingent of chickenhawk apologists has been slapped with what I consider to be the most harshly hilarious of any political moniker I have heard: The 101st Division of Fighting Keyboardists. Re-institution of a draft, and the accompanying potential for responsibility on the part of said chickenhawks, would evaporate support for the Iraq War faster than you could say "JESUS SUPPORTS TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!"
I may be biased as a (kind of) constituent, but I'm pretty sure Rangel doesn't actually intend for there to be a draft. He envisions a very uncomfortable scenario for GOP warmongers when this bill is considered, followed by some beautiful campaign fodder for '08. Besides, a reality-based discussion is long overdue regarding how neocons plan to execute the future wars of conquest their grand plans have in store.
Just picture this scenario. Rangel joins with some hawkish Republican (Duncan Hunter?) in introducing a bipartisan measure that will reinstate a universal draft. No lottery; EVERYONE must perform at least two years of national service, be it with the military or performing community service. While not openly advocating for the implementation of the draft, House Dem leadership backs the move, proclaiming it a good tool with which to discuss the prospects of future threats and the national security needs of the United States.
In this discussion, we could finally talk plainly about the empty words of Republicans. How they claim to support the troops, but do no such thing. They stretch out enrollment and force multiple tours of duty on young men and women, capitalizing their patriotism while wearing it thin. Top generals are now openly advocating in support of the Democratic position on the Iraq Fiasco. Maybe Democratic leaders can whip their caucus on this point. It is time to take a stand, and either support and a draft or leave Iraq.
That is an easy choice for Democrats if the vote hits the floor. At least it better be. Unanimous NAY to the bill in question, possibly excepting Rangel himself. The choice for Republicans, however, is much more excruciating. Support a measure that if adopted would guarantee the hemorrhaging of a whole generation of young adults from the party, or open themselves up to attack as not truly caring about our national security by overstretching the military. Either way, '08 Democratic challengers have generated a brutal attack ad, with little electoral harm done to their incumbents.
Of course, this would be the smart thing to do and requires that Democrats act together. Naturally, Speaker Pelosi and other party leaders blasted Rangel and shot down the idea from the git-go. It is frustrating to see Republicans pull off the jujitsu strategy again and again, the most prescient example being the Tort Reform movement. Please note, Ms. Pelosi: jujitsu can work wonders, if you just give it a chance.
My response: yes and no. As with most issues, the situation fails to fit neatly into a black-or-white worldview. Certainly war is hell, and someone unwillingly dragged into battle can be seen as the victim of a grave injustice. Not to mention a less efficient warrior than a volunteer soldier, and thus harmful to the goals of a nation. However, we must be aware of a different view of the warmongering impulse in contemporary American society. A worldview that champions a policy of aggressive empire rather than acknowledging military action as an undesirable failure of diplomatic finesse and a last resort. These factions currently control the foreign policy apparatus of the US government, and wish to reap the benefits of war without sharing in the sacrifice.
Getting around the usual media distortion, bickering in the left and cheerleading in the right blogospheres, it is clear Rangel is focusing on this second point when he advocates bringing back the draft. He, like myself, is tired of "chickenhawks" who cheerlead and manage the war from afar but do not help pay the costs through higher taxes and family members in combat. The online contingent of chickenhawk apologists has been slapped with what I consider to be the most harshly hilarious of any political moniker I have heard: The 101st Division of Fighting Keyboardists. Re-institution of a draft, and the accompanying potential for responsibility on the part of said chickenhawks, would evaporate support for the Iraq War faster than you could say "JESUS SUPPORTS TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!"
I may be biased as a (kind of) constituent, but I'm pretty sure Rangel doesn't actually intend for there to be a draft. He envisions a very uncomfortable scenario for GOP warmongers when this bill is considered, followed by some beautiful campaign fodder for '08. Besides, a reality-based discussion is long overdue regarding how neocons plan to execute the future wars of conquest their grand plans have in store.
Just picture this scenario. Rangel joins with some hawkish Republican (Duncan Hunter?) in introducing a bipartisan measure that will reinstate a universal draft. No lottery; EVERYONE must perform at least two years of national service, be it with the military or performing community service. While not openly advocating for the implementation of the draft, House Dem leadership backs the move, proclaiming it a good tool with which to discuss the prospects of future threats and the national security needs of the United States.
In this discussion, we could finally talk plainly about the empty words of Republicans. How they claim to support the troops, but do no such thing. They stretch out enrollment and force multiple tours of duty on young men and women, capitalizing their patriotism while wearing it thin. Top generals are now openly advocating in support of the Democratic position on the Iraq Fiasco. Maybe Democratic leaders can whip their caucus on this point. It is time to take a stand, and either support and a draft or leave Iraq.
That is an easy choice for Democrats if the vote hits the floor. At least it better be. Unanimous NAY to the bill in question, possibly excepting Rangel himself. The choice for Republicans, however, is much more excruciating. Support a measure that if adopted would guarantee the hemorrhaging of a whole generation of young adults from the party, or open themselves up to attack as not truly caring about our national security by overstretching the military. Either way, '08 Democratic challengers have generated a brutal attack ad, with little electoral harm done to their incumbents.
