Cutting through the Hillary-induced mayhem

There seem to be an awful lot of polemics floating around following last Tuesday's elections. Among my favorites:
-The race is thrown wide open! Anybody could win!
-Obama is in deep trouble!
-Hillary might steal the election with the superdelegates!
-A prolonged election will tear the party apart and deliver it to McCain!
-And my personal favorite: Hillary Clinton WON HUGE on Tuesday!

I have one simple reaction to all of the Chicken-Little reactionaries: PLEASE. CALM. DOWN.

Thankfully, every single one of these arguments is complete hooey. It'll take a couple posts to fully explain why, but this one will elucidate why Obama is still holding a commanding and likely insurmountable lead.

First off, I do give the Clinton campaign credit for keeping up the fight and staying alive with a big win in Ohio (notwithstanding some potential funny business in Cleveland). Yet Clinton by no means cleaned up overall that night, and as we shall soon see, is actually worse off now than she was on March 3rd.

Regardless of what the Very Serious talking heads would like you to think, math matters. Ultimately, this is a delegate race, and Obama has actually gained 13 delegates overall since last Monday. Let's break it down.

First, the big 3/4 elections (plus Wyoming):
OH - O66, C75
RI - O8, C13
VT - O9, C6
TX - O99, C94
WY O7, C5
Total - O189, C193

Next, the superdelegate endorsements:

Obama

1. DNC Carol Fowler (SC), 3-4-08
2. Mary Long (GA), 3-4-08
3. Roy LaVerne Brooks (TX), 3-4-08
4. Rhine McLin (OH), 3-5-08
5. DNC Jane Kidd (GA), 3-5-08
6. DNC Darlena Williams-Burnett (IL), 3-5-08
7. DNC Connie Thurman (IN), 3-6-08
8. Rep. Nick Rahall (WV), 3-6-08
9. DNC Teresa Benitez-Thompson (NV), 3-6-08
10. DNC Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker (CA), 3-7-08
11. Rep. Bill Foster (IL), 3-9-08
12. DNC Mary Jo Neville (OH), 3-9-08

Clinton

1. Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), 3-6-08
2. DNC Mona Mohib (DC), 3-6-08
3. DNC Aleita Huguenin (CA), 3-7-08
4. DNC Mary Lou Winters (LA), 3-8-08

Total - O12, C4

So far, Obama has gained four delegates since the sky has fallen on him. Then, factor in the fact that the certification of the California results transferred four delegates from Clinton to Obama, netting him eight more in the process (he gains four, Clinton loses four). Finally, odd caucus rules dictate that Wyoming pledged delegates select another at-large delegate who will almost certainly support Obama, bringing his total gain up to 13 during the period in question.

So Hillary has lost ground where it counts, in the delegate race. Meanwhile about a third of the remaining pledged delegates were selected last Tuesday. With Obama expected to win big tomorrow in Mississippi, she faces an extremely difficult uphill battle where she must win close to 70% of remaining delegates to catch Obama. Given the makeup of the delegate selection process, this is just about impossible. Even if Obama somehow implodes and she wins by 25% in all the remaining elections, she will gain a mere 40-50 delegates. More likely, things will remain about even or Obama will slightly expand his lead.

But wait, Pennsylvania is huge and a Clinton stronghold! Even if she wins comfortably, it's not big enough to overpower Obama's significant advantages in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and perhaps Indiana.

But wait, what about Michigan and Florida? First of all, there is no way the Michigan delegation is seated as is. The accusations that Clinton is cheating would be deafening. With Florida, at least Obama was on the ballot, but it still was not a fair and representative election. Expect a re-vote, where Clinton gains maybe 15-20 net delegates between the two states. Expect Obama to actually pick up a few delegates in Michigan unless state party leaders execute a solid GOTV operation for Clinton like in Ohio (her campaign simply can't do it on its own).

But wait, what about the superdelegates?! She might "steal the election from the voters" there, her campaign is openly supporting their goal of doing so. Well last time I checked, superdelegates are elected officials and party loyalists. Whether or not they support Clinton or think she's more electable (assumptions for which there's absolutely no evidence), they will not destroy the long-term health of the party and their own careers by alienating passionate young voters, subverting what passes for a democratic process in the state primaries and caucuses, and rewarding Clinton's snakelike campaign tactics that reinforce right-wing frames of politics-as-usual. Not a chance.

To sum all this up, for all the smoke screens the formidable Clinton PR machine has emitted in recent weeks, time will prove the current haze over the status of Obama's nomination to be nothing but hot air. I implore you, please don't waste your energy fretting over the last throes of a Clinton campaign unwilling to accept the inevitable.