Ridiculously Early Senate 2008 Roundup - R Seats

Just in case the presidential horse race weren't enough to deal with in an "off" year, I figure I'll provide an overview of the Senate landscape for the junkies out there.

Things are looking extremely positive for the Democrats, with 21 GOP Senators up for re-election and only 12 Dems. That would make for a promising outlook even in any year, but 2008 will be no ordinary year. The issues that plagued the Rs this past November will get no better, I really can't see how ANY of them possibly could, and the Iraq Debacle should continue to fester.

And here's some more food for thought. The six seats that flipped in '06 were in a much tougher year: 15 GOP seats and 18 Dem. If as in the past election cycle Dems take 40% of the Republican seats and hold all their own, they will be sitting pretty at that magical 60-seat supermajority. With a Democrat in the White House, the Repugs will be all but powerless.

Let's run down each race one by one, by state alphabetical order. Each race is ranked 1-10; 1 being definitely GOP, 10 being definitely Dem. These are completely my opinions, based on what I have read and seen. Here goes:

Republican Seats

Alabama - Jeff Sessions (seeking 3rd term)
Key opponent: Ron Sparks, State Agriculture Commissioner
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Sparks could make it interesting, but it's still Alabama

Alaska - Ted "aluminum tubes" Stevens (seeking 7th term)
Key opponent: none as of yet
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - In AK, competence or integrity seems not to be an issue

Colorado - OPEN (Wayne Allard is retiring)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall (Williams grad!) - son of the legendary Morris Udall and damn popular in his own right
Key Republican: former Rep. Scott McInnis
Rating: 7 (Leaning D) - I'm already ready to call this one for Udall

Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (seeking 2nd term)
Key opponent: no clear favorite, but decent crop
Notes: Democrats are chomping at the bit over this one; Chambliss was the fellow who beat Max Cleland in 2002, using dirty campaign tactics that questioned the patriotism of a triple amputee war veteran.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Chambliss unfortunately is pretty popular, as Georgia is one of the few states still trending red.

Idaho - Larry Craig (may not seek a 4th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republicans: Rep. Mike Simpson; Fmr Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez
Notes: This race will be very hard to rate if Craig declines a run. Most are saying, however, that he will probably in fact run, so the current rating is under that assumption. LaRocco, a Veteran, will having to run in the style of Jim Webb to have a chance.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - LaRocco could be a decent challenger, but Craig is well-liked, and is the clear favorite if he chooses to run.

Kansas - Pat Roberts (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: none to my knowledge
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Forget this one. Roberts is a legend. Like Stevens, he's a horrible man but great politician.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (Senate Minority Leader, seeking 5th term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Notes: Dems would LOVE to exact revenge for Daschle in '04 and take down the other party's top dawg. McConnell is the king of an imploding KY GOP, so it could be interesting. However, most of the top D prospects are balking at this race, looking more at the Gov race this year or Bunning's much more vulnerable seat in '10. My guess is at least one of these prospects jumps in and makes it a race. Stay tuned.......
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - This one could get interesting, but will only flip in another wave election.

Maine - Susan Collins (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Allen
Notes: This is a first-tier race. Allen is a popular six-term House incumbent with solid statewide name recognition. Look for an insane amount of $$ per capita to get pumped into this state come fall '08.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Collins is my top pick to get Chaffee'd, a popular moderate GOP Senator in a state rapidly trending blue.

Minnesota - Norm Coleman (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Al Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Attorney Mike Ciresi, etc.
Notes: More than anybody else, I personally want to see Coleman's head on a skewer. So do many Minnesotans, after the circumstances of his previous victory. If it weren't for Paul Wellstone's tragic plane crash on the eve of the '02 election, he would be the overwhelming favorite to once again retain this seat. The sketchy circumstances of Wellstone's death and the Republican smear job in the aftermath of his memorial service are probably what has prompted Franken to run. Man, would it be fun to see him on the Senate floor.
Rating: 5 (Toss-Up) - If Franken proves he can be taken seriously, this becomes a 7. If not, it's anybody's race.

Mississippi - Thad Cochran (seeking 6th term)
Key Democrats: State Atty General Michael Moore
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Assuming Cochran doesn't unexpectedly retire, forget about this one and move on.

Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (possibly seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey
Notes: This situation is too nebulous to tell for sure. Hagel may or may not run for President, and at the same time may or may not run to keep this seat. Either way, it will probably stay in Republican hands.
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - I can't see a way this becomes a D pickup unless something drastically changes.

New Hampshire - John Sununu (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand; Katrina Swett
Notes: Sununu is undoubtedly a top Democratic target. Given the '06 tidal wave that gave Gov. John Lynch (D) 71% of the vote, flipped both Congressional seats to the Dems and saw unbelievable D gains in the state legislature, it will be hard for Sununu to win without further distancing himself from the national party.
Rating: 6 (Toss-Up) - Too early to get a sense of who will be giving Sununu the fight of his political life.

New Mexico - Pete Domenici (may or may not seek 7th term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Tom Udall; Atty General Patricia Madrid; Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez
Key Republicans: Rep. Heather Wilson, Rep. Steve Pearce
Notes: This one is completely in flux. If Domenici runs as he has said he plans to do, he probably wins. But he is waist-deep in the US Attorney scandal and rumors have been circulating that his mental faculties are declining. If he retires, this could go either way.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - I'm splitting the difference between a definite Domenici win and a toss-up. Hopefully both he and Heather Wilson get dragged down in Attorneygate.

North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: no standouts as of yet. Popular Gov. Mike Easley is not interested.
Notes: Dole is considered somewhat vulnerable, but it will take the right candidate and situation for her to be beaten. There are many possible challengers out there, but nobody stands out as a true superstar. For now, Dole has to be considered a clear favorite.
Rating: 3 (R Favored)- This is a sleeper race. Stay tuned.....

Oklahoma - James "Global warming and evolution are hoaxes" Inhofe (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats:???
Rating: 1 (Definite R) - Inhofe is certifiably nuts, but it's Oklahoma. Not a state I'll be visiting anytime soon.

Oregon - Gordon Smith (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrats: Rep. Earl Blumenauer; many others
Key Republicans: Antitax zealot Bill Sizemore
Notes: The antitax group Club for Growth has announced they are targeting Smith in this election. Keep in mind they backed Steven Laffey in RI against Chaffee, and almost knocked off Arlen Specter in '04. Smith is the favorite here, but in the end may not be able to withstand spirited attacks from both sides.
Rating: 3 (R Favored) - If Blumenauer runs, this probably becomes to a 4.

South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: ?????
Key Republicans: none yet, but primary challenge possible
Notes: For some reason, Graham is considered a maverick and may draw a challenge from some moonbat Bible-thumper. I'm not too worried about him. My advice to Democrats: don't waste your energy here.
Rating: 2 (Probable R) - Nothing much to see here. Will probably become a 1 soon.

Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: likely no top-tier challengers
Notes: While Alexander can probably be beaten, there's just nobody to do it this time around.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)

Texas - John Cornyn (seeking 2nd term)
Key Democrats: many, but no top-tier challengers
Notes: God, I hate Cornyn's guts. To give you a sense, he was a leader in the Senate effort to push through radical conservative federal judges in '05. And he was on the Texas Supreme Court with Abu Gonzalez in the '90s. I hope somebody gives him a run for his money, but I just don't see it right now.
Rating: 2 (Probable R)

Virginia - John Warner (may or may not seek 6th term)
Key Democrat: Mark Warner (prob only runs if John doesn't)
Key Republican: Rep. Tom Davis
Notes: Like in NM, everything rides on whether John Warner runs again. Warner will be 80 on election day and may not have the stomach for what will be a bruising election battle. Mark Warner is the other real x-factor here, since he may opt to seek the Vice Presidential slot or run for Governor in '09. My guess is he only runs in an open seat where he is the clear favorite.
Rating: 4 (Leaning R) - This rating is a placeholder until the race becomes more defined.

Wyoming - Michael Enzi (seeking 3rd term)
Key Democrat: '06 Congressional nominee Gary Trauner (may choose House rematch)
Notes: Trauner was a hair's breadth away from winning a statewide Congressional seat in this reddest of red states, and is the only Democrat at this point with any prayer of taking out Enzi. My guess is he goes for the rematch against Barbara Cubin, and wins this time.
Rating: 1 (Definite R)

Summary: 12 Safe Republican, 5 Possible Pickups, 3 Toss-Ups, 1 Likely Pickup

Estimated Pickups: 5