Of course, this would be the smart thing to do and requires that Democrats act together. Naturally, Speaker Pelosi and other party leaders blasted Rangel and shot down the idea from the git-go. It is frustrating to see Republicans pull off the jujitsu strategy again and again, the most prescient example being the Tort Reform movement. Please note, Ms. Pelosi: jujitsu can work wonders, if you just give it a chance.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Bees Disappearing?!?!?!
Okay, I don't like bees. Never have. But this is just freaky.
Do any of you know more about this? If so, please post a comment or e-mail me whatever you know and I'll post an update.
Apparently, the experts still have no idea why this is happening. Via DailyKos, here is an account of ongoing efforts at solving this alarming riddle.VISALIA, Calif., Feb. 23 — David Bradshaw has endured countless stings during his life as a beekeeper, but he got the shock of his career when he opened his boxes last month and found half of his 100 million bees missing.
In 24 states throughout the country, beekeepers have gone through similar shocks as their bees have been disappearing inexplicably at an alarming rate, threatening not only their livelihoods but also the production of numerous crops, including California almonds, one of the nation’s most profitable.
“I have never seen anything like it,” Mr. Bradshaw, 50, said from an almond orchard here beginning to bloom. “Box after box after box are just empty. There’s nobody home.”
The sudden mysterious losses are highlighting the critical link that honeybees play in the long chain that gets fruit and vegetables to supermarkets and dinner tables across the country.
Do any of you know more about this? If so, please post a comment or e-mail me whatever you know and I'll post an update.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Gonzo's Last Stand
Today, Alberto Gonzales testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee. The embattled Attorney General has a chance to explain his true role in the US Attorney Scandal and clarify conflicting statements that have been made by numerous administration officials. Gonzales faces a daunting task: clear his own name and save his job, all the while avoiding language that would incriminate his superiors (Bush, Cheney and Rove). Given the deluge of contradictions in the magically shape-shifting official administration story, this may be nearly impossible.
Via Media Matters, just some of the misinformation peddled by the administration:
We will see how deep and probing the questions get in clarifying said role, and hopefully our Senators will not accept repeated talking points that have already been refuted. Unfortunately, something tells me that not only will the follow-up questions from most Senators be limited in calling "BS", but some will actively mimic the talking points du jour (Cornyn, Sessions).
But let us not forget: this testimony at its core is about so much more than this singular scandal. It strikes at the heart of the Bush Administration's core governing philosophy. Gonzo, aka Abu Gonzalez, has been at the core of this administration's disdain for the rule of law and the oversight role of Congress. This man has been the prime architect of the current US government approval of torture, arguing that the Geneva Conventions and other international treaties do not apply to those swine who may have *gasp* wished harm upon the United States. Needless to say, this is an untenable and hypocritical argument. He has strongly argued and acted in accordance with the concept of the Unitary Executive. No matter how much he denies involvement now, Gonzo has repeatedly advocated the need for greater Presidential power in ability to conduct foreign policy, declare war, choose when to follow or disregard laws, and appoint officials without Senate approval.
Let us hope this testimony will represent the rock finally beginning to be turned over, exposing the dark underbelly of the Bush Administration's gutting and politicization of government agencies. It started with the EPA in 2001, and has moved on to almost every agency in the nation. This damage may take at least a generation to fix; sadly, this will be the lasting legacy of the Bush Presidency.
The time to start reverse the damage has come. Let it begin with Gonzales' removal as Attorney General.
Via Media Matters, just some of the misinformation peddled by the administration:
1. Attorneys were dismissed for "performance-related" issuesThere have also been massive inconsistencies as to Gonzo's role in the UNPRECEDENTED firings: he has said at different times that he made the decision, he approved the decision, and that he was not involved in the decision-making process.
2. Bush dismissals comparable to Clinton's '93 dismissals
3. Clinton fired Arkansas U.S. attorney to avoid Whitewater investigation
4. McKay shirked responsibility to investigate voter fraud allegations
5. Under new law, Bush still cannot appoint interim U.S. attorneys indefinitely
6. Since the president has the authority to fire any or all U.S. attorneys, the administration's only problem is a failure to be "forthcoming"
We will see how deep and probing the questions get in clarifying said role, and hopefully our Senators will not accept repeated talking points that have already been refuted. Unfortunately, something tells me that not only will the follow-up questions from most Senators be limited in calling "BS", but some will actively mimic the talking points du jour (Cornyn, Sessions).
But let us not forget: this testimony at its core is about so much more than this singular scandal. It strikes at the heart of the Bush Administration's core governing philosophy. Gonzo, aka Abu Gonzalez, has been at the core of this administration's disdain for the rule of law and the oversight role of Congress. This man has been the prime architect of the current US government approval of torture, arguing that the Geneva Conventions and other international treaties do not apply to those swine who may have *gasp* wished harm upon the United States. Needless to say, this is an untenable and hypocritical argument. He has strongly argued and acted in accordance with the concept of the Unitary Executive. No matter how much he denies involvement now, Gonzo has repeatedly advocated the need for greater Presidential power in ability to conduct foreign policy, declare war, choose when to follow or disregard laws, and appoint officials without Senate approval.
Let us hope this testimony will represent the rock finally beginning to be turned over, exposing the dark underbelly of the Bush Administration's gutting and politicization of government agencies. It started with the EPA in 2001, and has moved on to almost every agency in the nation. This damage may take at least a generation to fix; sadly, this will be the lasting legacy of the Bush Presidency.
