June Senate Roundup

Honestly, I'm getting pretty worn out by the marathon presidential race and especially the unbearably long nomination process that's thankfully reached its conclusion. And based on what I'm hearing from those around me, you probably are too. So as a brief respite from the BIG race, here are my June Senate rankings and race updates. With almost all of the meaningful primaries also wrapping up yesterday on the Senate front, this is a good time for a full rundown.

The wonderful news for Democrats continues unabated, as quite a few races have been upgraded since the last update in March with a mere one looking better for the GOP. Getting to sixty seats is now looking distinctly within the realm of possibility, although Dems would have to knock off some tough incumbents to get there. As a baseline, we would be looking at something around 55-58 (including Lieberman) if the elections were today; that would mean a pickup of 4-7 seats.

To the rankings! As always, 1 means Definite R while 10 means Definite D
Races are ordered by chance of flipping. If "upgrade" is listed, the race got better for the Democrats.

Oh, this time Republican seats go first, because the D-held seats are almost all foregone conclusions at this point.

See the bottom of the post for a summary and the methodology behind my number rankings.

Republican-Held Seats (23)

Virginia (OPEN): 9 (Probable D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
To put it simply, Virginians know Warner as the guy who cleaned up the mess that Gilmore made. Gilmore barely got the nomination Tuesday over a nobody state delegate. There's a good chance Warner will end up giving a hefty chunk of his campaign cash to the DSCC to fund other, closer contests.

New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Nominee: Rep. Steve Pearce
The conservative Pearce edged out faux-moderate Heather Wilson (of nipplegate fame) for the nomination. It matters little. A slew of polls have had Udall beating both by very comfortable margins. It may tighten a little, but right now it's hard to imagine Pearce winning.

Colorado (OPEN): 8 (Leans D) - 2 point upgrade
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Mark Udall (Tom's brother)
Republican Nominee: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
This contest was shaping up to be a hard-fought nailbiter. That was before the torrent of corruption revelations began to hit Schaffer. The worst one: while in congress he went on a Jack Abramoff-sponsored trip to the Mariana Islands to "investigate" sweatshop conditions, and of course reported everything to be hunky-dory. Then, in Congress he once tried to say the U.S. should emulate its workplace regulations after those of the Marianas, known as one of the most cruel places for workers in the Western Hemisphere. In other words he's a transparent Grade A Dirtbag. To make matters worse, his campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, handled Macaca Allen's implosion in 2006, so you know he can't handle PR crises particularly well. All I'm saying is, get out the popcorn, this should be entertaining to watch.

New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Sununu is a Bush toady representing a state that doesn't take well to toadies, and especially not the Iraq-enabling kind. Shaheen remains pretty popular and despite a few years out of the state, still has very deep roots in the NH political community. Polls have her consistently ahead by around 10 points and that probably will not change much as both have very high name ID. If McCain can sell his case on Iraq and wins the state, Sununu has a shot. Otherwise, stick a fork in him.

Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Boy, Alaska Republicans are a mess of corruption right now. Stevens, as the king of Alaska politics, heads the list of course with his notorious Bridge to Nowhere and much much more. Despite the good will Stevens has generated over the years, he is starting to be seen as a black eye for the state by its residents (those who pay attention, anyway). Begich, the son of beloved former congressman Nick Begich, is also well-regarded and already governs a large chunk of Alaska's population so is widely known. This matchup should be really fascinating and I expect it to resemble many of the '06 congressional campaigns. Gonna be a close one.

Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R) - downgrade
Challenger: Al Franken
Yikes! After I gushed about Franken in the last roundup, a major story came to light about how he owed back taxes in 17 states. The story may have been blown a little out of proportion, but it seems like it stuck as a scandal and may have opened a door for Coleman to build a narrative of Franken as dishonest and flippant. Even though the story broke a month ago or more, it is still too early to tell whether Franken can weather the storm. All we know is, there will be more storms to come; Coleman is very sleazy (yeah, even among senators) and will throw the kitchen sink at his opponent. This race may be the ugliest and nastiest one of the whole cycle, and yes that includes the presidential contest. Now that we see some chinks in Franken's armor, all bets are off.

Oregon (Gordon Smith): 5 (Barely R) - upgrade
Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
The more I see of Merkley, the more I like him. This guy is just a natural leader. He got past the first step a couple weeks ago by fighting off a spirited primary challenge from activist Steve Novick, who would've made a solid albeit different candidate himself. Merkley isn't the most fiery guy out there, but he's a true progressive with a track record of getting things done. I'm guessing the election will end up as a referendum on whether Smith is actually the principled moderate that he tries to come across as. At the moment, I'm cautiously optimistic, but at the moment the incumbent has to remain a slight favorite. Oh, recent polls have the contest locked in a statistical tie.

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
We already knew Liddy Dole was a top DSCC target, and recent post-primary polls have vindicated their interest in the race. Multiple polls have shown a very close battle, with some actually putting Hagan on top. This is before she really starts the general election battle. Dole has a sizable campaign stash, so she has to be given a slight edge at the moment. But that could change as the summer unfolds. Dole has shown signs that she is running scared. I should mention, however, that Kay Hagan would not be a particularly reliable party line vote - she is actually opposed to SCHIP expansion.

Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Amazing that the Maine race, considered early on to be at or near the top of the list of pickup opportunities, is now just 9th. That partially is a testament to Collins' ability to sell her moderate image despite a voting record to the contrary, but there are just so many other wonderful possibilities for Dems at the moment. Collins continues to hover just over 50% in polls, and this one will certainly tighten as November draws closer. If Iraq is still a major mobilizing issue in Maine, the solidly progressive Allen has a decent chance.

Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
There are two ways to look at this. One, Musgrove is kind of a schmuck. He would be rather infuriating as a Blue Dog senator, breaking with the party on many important issues. But on the other hand, he would be a Democratic Senator from deep red Mississippi. If you didn't hear, Democrat Travis Childers won a recent special election victory in Wicker's deep red former district, which is of course a fantastic sign. Wicker still has to be the favorite, but Obama coattails may just be enough to put Musgrove over the top.

Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Challenger: State Rep. & Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
While not moving the Texas race up to Leans R, this race has definitely picked up some momentum in recent weeks. Two polls in May had Noriega within five points of the odious Cornyn. I am an enthusiastic supporter of Noriega's; he would be one of the more exciting Democrats to have in the Senate and is rock solid on all the major issues; plus he can likely appeal to disaffected Republicans in West and South Texas. Noriega is actually taking two weeks off at the moment to complete his annual National Guard training; how can chickenhawk Cornyn possibly match up with that? If Noriega can raise some serious $ over the summer and/or the DSCC makes a financial committment, this race moves up the ranks.

Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R) - upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Commerce Sec. Bruce Lunsford
I must admit I'm conflicted about this race. Same issue as Mississippi, really. Lunsford isn't so much a Blue Dog as just a classic pro-business "Republicrat". He's actually endorsed and donated to McConnell in the past. But then again, he may actually knock off the GOP Minority Leader. Revenge for Daschle in '04 would be pretty sweet, and polls have them running in a dead heat. Of course, McConnell has about $10 million to play with, or else a more competitive ranking would be deserved. Only time will tell.

Idaho (OPEN): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Nominee: Fmr Rep. Larry LaRocco
Republican Nominee: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
No real updates since the March version. LaRocco continues to rule and Risch continues to be a schmuck, but there hasn't been a poll of the matchup in a long time and no major stories have broken on either candidate. One potential issue lurks, however: Risch apparently is encouraging Kuwait to dump enormous amounts of radioactive waste in Idaho. I'm sure Idahoans will loooooove that.

Kansas (Pat Roberts): 3 (Favored R) - 2 point upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Rep. Jim Slattery
Talk about your turnarounds! As of my last roundup, it seemed that Democrats would be unable to find a credible challenger to relatively unpopular Bush enabler Pat Roberts, former chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Then lobbyist and former Congressman Jim Slattery stepped up at the last minute. As lobbyists go, he seems to be okay and really gets it on financial regulation issues. He has only recently launched his official campaign, but a poll had him within just 12 with very low name recognition against the universally known Roberts (and Obama only down 9 to McCain!). Slattery has to prove he is willing to fight a nasty battle against a savvy politician likely to go hard negative, but if he has the drive and fundraising ability, he just may have a shot.

Note: I'd like to take a second and point out that Democrats are legitimately competitive in an astounding 14 seats. That makes the current ceiling 65 (with Lieberman) if everything breaks positively. Could we see a Constitutional Amendment or two pass in the next few years?

Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
This race does have sleeper possibilities. Rice is an exciting young (meaning 32 years old) Harvard grad and popular state legislator from Oklahoma City. Inhofe is notorious for his staunch global warming denial. In addition, he very recently put out a campaign ad suggesting Iraq to be in Africa. If the stereotypes of Oklahoma as a state full of ignorant yokels are accurate, Inhofe is the perfect Senator for them. My co-worker and friend lives in Oklahoma, personally knows Andrew Rice and suggests he is light years too liberal to win a statewide election there.

Nebraska (OPEN): 2 (Probable R)
Democratic Nominee: Scott Kleeb
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Kleeb is a netroots favorite, but like Rice he is really young to be running for the Senate. Johanns is a top-tier candidate for the GOP and while Nebraska may actually be somewhat competitive on the presidential level, it's hard to see Kleeb making Johanns seriously sweat barring some sort of scandal (which is certainly a possibility with any prominent Republican these days).

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke
Tuke will have to run a stellar campaign and/or a bombshell scandal will have to be unearthed on the relatively well-regarded Alexander for this to become a top-tier race. But hey, anything's possible.

Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: TBD (nominee not known until August 5th)
There are four or five viable candidates for the Democratic nod. Although national Dems despise Chambliss for the way he viciously smeared war hero Max Cleland in '02, it would probably take Cleland himself to make the race close. Cleland's not running, leaving a bunch of 3rd-tier candidates in the mix. One guy, former state rep. and Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Martin, could make things slightly interesting, but he's polling about third in the primary.

Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was a top-tier challenger flirting with a run in State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but he declined in lieu of Ms. Figures. It's a shame, because Sparks was a very intriguing potential candidate. Figures, meanwhile, is African-American and therefore likely to lose big in Alabama along with Barack Obama. Sadly, it doesn't even matter how effective a campaigner she is.

Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough
Barrasso lucked out by avoiding a matchup with Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal and any serious primary competition in a special election. The Dem bench in Wyoming beyond the centrist Freudenthal is virtually nonexistent, so both Senate seats are virtual locks.

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Attorney Michael Cone
The biggest threat to Graham is in the GOP primary, from RNC member Buddy Witherspoon among something like eight other lesser-known candidates. Conservatives in SC seem very frustrated with Graham, but not enough to cost him his seat.

Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran is an icon in Mississippi. He was thinking about retiring after losing his Appropriations Committee chairmanship as Dems took the Senate, but decided otherwise. A couple top-tier Dems decided to pass on a challenge. That's really all that matters here.

Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Prof. Chris Rothfuss
Rothfuss is an interesting character, but that doesn't get him more than 30% in what may be the reddest state in the country. Hey, at least there's a Democratic challenger for every GOP-held seat, which is a pretty major accomplishment.


Democratic-held Seats (12)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 7 (Leans D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy, turncoat Democrat
Landrieu has done a terrific job consolidating her support early on and has proven that Kennedy will have to step things up a notch to defeat her. She has a huge money advantage and has led in every poll taken thus far, including a couple by double digits. It really says something that this, the only realistic GOP pickup opportunity, may be starting to slip away a full five months before election day. Of course, that could change quickly as Kennedy goes on the attack, but for now one has to give a definitive edge to the incumbent.

South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 9 (Probable D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
At this point I would be shocked if this race ended up in single digits. Of course anything can happen and another health issue for Sen. Johnson, who suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage only 18 months ago, could make things more interesting. Nevertheless, Dykstra does not seem to have the name recognition or fundraising prowess to give Johnson any sort of scare in the absence of unforeseen events.

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Challenger: Lobbyist & Fmr Rep. Dick Zimmer
After a ton of flux in this race until yesterday, I thought about upgrading this to a 10. Rep. Rob Andrews decided to launch a quixotic primary challenge to Lautenberg and lost by over 30 points on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GOP barely avoided a major embarrassment by recruiting Dick Zimmer, an accomplished politician, into the race at the last minute. While he may be able to capitalize on an unforeseen event, Lautenberg is likely way too experienced and vetted for that to happen.

Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk
After the three races above, the field just gets embarrassing for the GOP. This should be around a 20-point blowout, and it only gets worse moving down the list.

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jay Wolfe
Not really sure who this Wolfe guy is, but maybe some people will only look at their first names and get confused. Rockefeller is a household name in WV. Nothing to see here....

Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Dr. Steve Sauerberg
Sauerberg seems to have some money and will at least run an active race. Nevertheless, nobody short of Michael Jordan could beat the very powerful Durbin. Another blowout.

Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: Bob Kelleher
Wow, I'm really not sure what to make of this race now. Baucus has been pretty safe for some time, but Tuesday's GOP primary yielded a truly shocking nominee. Voters bypassed both of the leading candidates to pick the 85-year old retired attorney and activist Bob Kelleher. This race may actually turn out to be really fun; Kelleher once ran for Senate with the Green Party, and if he campaigns will probably be attacking Baucus from the left. He seems very, er, colorful on the surface (for comparison, imagine if Lyndon LaRouche won a major party Senate nomination), and may turn out to be the first Republican I've ever enjoyed following.
Oh, here's the official reaction from a leading progressive Montana blog:

OMG!!!!! Bob Kelleher. OMG!!!!!!

It's worth scrolling down through the comments of the linked post if you want a laugh.

Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Christopher Reed
Apparently Reed winning his primary yesterday was also an upset. Nobody really knows who he is. I don't think Harkin's had a truly easy victory in his long Senate career, so I guess he's due for a cakewalk.

Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Yet another huge embarrassment for the GOP. They had handpicked recent congressional nominee Jim Ogonowski to take on Kerry, and he had raised nearly a million dollars to this point. Well, the filing deadline was yesterday and guess what? The supposedly second-best NRSC recruit of the cycle didn't even qualify for the ballot. Truly pathetic. I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry.

Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: NONE
Arkansas?! They couldn't find a live body who wanted to run for Senate in Arkansas?! Now this one clearly deserves a laugh. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE
The real election may be in early 2009, after Biden is appointed to be Obama's Sec of State. We shall see....

Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE


Summary
Democratic pickups are bolded
10 (Definite D): AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, WV
9 (Probable D): NJ, SD, VA
8 (Favored D): CO, NM
7 (Leans D): LA, NH
6 (Barely D): NONE
5 (Barely R): AK, MN, OR
4 (Leans R): ME, MS-B, NC
3 (Favored R): ID, KS, KY, TX
2 (Probable R): NE, OK, TN
1 (Definite R): AL, GA, MS-A, SC, WY-A, WY-B

Methodology
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%