This is part 2 of my Senate roundup, which looks at the 12 Democratic seats up for re-election and analyzes each individual race. The Republican outlook predicts 5 Dem pickups, and (at the risk of spoiling the rest of this post) 1 GOP pickup, bringing the total for the 111th Congress to 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. If Lieberman switches sides, then he can go Cheney himself and enjoy irrelevance in the minority party.
And just in case you were wondering, all the analysis and ratings are my own.
Once again, the ratings go from 1-10, in this case 1 is a definite R pickup and 10 is a definite D hold. The list is in alphabetical order by state.
Here goes:
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (seeking 2nd term)
Key Republicans: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (maybe), Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Holt, etc.
Notes: Much of this race depends on what Huckabee decides. At the moment, he seems to be pursuing a run for President and getting absolutely nowhere. It's still highly possible that Huckabee goes for this Senate seat, at which point it becomes a top-tier race. Otherwise, Pryor is a solid favorite.
Rating: 8 (D Favored) - would become a 6 if Huckabee switches gears.
Delaware - Joe Biden (seeking 7th term)
Key Republican: Rep. Mike Castle
Notes: Biden still seems to think he's running for President. It shouldn't have any bearing on his Senate seat though, since the filing deadline in Delaware is well after the primary process is finished. He'll win again if he runs as expected. If he doesn't or becomes Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, his son Beau Biden will take on Castle in an interesting matchup.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Illinois - Majority Whip Dick Durbin (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunners, many possible
Notes: Durbin became an key player in Congress with the Dem takeover of the Senate. In addition to his Beltway status, he is pretty popular back home. Since the Illinois GOP seems to be slowly crumbling away, I can't see him going anywhere.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Iowa - Tom Harkin (probably seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham, Businessman Steve Rathje
Notes: Harkin hasn't officially decided whether he'll run again, but he'd be crazy not to. He should win if he does, he's beaten sitting Republican Congressmen four straight elections and is great on agricultural subsidies, probably the most important issue in Iowa. Even if he's on the fence, Schumer will convince him to jump back in. I also want to mention he was a key establishment endorser of Howard Dean's campaign in '04.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: many
Notes: This is the first top-tier target for Republicans, and their most likely shot at defeating a healthy incumbent. Landrieu won her 2002 re-election with just 52%, and that was before Katrina and the exodus from heavily Democratic New Orleans. Yet Landrieu has handled her situation with savvy and finesse, rebounding nicely in the polls due to her visibility in seeking federal aid for victims and rebuilding efforts. Her most formidable potential challenger, Rep. Bobby Jindal, is looking like he will be elected Governor this November, and the Republicans lack other top-tier candidates. However, this will still be a tough race given the political climate in a state trending red.
Rating: 7 (Leans D) - The one seat in which the DSCC will need to devote massive resources to playing defense (with the possible exception of NJ).
Massachusetts - John Kerry (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Swift Boat Veterans Founder Jerome Corsi (because there's really nobody else)
Notes: Zzzzzzz. Many of us Bay Staters don't really love Kerry that much, especially after his pathetic performance in '04. But luckily for him, he's in Massachusetts. 85% of both legislative houses are Dems, we just elected an (allegedly) progressive Dem Governor, and all twelve federal elected officials are Democrats. Get the point? Massachusetts is a one-party state, and this is Kerry's seat as long as he wants it.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
Michigan - Carl Levin (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: no frontrunner, but many strong potential candidates
Notes: Now Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Levin is a solid Democratic loyalist who has been a strong critic of the Iraq war. That is a plus in Michigan, a state that had been flirting with purple-dom until about a year ago, when the state's voters seemed to remember that Republican politicians hate the working class and that's why they always vote D. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Levin should be fine.
Rating: 9 (Probable D)
Montana - Max Baucus (seeking 6th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Denny Rehberg (maybe), other strong potential candidates
Notes: Baucus, known primarily as a centrist budget hawk, is an anomaly in Montana politics as a long-standing popular Democrat. Although the state has been trending towards the Dems in recent years with the elections of Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, it is still a tough political landscape for Baucus. He only beat Rehberg by 20,000 votes in 1996, and a rematch could be just as competitive in the right environment. However, I believe the issues that propelled Tester to victory (corruption, big government) will work to Baucus' advantage this time around and ensure his re-election.
Rating: 7 (Leans D)
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (seeking 5th term, 2nd in this seat)
Key Republicans: Tom Kean, Jr. (2006 Senate nominee)
Potential Democratic Challengers: Reps. Robert Andrews, Frank Pallone
Notes: Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other politician in Joisey. I really hope the GOP thinks they can take this one and wastes a bunch of $ in NJ's expensive media market, further jading already cynical voters with filthy attack ads while not doing anything to change their minds.
Rating: 8 (D Favored)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Former Cranston Mayor and 2006 Senate Candidate Stephen Laffey
Notes: Reed has one of the highest approval ratings of any Democratic Senator, as a leading voice on military issues and loyal Democrat. Preznit Bush has approval in the mid-20s. You do the math.
Rating: 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (likely seeking 3rd term)
Key Republicans: Gov. Mike Rounds (undeclared)
Key Democrats (if Johnson doesn't run): Rep. Stephanie Herseth
Notes: Easily the strangest situation I've seen since I started following politics. Okay, maybe the '04 race in Illinois where the waters seemed to part for Obama was in the same ballpark. But Johnson's stroke throws a extra kink into an already complicated situation. Ironically, his health issues may work to his advantage, as Republicans have been forced to hold off the attack dogs for fear of looking callous and cruel. Hahaha. This should be their top target this year, since Johnson was already endangered before his stroke. If Gov. Rounds enters the race it will be at least a toss-up. Johnson seems to be preparing for an election race and has been raising money. However, if he is unable or otherwise chooses not to pursue re-election, Rep. Herseth would make a formidable challenger. Like I said, it's a strange situation with a ton of question marks.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - No matter what, this race will probably come down to election day turnout.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (seeking 5th term)
Key Republicans: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito; '06 Sen. nominee John Raese (neither has declared)
Notes: Capito may have a chance, but may not want to sacrifice her relatively safe House seat unless she really thinks she can win. If she decides otherwise, Rockefeller should win with 58-60% of the vote.
Rating: 9 (Probable D) - Unless something drastic changes in the national landscape, this seat stays D.
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So there you have it. Anybody who made it this far, please comment with thoughts/suggestions/rants.
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