The time to start reverse the damage has come. Let it begin with Gonzales' removal as Attorney General.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Ridiculously Early Senate 2008 Roundup - D Seats
This is part 2 of my Senate roundup, which looks at the 12 Democratic seats up for re-election and analyzes each individual race. The Republican outlook predicts 5 Dem pickups, and (at the risk of spoiling the rest of this post) 1 GOP pickup, bringing the total for the 111th Congress to 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. If Lieberman switches sides, then he can go Cheney himself and enjoy irrelevance in the minority party.
And just in case you were wondering, all the analysis and ratings are my own.
Once again, the ratings go from 1-10, in this case 1 is a definite R pickup and 10 is a definite D hold. The list is in alphabetical order by state.
Here goes:
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (seeking 2nd term)
Key Republicans: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (maybe), Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Holt, etc.
Notes: Much of this race depends on what Huckabee decides. At the moment, he seems to be pursuing a run for President and getting absolutely nowhere. It's still highly possible that Huckabee goes for this Senate seat, at which point it becomes a top-tier race. Otherwise, Pryor is a solid favorite.
Rating: 8 (D Favored) - would become a 6 if Huckabee switches gears.
Delaware - Joe Biden (seeking 7th term)
Key Republican: Rep. Mike Castle
Notes: Biden still seems to think he's running for President. It shouldn't have any bearing on his Senate seat though, since the filing deadline in Delaware is well after the primary process is finished. He'll win again if he runs as expected. If he doesn't or becomes Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, his son Beau Biden will take on Castle in an interesting matchup.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Illinois - Majority Whip Dick Durbin (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunners, many possible
Notes: Durbin became an key player in Congress with the Dem takeover of the Senate. In addition to his Beltway status, he is pretty popular back home. Since the Illinois GOP seems to be slowly crumbling away, I can't see him going anywhere.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Iowa - Tom Harkin (probably seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham, Businessman Steve Rathje
Notes: Harkin hasn't officially decided whether he'll run again, but he'd be crazy not to. He should win if he does, he's beaten sitting Republican Congressmen four straight elections and is great on agricultural subsidies, probably the most important issue in Iowa. Even if he's on the fence, Schumer will convince him to jump back in. I also want to mention he was a key establishment endorser of Howard Dean's campaign in '04.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: many
Notes: This is the first top-tier target for Republicans, and their most likely shot at defeating a healthy incumbent. Landrieu won her 2002 re-election with just 52%, and that was before Katrina and the exodus from heavily Democratic New Orleans. Yet Landrieu has handled her situation with savvy and finesse, rebounding nicely in the polls due to her visibility in seeking federal aid for victims and rebuilding efforts. Her most formidable potential challenger, Rep. Bobby Jindal, is looking like he will be elected Governor this November, and the Republicans lack other top-tier candidates. However, this will still be a tough race given the political climate in a state trending red.
Rating: 7 (Leans D) - The one seat in which the DSCC will need to devote massive resources to playing defense (with the possible exception of NJ).
Massachusetts - John Kerry (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Swift Boat Veterans Founder Jerome Corsi (because there's really nobody else)
Notes: Zzzzzzz. Many of us Bay Staters don't really love Kerry that much, especially after his pathetic performance in '04. But luckily for him, he's in Massachusetts. 85% of both legislative houses are Dems, we just elected an (allegedly) progressive Dem Governor, and all twelve federal elected officials are Democrats. Get the point? Massachusetts is a one-party state, and this is Kerry's seat as long as he wants it.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Michigan - Carl Levin (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunner, but many strong potential candidates
Notes: Now Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Levin is a solid Democratic loyalist who has been a strong critic of the Iraq war. That is a plus in Michigan, a state that had been flirting with purple-dom until about a year ago, when the state's voters seemed to remember that Republican politicians hate the working class and that's why they always vote D. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Levin should be fine.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Montana - Max Baucus (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Denny Rehberg (maybe), other strong potential candidates
Notes: Baucus, known primarily as a centrist budget hawk, is an anomaly in Montana politics as a long-standing popular Democrat. Although the state has been trending towards the Dems in recent years with the elections of Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, it is still a tough political landscape for Baucus. He only beat Rehberg by 20,000 votes in 1996, and a rematch could be just as competitive in the right environment. However, I believe the issues that propelled Tester to victory (corruption, big government) will work to Baucus' advantage this time around and ensure his re-election.
Rating: 7 (Leans D)
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (seeking 5th term, 2nd in this seat)
Key Republicans: Tom Kean, Jr. (2006 Senate nominee)
Potential Democratic Challengers: Reps. Robert Andrews, Frank Pallone
Notes: Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other politician in Joisey. I really hope the GOP thinks they can take this one and wastes a bunch of $ in NJ's expensive media market, further jading already cynical voters with filthy attack ads while not doing anything to change their minds.
