Other places to obtain info about the 2008 Senate picture:
http://www.senateguru.com/
Wikipedia entry on the elections
CQPolitics ratings page
Chris Cilizza's The Fix top ten senate races
The rankings this time will still be arranged by party, but this time the order will be based on the chance of flipping parties.
Current breakdown: 49D, 49R, 2I
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challenger: State Treasurer John Kennedy
A few months ago, Karl Rove convinced Kennedy to switch parties for this race. It takes a special kind of stupid to switch to this GOP at a time when they're in free fall. Nevertheless he is a top-tier candidate and this will be by far the toughest seat for Dems to hold. I think Landrieu will ultimately win, mostly because she will outspend Kennedy, perhaps significantly so including help from the national parties. Much hinges on how effectively Kennedy can campaign on a message of reform.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 8 (Favored D)
Key Challenger: ex-Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby (considering), ???
Boy, has this been an embarrassment for the GOP Senate campaign committee (NRSC). Kirby is their eleventh choice, after the first ten declined to run. Kirby has been defeated easily in two past statewide elections, and he owned a business that scraped skin off cadavers for elective surgery (eg penis enlargements). I REALLY hope he does decide to run, he will make for great comedic material. A recent poll has Sen. Johnson beating him 70-19, so, yeah. If nobody else steps up soon Johnson will run away with a race in which he was previously in serious jeopardy.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challengers: Real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, others
Amazingly, this is the only other state with a legitimate challenger and a somewhat vulnerable incumbent. That said, Estabrook has never run for political office and Dirty Jerz has showed no signs of supporting a Republican at the national level. Lautenberg's approval ratings are pretty weak, somewhere in the mid-40s, but that's actually better than just about every other politician in Jersey.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: US Attorney Chuck Banks (considering)
Via Wikipedia -
Mike Huckabee ruled out a run on February 23, 2008, saying, "It's more likely I'll dye my hair green, get a bunch of tattoos and go on tour with Amy Winehouse."HAHA. Considering he was basically their only chance, it looks like smooth sailing for the savvy Pryor.
Montana (Max Baucus): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: none of note
As most people who follow politics closely know by now, Montana is becoming a purplish-blue state. Baucus was a popular senator even when the state was deep red, so there is no reason to believe he'd be in any trouble now. Yet again, no legitimate challenger has emerged for the GOP.
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challengers: TBD
Harkin has proven to be a consistently solid progressive voice during his years in the senate, and is pretty popular in IA (approval ratings around 58%). A couple GOP congressmen have expressed vague interest in a run, but nothing definitive is on the rumor mill at the moment. Even if one were to step up, they would be very unlikely to keep Harkin below 53%.
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Levin, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. It is not surprising that he has not drawn a significant challenge. A couple state Reps. will vie for the right to get clobbered in November.
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Needless to say, Rockefeller is a pretty esteemed name in WV. He is expected to win easily.
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Jim Ogonowski
Republicans think Iraq vet Ogonowski could be a formidable candidate. He did come close in a recent special congressional election, but against a very weak Democrat in a relatively conservative district. I'm hoping the NRSC backs up their words and wastes some money in the expensive Boston media market.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Steve Sauerberg, MD
Majority Whip Durbin should win handily this November. At least give the GOP credit for fielding a respectable candidate with personal wealth to put into the race.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
After Biden dropped his presidential bid, he settled back to the Senate knowing he will be there as long as he wants. Nothing to see here.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
Reed is a very popular senator in probably the bluest state in the country. You do the math.
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN - John Warner): 9 (Probable D)
Key Democrat: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Key Republican: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
It looks like a Warner will remain in this seat. Mark Warner remains incredibly popular while Gilmore, well, isn't. The VA-GOP made a big mistake in leaning towards the more conservative Gilmore over moderate Rep. Tom Davis, who is now retiring. Meanwhile, Warner would be the odds-on favorite to be Obama's running mate if he weren't a virtual shoo-in for this seat.
New Mexico (OPEN - Pete Domenici): 8 (Favored D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Udall
Key Republicans: Reps. Heather Wilson, Steve Pearce
This is a wild one; all three of NM's sitting congresspeople are in this race. Sen. Domenici was an icon in the state but retired due to declining mental health and involvement in the US Attorney scandal, which also hurt Heather Wilson. Udall has a clear path to the nomination, while Wilson and Pearce are locked in an ugly primary battle. Polls have Udall consistently beating either one by double digits. Things could change, but at this point Udall seems relatively safe.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
This is a rematch of the 2002 contest, where Sununu won narrowly. He is facing a much different political environment this time around, and his unwavering support for the Iraq War will hurt him badly in a fiercely anti-war state. Shaheen is a very savvy politician and should win rather comfortably unless somehow McCain wins the state and delivers Independent voters to Sununu in droves.
