Updated Senate Rankings - October

Senate Rankings, 10/5/07

Dem Seats (12):
Arkansas (Pryor): 9 (Probable D) - Purplish red state, no strong Republican challenger has emerged. Pryor might also benefit if Clinton wins the nomination.
Delaware (Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Illinois (Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Iowa (Harkin): 9 (Probable D) - GOP would love to challenge Harkin but don't seem to have good candidates and the incumbent is pretty popular.
Louisiana (Landrieu): 6 (Barely D) - Treasurer John Kennedy recently switched parties and is looking like the top challenger at the moment.
Massachusetts (Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Michigan (Levin): 9 (Probable D) - If they couldn't make it close against Debbie Stabenow last year, they certainly won't beat the powerful Sen. Levin.
Montana (Baucus): 8 (D Favored) - Surprisingly, it looks like the GOP won't put up a strong fight for this seat. Baucus has done a great job of scaring away potential challengers.
New Jersey (Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D) - Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other NJ politician. Rove badly miscalculated by gunning for Menendez last year.
Rhode Island (Reed): 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota (Johnson): 7 (Leans D) - Johnson is healthy and likely running again; his brain hemorrhage has actually served as a political boon in defusing GOP attacks. No elite challenger has emerged and chances are none will unless he retires.
West Virginia (Rockefeller): 9 (Probable D)

Dem Seat Totals (12):
Definite D - 4
Probable D - 5
D Favored - 1
Leans D - 1
Barely D - 1
Estimated GOP Pickups: 0-1

Republican Seats (22):
Alabama (Sessions): 1 (Definite R) - Dems lost hope of getting this seat when Ron Sparks declined a challenge.
Alaska (Stevens): 3 (R Favored) - An institution in Alaska and probably the most corrupt Senator, Stevens continues to be embroiled in scandal and it remains to be seen whether he can survive politically. Dems' top hope is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is still deciding whether to jump in. The dynamics of this race could change significantly over the next few months.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - This is a battle of two Congressmen, Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R). Udall is quite moderate in this purple state while Schaffer is, well, not. Schaffer also is involved in a developing scandal involving kickbacks while on the state Board of Ed. Either way, this is Udall's race to lose.
Georgia (Chambliss): 1 (Definite R) - Democrats hate Chambliss for comparing wounded war vet Max Cleland to Osama in his 2002 race, but it's Georgia. 'Nuff said.
Idaho (Craig?): 3 (R Favored) - This one gets more and more fun to watch. With Craig now finishing his term, it looks like a really bloody GOP primary is in the cards (think 10 candidates who all believe they rightfully deserve the seat). And with this in mind, Craig may decide that he can win a primary in a divided field and things would get really interesting. Meanwhile, Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco is crisscrossing the state, building name recognition and championing a strong populist message. Stay tuned.
Kansas (Roberts): 2 (Probable R) - It remains to be seen whether Dems can field a challenger capable of knocking off Roberts, but if ever possible it will be this year. Roberts has never been more unpopular among Kansans. Rumors have former Rep. Jim Slattery jumping in.
Kentucky (McConnell): 3 (R Favored) - Democrats see McConnell as potential payback for then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle's defeat in '04. They have a solid candidate in Atty General Greg Stumbo. Can they keep up with McConnell in the money game? That will likely decide whether this race is serious or not.
Maine (Collins): 5 (Barely R) - I see this as a major bellwhether race of the Senate '08 elections, along with Oregon. Rep. Tom Allen is a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough, close, nasty race. Senator Collins has this moderate grandmother image but if the Dems can make this a referendum on Iraq, Allen wins. And Collins' recent dirty attacks on Allen may make it possible for Allen to debunk her reputation as a consensus-builder.
Minnesota (Coleman): 6 (Barely D) - Al Franken gets a slight edge here for outraising Coleman two quarters in a row, even with Bu$h coming to town in August. It is actually a great sign that Franken's name has been off the radar recently; this means he's playing the grassroots game and building local relationships Wellstone-style. Franken has a legitimate primary challenger in attorney Mike Ciresi, but Franken's name recognition and reputation as a fighter should win him the nomination. In any case, this will be a nasty race.
Mississippi (Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Nebraska (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - This will probably be a close race, with two top Republican candidates and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey likely to run. However, too many x-factors here to get a definitive read.
New Hampshire (Sununu): 7 (Leans D) - Oddly, the incumbent Sununu is a clear underdog now that popular former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen is running. This is her race to lose.
New Mexico (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - The pieces are still falling into place following Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement. Republican Rep. Heather Wilson is in, and her GOP colleague Rep. Steve Pearce might run as well. Wilson is moderate but plagued by the same US Attorney scandal that brought down Sen. Domenici, and Pearce may be too conservative to win a statewide race. While top Dems Gov. Richardson and Rep. Udall have declined a Senate run, Lt. Gov Diane Denish and Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez are considering bids and both would make solid candidates. Stay tuned.
North Carolina (Dole): 3 (R Favored) - Dole is very vulnerable, but still no serious Democratic challenger has emerged. This will have to move down to a 2 if none steps forward soon.
Oklahoma (Inhofe): 2 (Probable R) - It's Oklahoma, but Inhofe is crazy enough to be susceptible to a challenge from a fighting reality-based Democrat. State Sen. Andrew Rice is only 34, but could make things interesting given the right circumstances.
Oregon (Smith): 4 (Leans R) - Along with Maine, this is a top bellwether race of '08. The Dems got their top challenger in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith will be very well funded and will definitely fight for his seat, but the R next to his name might be too much to overcome. We shall see. If Merkley wins, expect Dems to get close to a 60-seat supermajority.
South Carolina (Graham): 1 (Definite R) - Lindsey Graham's only real challenge may come from the right. A bruising primary is likely.
Tennessee (Alexander): 3 (R Favored) - It looks like businessman and Gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is going to run, and he has the finances and name recognition to give Alexander a run for his money. Stay tuned.
Texas (Cornyn): 3 (R Favored) - Most sane people hate Cornyn, a bully-like hyperpartisan and Bush crony. State Rep. Rick Noriega is running a smart grassroots campaign, and seems to be holding his own in fundraising. He faces a primary challenge from attorney Mikal Watts, but Noriega is the guy who can take down Cornyn.
Virginia (OPEN): 8 (D Favored) - This seat should remain in the hands of a guy named Warner, but it will be a different Warner. With John out and Mark in, the highly popular former Governor is the clear favorite no matter who emerges from a nasty GOP primary.
Wyoming (Enzi): 1 (Definite R) - Probably will be the only unopposed Republican.
Wyoming (Barasso): 1 (Definite R) - John Barasso, the appointee to this seat following the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, might face token opposition from the Democrats, but the only seemingly decent challenger on the D side, Gary Trauner, is running for the House.

GOP Seat Totals (22):
Definite R: 6
Probable R: 2
R Favored: 6
Leans R: 1
Toss-Ups (Barely R or D): 4
Leans D: 2
D Favored: 1
Estimated Dem Pickups: 5-9

111th Congress Estimated Party Breakdown: 58 D*, 42 R
*D's include Independent Sens. Sanders and Lieberman