Rating: 8 (D Favored)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Former Cranston Mayor and 2006 Senate Candidate Stephen Laffey
Notes: Reed has one of the highest approval ratings of any Democratic Senator, as a leading voice on military issues and loyal Democrat. Preznit Bush has approval in the mid-20s. You do the math.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (likely seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Gov. Mike Rounds (undeclared)
Key Democrats (if Johnson doesn't run): Rep. Stephanie Herseth
Notes: Easily the strangest situation I've seen since I started following politics. Okay, maybe the '04 race in Illinois where the waters seemed to part for Obama was in the same ballpark. But Johnson's stroke throws a extra kink into an already complicated situation. Ironically, his health issues may work to his advantage, as Republicans have been forced to hold off the attack dogs for fear of looking callous and cruel. Hahaha. This should be their top target this year, since Johnson was already endangered before his stroke. If Gov. Rounds enters the race it will be at least a toss-up. Johnson seems to be preparing for an election race and has been raising money. However, if he is unable or otherwise chooses not to pursue re-election, Rep. Herseth would make a formidable challenger. Like I said, it's a strange situation with a ton of question marks.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - No matter what, this race will probably come down to election day turnout.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito; '06 Sen. nominee John Raese (neither has declared)
Notes: Capito may have a chance, but may not want to sacrifice her relatively safe House seat unless she really thinks she can win. If she decides otherwise, Rockefeller should win with 58-60% of the vote.
Rating: 9 (Probable D) - Unless something drastic changes in the national landscape, this seat stays D.
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So there you have it. Anybody who made it this far, please comment with thoughts/suggestions/rants.
And just in case you were wondering, all the analysis and ratings are my own.
Once again, the ratings go from 1-10, in this case 1 is a definite R pickup and 10 is a definite D hold. The list is in alphabetical order by state.
Here goes:
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (seeking 2nd term)
Key Republicans: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (maybe), Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Holt, etc.
Notes: Much of this race depends on what Huckabee decides. At the moment, he seems to be pursuing a run for President and getting absolutely nowhere. It's still highly possible that Huckabee goes for this Senate seat, at which point it becomes a top-tier race. Otherwise, Pryor is a solid favorite.
Rating: 8 (D Favored) - would become a 6 if Huckabee switches gears.
Delaware - Joe Biden (seeking 7th term)
Key Republican: Rep. Mike Castle
Notes: Biden still seems to think he's running for President. It shouldn't have any bearing on his Senate seat though, since the filing deadline in Delaware is well after the primary process is finished. He'll win again if he runs as expected. If he doesn't or becomes Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, his son Beau Biden will take on Castle in an interesting matchup.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Illinois - Majority Whip Dick Durbin (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunners, many possible
Notes: Durbin became an key player in Congress with the Dem takeover of the Senate. In addition to his Beltway status, he is pretty popular back home. Since the Illinois GOP seems to be slowly crumbling away, I can't see him going anywhere.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Iowa - Tom Harkin (probably seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham, Businessman Steve Rathje
Notes: Harkin hasn't officially decided whether he'll run again, but he'd be crazy not to. He should win if he does, he's beaten sitting Republican Congressmen four straight elections and is great on agricultural subsidies, probably the most important issue in Iowa. Even if he's on the fence, Schumer will convince him to jump back in. I also want to mention he was a key establishment endorser of Howard Dean's campaign in '04.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: many
Notes: This is the first top-tier target for Republicans, and their most likely shot at defeating a healthy incumbent. Landrieu won her 2002 re-election with just 52%, and that was before Katrina and the exodus from heavily Democratic New Orleans. Yet Landrieu has handled her situation with savvy and finesse, rebounding nicely in the polls due to her visibility in seeking federal aid for victims and rebuilding efforts. Her most formidable potential challenger, Rep. Bobby Jindal, is looking like he will be elected Governor this November, and the Republicans lack other top-tier candidates. However, this will still be a tough race given the political climate in a state trending red.
Rating: 7 (Leans D) - The one seat in which the DSCC will need to devote massive resources to playing defense (with the possible exception of NJ).
Massachusetts - John Kerry (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Swift Boat Veterans Founder Jerome Corsi (because there's really nobody else)
Notes: Zzzzzzz. Many of us Bay Staters don't really love Kerry that much, especially after his pathetic performance in '04. But luckily for him, he's in Massachusetts. 85% of both legislative houses are Dems, we just elected an (allegedly) progressive Dem Governor, and all twelve federal elected officials are Democrats. Get the point? Massachusetts is a one-party state, and this is Kerry's seat as long as he wants it.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Michigan - Carl Levin (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunner, but many strong potential candidates
Notes: Now Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Levin is a solid Democratic loyalist who has been a strong critic of the Iraq war. That is a plus in Michigan, a state that had been flirting with purple-dom until about a year ago, when the state's voters seemed to remember that Republican politicians hate the working class and that's why they always vote D. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Levin should be fine.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Montana - Max Baucus (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Denny Rehberg (maybe), other strong potential candidates
Notes: Baucus, known primarily as a centrist budget hawk, is an anomaly in Montana politics as a long-standing popular Democrat. Although the state has been trending towards the Dems in recent years with the elections of Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, it is still a tough political landscape for Baucus. He only beat Rehberg by 20,000 votes in 1996, and a rematch could be just as competitive in the right environment. However, I believe the issues that propelled Tester to victory (corruption, big government) will work to Baucus' advantage this time around and ensure his re-election.
Rating: 7 (Leans D)
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (seeking 5th term, 2nd in this seat)
Key Republicans: Tom Kean, Jr. (2006 Senate nominee)
Potential Democratic Challengers: Reps. Robert Andrews, Frank Pallone
Notes: Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other politician in Joisey. I really hope the GOP thinks they can take this one and wastes a bunch of $ in NJ's expensive media market, further jading already cynical voters with filthy attack ads while not doing anything to change their minds.