Colorado (OPEN - Wayne Allard): 6 (Barely D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall
Key Republican: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Udall seemed to have an early lead, but recent polls have showed a tight race. Schaffer might be a little too conservative for what is now considered a swing state, and Udall is quite popular. As well, the financial states of the national parties and the potential for Obama coattails suggest Udall is in a good situation here.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challengers: Al Franken, Mike Ciresi
I am very pleased to say Franken is gaining momentum and becoming more and more formidable as the race progresses. He has shown he can be taken seriously and is building an effective grassroots operation. The state party has been gradually lining up behind him. A recent string of polls has him beating Coleman in a head-to-head matchup, and it seems he is pulling away from Ciresi in the primary race. However, Coleman is an extremely talented politician and will definitely not go down without an ugly fight. Whatever happens, this will be one of the highest-profile races of 2008.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Key Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Stevens is the elder statesman of the Senate GOP caucus, and at 85 he has filed to run for re-election. He is also incredibly arrogant and openly corrupt, digging in his heels to secure the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" and getting caught in a major bribery scandal. Voters in Alaska are starting to turn on him, and he has drawn a very tough challenger in the popular mayor Mark Begich, who already has solid name recognition statewide and just announced his long-rumored candidacy. This used to be a darkhorse race, but now it is simply a top-tier one. Alaska could undergo a blue tidal wave in 2008.
Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
This is one of the two key bellwether races of the 2008 cycle. If Allen defeats Collins, the Democrats will come very close to, and perhaps reach, the magical 60-seat threshold. Allen is a top-tier challenger, but Collins has a very moderate image and is popular. Then again, so was Lincoln Chafee. If Allen can tie Collins to Bush and make the election a referendum on the Iraq war (easier with McCain on the presidential ticket), he can pull it off.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challengers: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, activist Steve Novick
See above. This is the other key bellwether race. Merkley will likely be the Democratic nominee and give Smith a run for his money if he can challenge the incumbent's moderate image. In this case, Merkley's hot button issues will be more focused on economic and environmental policy than the Iraq war, as ol' Gordo has been a key ally of polluters and mining/logging interests. Time will tell on this one, and it will not fully heat up until the Dem primary.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker - formerly Trent Lott): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
If this wasn't a deeply Republican state, the race would be labeled at least a toss-up. Musgrove has much higher name recognition than Wicker and remains somewhat popular. Yet a controversy over the special election date has yielded a date the same as the general election. Things are still in flux and much may depend on Wicker's performance as a first-year senator.
Idaho (OPEN - Larry Craig): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: Former Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republican: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, many challenger candidates
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Idaho! Well, happenings in a Minnesota airport bathroom changed all that. With Larry "wide stance" Craig retiring, Risch has become the frontrunner in a wild GOP primary. Larry LaRocco was already in the race, and has been campaigning fiercely for a year now. He has been championing a libertarian populist message similar to the kind that worked so well for Brian Schweitzer in Montana. Meanwhile, Risch's naked personal ambition has alienated a lot of people within the ID GOP. Many commentators have this as an easy Risch win, but don't be surprised if it turns out to be close. With the x-factor of Obama coattails thrown in, this could turn out to be a major sleeper race of 2008.
Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: State Rep. Rick Noriega
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Texas! However, Cornyn is one of the least popular sitting senators with approval ratings in the low 40s, and can be tied to Bush more closely than almost any other person in Congress. Noriega, an Iraq war vet, is well-situated to attack Cornyn's chickenhawk foreign policy and has proven himself to handle attacks well. Last month, when the Texas GOP publicly demanded that Noriega release his military service records to them (presumably for Swiftboating material), he responded as such:
The Republican Party of Texas, and by extension, Senator John Cornyn, has requested that I release my military records to them. I am astounded and outraged at the implications of this request. Over the past few years, some Republicans have conducted the most dishonest and disreputable attacks on veterans that our nation has ever seen.Then he released his records to the public to show the contrast with Sen. Chickenhawk. This episode shows that this should be a very fun race to watch, and has great sleeper potential.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challengers: State Sen. Kay Hagan, Businessman Jim Neal
The DSCC has made clear that they consider Dole a vulnerable candidate, and while neither of the leading candidates for the Dem nomination are of the top-tier variety, either could still keep it close. The primary race seems to have an insider-outsider dynamic, with Hagan representing the party insiders and Neal more of the activist variety. It remains to be seen who emerges from the primary contest, so a more clear analysis of the race should develop once there is a nominee. Either way, Dole will likely have a sizable money advantage, so she has to be the clear favorite at this point.