Rating: 8 (D Favored)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Former Cranston Mayor and 2006 Senate Candidate Stephen Laffey
Notes: Reed has one of the highest approval ratings of any Democratic Senator, as a leading voice on military issues and loyal Democrat. Preznit Bush has approval in the mid-20s. You do the math.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (likely seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Gov. Mike Rounds (undeclared)
Key Democrats (if Johnson doesn't run): Rep. Stephanie Herseth
Notes: Easily the strangest situation I've seen since I started following politics. Okay, maybe the '04 race in Illinois where the waters seemed to part for Obama was in the same ballpark. But Johnson's stroke throws a extra kink into an already complicated situation. Ironically, his health issues may work to his advantage, as Republicans have been forced to hold off the attack dogs for fear of looking callous and cruel. Hahaha. This should be their top target this year, since Johnson was already endangered before his stroke. If Gov. Rounds enters the race it will be at least a toss-up. Johnson seems to be preparing for an election race and has been raising money. However, if he is unable or otherwise chooses not to pursue re-election, Rep. Herseth would make a formidable challenger. Like I said, it's a strange situation with a ton of question marks.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - No matter what, this race will probably come down to election day turnout.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito; '06 Sen. nominee John Raese (neither has declared)
Notes: Capito may have a chance, but may not want to sacrifice her relatively safe House seat unless she really thinks she can win. If she decides otherwise, Rockefeller should win with 58-60% of the vote.
Rating: 9 (Probable D) - Unless something drastic changes in the national landscape, this seat stays D.
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So there you have it. Anybody who made it this far, please comment with thoughts/suggestions/rants.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Ridiculously Early Senate 2008 Roundup - R Seats
Just in case the presidential horse race weren't enough to deal with in an "off" year, I figure I'll provide an overview of the Senate landscape for the junkies out there.
Things are looking extremely positive for the Democrats, with 21 GOP Senators up for re-election and only 12 Dems. That would make for a promising outlook even in any year, but 2008 will be no ordinary year. The issues that plagued the Rs this past November will get no better, I really can't see how ANY of them possibly could, and the Iraq Debacle should continue to fester.
And here's some more food for thought. The six seats that flipped in '06 were in a much tougher year: 15 GOP seats and 18 Dem. If as in the past election cycle Dems take 40% of the Republican seats and hold all their own, they will be sitting pretty at that magical 60-seat supermajority. With a Democrat in the White House, the Repugs will be all but powerless.
Let's run down each race one by one, by state alphabetical order. Each race is ranked 1-10; 1 being definitely GOP, 10 being definitely Dem. These are completely my opinions, based on what I have read and seen. Here goes:
Republican Seats
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (seeking 3rd term)
Key opponent: Ron Sparks, State Agriculture Commissioner
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Sparks could make it interesting, but it's still Alabama
Alaska - Ted "aluminum tubes" Stevens (seeking 7th term)
Key opponent: none as of yet
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - In AK, competence or integrity seems not to be an issue
Colorado - OPEN (Wayne Allard is retiring)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall (Williams grad!) - son of the legendary Morris Udall and damn popular in his own right
Key Republican: former Rep. Scott McInnis
Rating: 7 (Leaning D) - I'm already ready to call this one for Udall
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (seeking 2nd term)
Key opponent: no clear favorite, but decent crop
Notes: Democrats are chomping at the bit over this one; Chambliss was the fellow who beat Max Cleland in 2002, using dirty campaign tactics that questioned the patriotism of a triple amputee war veteran.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Chambliss unfortunately is pretty popular, as Georgia is one of the few states still trending red.
Idaho - Larry Craig (may not seek a 4th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republicans: Rep. Mike Simpson; Fmr Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez
Notes: This race will be very hard to rate if Craig declines a run. Most are saying, however, that he will probably in fact run, so the current rating is under that assumption. LaRocco, a Veteran, will having to run in the style of Jim Webb to have a chance.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - LaRocco could be a decent challenger, but Craig is well-liked, and is the clear favorite if he chooses to run.
Kansas - Pat Roberts (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: none to my knowledge
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Forget this one. Roberts is a legend. Like Stevens, he's a horrible man but great politician.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (Senate Minority Leader, seeking 5th term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Notes: Dems would LOVE to exact revenge for Daschle in '04 and take down the other party's top dawg. McConnell is the king of an imploding KY GOP, so it could be interesting. However, most of the top D prospects are balking at this race, looking more at the Gov race this year or Bunning's much more vulnerable seat in '10. My guess is at least one of these prospects jumps in and makes it a race. Stay tuned.......
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - This one could get interesting, but will only flip in another wave election.
Maine - Susan Collins (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Allen
Notes: This is a first-tier race. Allen is a popular six-term House incumbent with solid statewide name recognition. Look for an insane amount of $$ per capita to get pumped into this state come fall '08.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Collins is my top pick to get Chaffee'd, a popular moderate GOP Senator in a state rapidly trending blue.
Minnesota - Norm Coleman (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Al Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Attorney Mike Ciresi, etc.
Notes: More than anybody else, I personally want to see Coleman's head on a skewer. So do many Minnesotans, after the circumstances of his previous victory. If it weren't for Paul Wellstone's tragic plane crash on the eve of the '02 election, he would be the overwhelming favorite to once again retain this seat. The sketchy circumstances of Wellstone's death and the Republican smear job in the aftermath of his memorial service are probably what has prompted Franken to run. Man, would it be fun to see him on the Senate floor.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - If Franken proves he can be taken seriously, this becomes a 7. If not, it's anybody's race.
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (seeking 6th term)
Key Democrats: State Atty General Michael Moore
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Assuming Cochran doesn't unexpectedly retire, forget about this one and move on.
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (possibly seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey
Notes: This situation is too nebulous to tell for sure. Hagel may or may not run for President, and at the same time may or may not run to keep this seat. Either way, it will probably stay in Republican hands.
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - I can't see a way this becomes a D pickup unless something drastically changes.
New Hampshire - John Sununu (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand; Katrina Swett
Notes: Sununu is undoubtedly a top Democratic target. Given the '06 tidal wave that gave Gov. John Lynch (D) 71% of the vote, flipped both Congressional seats to the Dems and saw unbelievable D gains in the state legislature, it will be hard for Sununu to win without further distancing himself from the national party.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Too early to get a sense of who will be giving Sununu the fight of his political life.
New Mexico - Pete Domenici (may or may not seek 7th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Tom Udall; Atty General Patricia Madrid; Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez
Key Republicans: Rep. Heather Wilson, Rep. Steve Pearce
Notes: This one is completely in flux. If Domenici runs as he has said he plans to do, he probably wins. But he is waist-deep in the US Attorney scandal and rumors have been circulating that his mental faculties are declining. If he retires, this could go either way.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - I'm splitting the difference between a definite Domenici win and a toss-up. Hopefully both he and Heather Wilson get dragged down in Attorneygate.
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: no standouts as of yet. Popular Gov. Mike Easley is not interested.
Notes: Dole is considered somewhat vulnerable, but it will take the right candidate and situation for her to be beaten. There are many possible challengers out there, but nobody stands out as a true superstar. For now, Dole has to be considered a clear favorite.
Rating: 3 (R Favored)- This is a sleeper race. Stay tuned.....
Oklahoma - James "Global warming and evolution are hoaxes" Inhofe (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats:???
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Inhofe is certifiably nuts, but it's Oklahoma. Not a state I'll be visiting anytime soon.
Oregon - Gordon Smith (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Earl Blumenauer; many others
Key Republicans: Antitax zealot Bill Sizemore
Notes: The antitax group Club for Growth has announced they are targeting Smith in this election. Keep in mind they backed Steven Laffey in RI against Chaffee, and almost knocked off Arlen Specter in '04. Smith is the favorite here, but in the end may not be able to withstand spirited attacks from both sides.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - If Blumenauer runs, this probably becomes to a 4.
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Key Republicans: none yet, but primary challenge possible
Notes: For some reason, Graham is considered a maverick and may draw a challenge from some moonbat Bible-thumper. I'm not too worried about him. My advice to Democrats: don't waste your energy here.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Nothing much to see here. Will probably become a 1 soon.
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: likely no top-tier challengers
Notes: While Alexander can probably be beaten, there's just nobody to do it this time around.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)
Texas - John Cornyn (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: many, but no top-tier challengers
Notes: God, I hate Cornyn's guts. To give you a sense, he was a leader in the Senate effort to push through radical conservative federal judges in '05. And he was on the Texas Supreme Court with Abu Gonzalez in the '90s. I hope somebody gives him a run for his money, but I just don't see it right now.
Rating: 2 (Probable R)
Virginia - John Warner (may or may not seek 6th term)
Key Democrat: Mark Warner (prob only runs if John doesn't)
Key Republican: Rep. Tom Davis
Notes: Like in NM, everything rides on whether John Warner runs again. Warner will be 80 on election day and may not have the stomach for what will be a bruising election battle. Mark Warner is the other real x-factor here, since he may opt to seek the Vice Presidential slot or run for Governor in '09. My guess is he only runs in an open seat where he is the clear favorite.
Rating: 4 (Leaning R) - This rating is a placeholder until the race becomes more defined.
Wyoming - Michael Enzi (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: '06 Congressional nominee Gary Trauner (may choose House rematch)
Notes: Trauner was a hair's breadth away from winning a statewide Congressional seat in this reddest of red states, and is the only Democrat at this point with any prayer of taking out Enzi. My guess is he goes for the rematch against Barbara Cubin, and wins this time.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)
Summary: 12 Safe Republican, 5 Possible Pickups, 3 Toss-Ups, 1 Likely Pickup
Estimated Pickups: 5
Things are looking extremely positive for the Democrats, with 21 GOP Senators up for re-election and only 12 Dems. That would make for a promising outlook even in any year, but 2008 will be no ordinary year. The issues that plagued the Rs this past November will get no better, I really can't see how ANY of them possibly could, and the Iraq Debacle should continue to fester.
And here's some more food for thought. The six seats that flipped in '06 were in a much tougher year: 15 GOP seats and 18 Dem. If as in the past election cycle Dems take 40% of the Republican seats and hold all their own, they will be sitting pretty at that magical 60-seat supermajority. With a Democrat in the White House, the Repugs will be all but powerless.