Nebraska (OPEN - Chuck Hagel): 2 (Probable R)
Key Democrats: Scott Kleeb, Businessman Tony Raimondo
Key Republican: Fmr Gov. & Sec. of Agriculture Mike Johanns
This race showed a flash of top-tier potential at one point; right after Hagel announced his retirement, Former Gov. Bob Kerrey seriously considered entering the race and would have been an early favorite. However, he decided against a run, as did popular Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. Yet many party activists view Kleeb as a rising star and were excited when he recently decided to jump in. His primary opposition, Raimondo, is basically a wealthy Republican who decided he'd have a better shot to win as a Democrat. Ugh. Methinks Kleeb could make it somewhat close if he gets out of the primary, he's a fiery young outsider who seems to have a finger on the pulse of the Cornhusker State, whereas Johanns has spent recent years engaged in Beltway politics. For now, Johanns is a heavy favorite.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Inhofe is the prime exemplar of the Republican head-in-the-sand approach to climate change. He is somewhat of a joke, dumb as a rock and has approval ratings under 50%. The 32-year-old Andrew Rice is definitely a rising star in the state and has consolidated support among party leaders and national activist groups. If he can capitalize on the backlash against two certifiably crazy Sooner senators and gets some support from the national party, it could become very interesting. Nevertheless, it is Oklahoma so Inhofe will likely retain his seat.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challengers: Businessmen Bruce Lunsford, Greg Fischer
In an otherwise successful year for the DSCC, Kentucky has been a major recruiting disappointment. A few strong challengers declined to run, even when polling had them competitive with the Senate Minority Leader. Instead, KY Dems get to choose between a couple of businessmen, and the frontrunner Lunsford has personal wealth but a truckload of baggage. National Dems will invest moderately in the race but the ruthless tactician McConnell will likely spend over $10 million to defend his seat, and barring some sort of scandal it is hard to see how he loses.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke (considering)
After the top Dem choice, Mike McWherter, declined a run, it looked like Alexander might go without a serious challenge in his first re-election bid. He is also the #3 ranking member in the Senate GOP caucus and appears to be a formidable candidate. But it looks like Dem party insider Bob Tuke will run for the seat. We don't know what kind of candidate Tuke will be, but chances are Alexander wins easily.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was hope of a serious challenge to Sessions in state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but Sparks decided to avoid a bruising primary fight with Figures and bowed out. Figures is a smart campaigner and solid Democrat, but unfortunately cannot win a statewide election as an African-American progressive woman. She may hold Sessions below 60%, however, which positions this seat as the least guaranteed among the "sure thing" list.
Wyoming-B (John Barasso): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough, Atty Nick Carter (considering)
Barasso was appointed last year by Gov. Dave Freudenthal after Craig Thomas passed away, and he has not drawn significant opposition for November's special election. At least he will have some Dem opposition. The only chance this gets interesting is if Freudenthal decides to run, which is extremely unlikely.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: none of note
Roberts is not particularly popular with approval ratings hanging in the upper 40s, but no viable Democrat has stepped to to challenge him. It looks like he will coast to re-election.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Vernon Jones, Dale Cardwell, Josh Lanier
Democrats truly despise Chambliss for the loathsome smears he launched against former Sen. Max Cleland last time around, questioning the patriotism of a Vietnam Vet and triple amputee. However, Georgia is one of the few states still trending towards the GOP and no top-tier or even second-tier challenger has emerged. Whomever emerges from the Dem primary, expect Chambliss to win by a 2:1 margin.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Attorney Michael Cone, many angry Republicans
Graham is in no danger whatsoever of being defeated by a Democrat. He may be challenged from the right, however, as he has a horde of primary opponents including RNC member Buddy Witherspoon. He should be fine, although it'll be fun to watch the fireworks attacking Graham for not being crazy enough.
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Former State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran, the Appropriations Committee Ranking Member and former Chair and a long-time Senate veteran, will coast to another easy victory.
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: none
Enzi, unless he unexpectedly retires, will likely go unopposed in his run for re-election.
Whew! So there you have it. The totals:
(Republican seats bolded)
Definite Dem: DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, RI, WV
Probable Dem: AR, MT, NJ, VA
Favored Dem: NM, SD
Leans Dem: NH
Barely Dem: CO, LA, MN
Barely GOP: AK
Leans GOP: ME, OR
Favored GOP: ID, MS, NC, TX
Probable GOP: KY, NE, OK, TN
Definite GOP: AL, GA, KS, MS, SC, WY, WY
Prediction: 7 Dem Pickups and Lieberman caucuses with Republicans.
Final result: 56D, 42R, 2I
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