Let's run down each race one by one, by state alphabetical order. Each race is ranked 1-10; 1 being definitely GOP, 10 being definitely Dem. These are completely my opinions, based on what I have read and seen. Here goes:
Republican Seats
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (seeking 3rd term)
Key opponent: Ron Sparks, State Agriculture Commissioner
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Sparks could make it interesting, but it's still Alabama
Alaska - Ted "aluminum tubes" Stevens (seeking 7th term)
Key opponent: none as of yet
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - In AK, competence or integrity seems not to be an issue
Colorado - OPEN (Wayne Allard is retiring)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall (Williams grad!) - son of the legendary Morris Udall and damn popular in his own right
Key Republican: former Rep. Scott McInnis
Rating: 7 (Leaning D) - I'm already ready to call this one for Udall
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (seeking 2nd term)
Key opponent: no clear favorite, but decent crop
Notes: Democrats are chomping at the bit over this one; Chambliss was the fellow who beat Max Cleland in 2002, using dirty campaign tactics that questioned the patriotism of a triple amputee war veteran.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Chambliss unfortunately is pretty popular, as Georgia is one of the few states still trending red.
Idaho - Larry Craig (may not seek a 4th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republicans: Rep. Mike Simpson; Fmr Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez
Notes: This race will be very hard to rate if Craig declines a run. Most are saying, however, that he will probably in fact run, so the current rating is under that assumption. LaRocco, a Veteran, will having to run in the style of Jim Webb to have a chance.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - LaRocco could be a decent challenger, but Craig is well-liked, and is the clear favorite if he chooses to run.
Kansas - Pat Roberts (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: none to my knowledge
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Forget this one. Roberts is a legend. Like Stevens, he's a horrible man but great politician.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (Senate Minority Leader, seeking 5th term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Notes: Dems would LOVE to exact revenge for Daschle in '04 and take down the other party's top dawg. McConnell is the king of an imploding KY GOP, so it could be interesting. However, most of the top D prospects are balking at this race, looking more at the Gov race this year or Bunning's much more vulnerable seat in '10. My guess is at least one of these prospects jumps in and makes it a race. Stay tuned.......
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - This one could get interesting, but will only flip in another wave election.
Maine - Susan Collins (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Allen
Notes: This is a first-tier race. Allen is a popular six-term House incumbent with solid statewide name recognition. Look for an insane amount of $$ per capita to get pumped into this state come fall '08.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Collins is my top pick to get Chaffee'd, a popular moderate GOP Senator in a state rapidly trending blue.
Minnesota - Norm Coleman (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Al Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Attorney Mike Ciresi, etc.
Notes: More than anybody else, I personally want to see Coleman's head on a skewer. So do many Minnesotans, after the circumstances of his previous victory. If it weren't for Paul Wellstone's tragic plane crash on the eve of the '02 election, he would be the overwhelming favorite to once again retain this seat. The sketchy circumstances of Wellstone's death and the Republican smear job in the aftermath of his memorial service are probably what has prompted Franken to run. Man, would it be fun to see him on the Senate floor.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - If Franken proves he can be taken seriously, this becomes a 7. If not, it's anybody's race.
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (seeking 6th term)
Key Democrats: State Atty General Michael Moore
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Assuming Cochran doesn't unexpectedly retire, forget about this one and move on.
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (possibly seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey
Notes: This situation is too nebulous to tell for sure. Hagel may or may not run for President, and at the same time may or may not run to keep this seat. Either way, it will probably stay in Republican hands.
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - I can't see a way this becomes a D pickup unless something drastically changes.
New Hampshire - John Sununu (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand; Katrina Swett
Notes: Sununu is undoubtedly a top Democratic target. Given the '06 tidal wave that gave Gov. John Lynch (D) 71% of the vote, flipped both Congressional seats to the Dems and saw unbelievable D gains in the state legislature, it will be hard for Sununu to win without further distancing himself from the national party.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Too early to get a sense of who will be giving Sununu the fight of his political life.
New Mexico - Pete Domenici (may or may not seek 7th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Tom Udall; Atty General Patricia Madrid; Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez
Key Republicans: Rep. Heather Wilson, Rep. Steve Pearce
Notes: This one is completely in flux. If Domenici runs as he has said he plans to do, he probably wins. But he is waist-deep in the US Attorney scandal and rumors have been circulating that his mental faculties are declining. If he retires, this could go either way.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - I'm splitting the difference between a definite Domenici win and a toss-up. Hopefully both he and Heather Wilson get dragged down in Attorneygate.
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: no standouts as of yet. Popular Gov. Mike Easley is not interested.
Notes: Dole is considered somewhat vulnerable, but it will take the right candidate and situation for her to be beaten. There are many possible challengers out there, but nobody stands out as a true superstar. For now, Dole has to be considered a clear favorite.
Rating: 3 (R Favored)- This is a sleeper race. Stay tuned.....
Oklahoma - James "Global warming and evolution are hoaxes" Inhofe (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats:???
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Inhofe is certifiably nuts, but it's Oklahoma. Not a state I'll be visiting anytime soon.
Oregon - Gordon Smith (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Earl Blumenauer; many others
Key Republicans: Antitax zealot Bill Sizemore
Notes: The antitax group Club for Growth has announced they are targeting Smith in this election. Keep in mind they backed Steven Laffey in RI against Chaffee, and almost knocked off Arlen Specter in '04. Smith is the favorite here, but in the end may not be able to withstand spirited attacks from both sides.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - If Blumenauer runs, this probably becomes to a 4.
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Key Republicans: none yet, but primary challenge possible
Notes: For some reason, Graham is considered a maverick and may draw a challenge from some moonbat Bible-thumper. I'm not too worried about him. My advice to Democrats: don't waste your energy here.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Nothing much to see here. Will probably become a 1 soon.
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: likely no top-tier challengers
Notes: While Alexander can probably be beaten, there's just nobody to do it this time around.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)
Texas - John Cornyn (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: many, but no top-tier challengers
Notes: God, I hate Cornyn's guts. To give you a sense, he was a leader in the Senate effort to push through radical conservative federal judges in '05. And he was on the Texas Supreme Court with Abu Gonzalez in the '90s. I hope somebody gives him a run for his money, but I just don't see it right now.
Rating: 2 (Probable R)
Virginia - John Warner (may or may not seek 6th term)
Key Democrat: Mark Warner (prob only runs if John doesn't)
Key Republican: Rep. Tom Davis
Notes: Like in NM, everything rides on whether John Warner runs again. Warner will be 80 on election day and may not have the stomach for what will be a bruising election battle. Mark Warner is the other real x-factor here, since he may opt to seek the Vice Presidential slot or run for Governor in '09. My guess is he only runs in an open seat where he is the clear favorite.
Rating: 4 (Leaning R) - This rating is a placeholder until the race becomes more defined.
Wyoming - Michael Enzi (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: '06 Congressional nominee Gary Trauner (may choose House rematch)
Notes: Trauner was a hair's breadth away from winning a statewide Congressional seat in this reddest of red states, and is the only Democrat at this point with any prayer of taking out Enzi. My guess is he goes for the rematch against Barbara Cubin, and wins this time.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)
Summary: 12 Safe Republican, 5 Possible Pickups, 3 Toss-Ups, 1 Likely Pickup
Estimated Pickups: 5
Friday, March 30, 2007
Welcome
Hi all! I thought it might be fun to try out the blogging world, and see if I can put some of my news reading time to good use. Ideally, I am hoping this forum can be used for three things:
1) Be a news source for those who don't have hours to search the papers or the cyberpapers for those juicy nuggets, and distill the real stories and narratives from all the fluff out there in the corporate media. The corporate "mainstream" media falls short in many ways, the most egregious being its inability/unwillingness to check the factual accuracy of statements and claims by those in power, and its utter failure to establish context within a historical and cultural framework. I will attempt to compensate for these shortcomings with analysis of important news I come across. Anyone else is free to contribute to this effort if they so choose.
2) Act as an informal policy incubator, where open and honest discussion leads to concrete policy solutions. We are stuck in an age of partisan squabble, and much of this partisanship re-enacts the battles of generations past. It is time to move on. The American people, and especially Northeastern liberals like most of the expected readers of this blog, are ready for fresh ideas. Some of us are ready to create and discuss fresh ideas, some have one or two particular issues in which they feel able to contribute to this effort, and others would like to work toward getting them enacted (undoubtedly the most important variable in the equation).
That leads us to the final purpose of this blog: action alerts. I assume anyone who is reading this is either furious at the state of our nation's political landscape or just wants to learn and help however they can. Maybe both. Well I hope to provide ways for folks like yourselves to take action in a productive manner. The time for complaining and discussion is over. We need to act, and we can. We can call and write our representatives, talk to our friends and family, volunteer in local elections and community actions, and most importantly, vote. They say democracy is not a spectator sport, but there are too many mere spectators when the stakes are higher than anytime I am aware of. If I can activate even one member of the populace to stand up for his or her values in full force, this blog will have been worth it.
1) Be a news source for those who don't have hours to search the papers or the cyberpapers for those juicy nuggets, and distill the real stories and narratives from all the fluff out there in the corporate media. The corporate "mainstream" media falls short in many ways, the most egregious being its inability/unwillingness to check the factual accuracy of statements and claims by those in power, and its utter failure to establish context within a historical and cultural framework. I will attempt to compensate for these shortcomings with analysis of important news I come across. Anyone else is free to contribute to this effort if they so choose.
2) Act as an informal policy incubator, where open and honest discussion leads to concrete policy solutions. We are stuck in an age of partisan squabble, and much of this partisanship re-enacts the battles of generations past. It is time to move on. The American people, and especially Northeastern liberals like most of the expected readers of this blog, are ready for fresh ideas. Some of us are ready to create and discuss fresh ideas, some have one or two particular issues in which they feel able to contribute to this effort, and others would like to work toward getting them enacted (undoubtedly the most important variable in the equation).
That leads us to the final purpose of this blog: action alerts. I assume anyone who is reading this is either furious at the state of our nation's political landscape or just wants to learn and help however they can. Maybe both. Well I hope to provide ways for folks like yourselves to take action in a productive manner. The time for complaining and discussion is over. We need to act, and we can. We can call and write our representatives, talk to our friends and family, volunteer in local elections and community actions, and most importantly, vote. They say democracy is not a spectator sport, but there are too many mere spectators when the stakes are higher than anytime I am aware of. If I can activate even one member of the populace to stand up for his or her values in full force, this blog will have been worth it.
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