Showing posts with label 2008 senate elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 senate elections. Show all posts
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election predictions
Here is what I expect for tomorrow's election:
Obama wins 53-45 with 1-2% voting for someone else.
He will amass 359 EV's, by winning all the Kerry states and picking up Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.
Three other potential Obama states - Georgia, Indiana and Missouri - will be slight losses due to voting "irregularities". Each of these state governments is dominated by Republicans, and the urban minority areas will be plagued by massive lines, voter intimidation and potential other funny business.
In the Senate, Democrats will pick up eight seats tomorrow: Virginia (Warner), New Mexico (T. Udall), Colorado (M. Udall), Alaska (Begich), New Hampshire (Shaheen), Oregon (Merkley), North Carolina (Hagan), Minnesota (Franken). Georgia's race will go to an early December runoff, and odious incumbent Saxby Chambliss will prevail in a nailbiter. Lieberman will lose his committee chairmanship but will reluctantly decide to remain in the Dem caucus. Thus, Democrats will end up with 59 members, but still be able to break some GOP filibusters by flipping moderates like Snowe, Specter and, yes, the re-re-reinvented McMaverick.
The House is more nebulous (too many damn races to follow), but I expect around 30-35 D pickups and 2-4 R pickups.
Dems pick up the Missouri governorship, and all others remain in current hands. Dems pick up the NY State Senate and prepare to eradicate the state of all Republican congresscritters after the 2010 census.
California's Proposition 8 (gay marriage ban) fails. South Dakota's abortion ban, designed specifically for a Roe v. Wade challenge fails. Affirmative action banning and anti-worker initiatives all fail. Massachusetts' measure eliminating the income tax fails, but marijuana decriminalization passes.
Can you say landslide?
Make your own predictions here.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
October 2008 Senate Roundup
And down the stretch they come! The landscape hasn't changed drastically since the last update in June, although a few races have moved a category or two. If you can believe it, the situation has gotten even better for the Dem-held seats, as it looks like they will all be retained. Meanwhile, the hierarchy of GOP races has stayed much the same in terms of competitiveness, although three (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina) have jumped two categories while three others (Idaho, Kansas and Maine) have fallen two categories. Dems are now poised to grab at least seven seats, and the ceiling at this point seems to be somewhere in the 10-12 range.
This will be my last full set of rankings, although I will post an update on competitive races during the week before election day.
Here's the key, same as usual:
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
To the rankings!
Summary (pickups in italics)
10: AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, VA, WV
9: NJ
8: LA, NM
7: AK, CO, NH
6: NC, OR
5: MN
4: MS-B
3: GA, KY
2: ME, SC, TX
1: AL, ID, KS, MS-A, NE, OK, TN, WY-A, WY-B
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Democratic Candidate: (Popular) Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Candidate: (Less Popular) Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
This race has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Organizing in northern Virginia, I have seen a whole bunch of Obama/Warner posters and yard signs. It's one of those rare instances where up-ballot coattails could help carry this all-important swing state for Barack. Another note: for some reason this has been one of the most often-polled Senate races. Pollsters should save their $$ - no poll has shown Gilmore within 20 points. The only question remaining is what committees Warner will get onto in the 111th Congress.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Candidate: Rep. Steve Pearce
A contest between two sitting Congressmen, this contest was bound to tighten a bit as election day drew nearer and voters started paying more attention. Nevertheless, Udall remains projected to win by a low-double digit margin (something like 56-44). The NRSC has written off New Mexico, seeing this seat as a lost cause. Really not much else to say...I think Udall will be a fantastic Senator.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - slight downgrade
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado is a top-tier presidential swing state this year, and its senate race has been no different; it has garned much attention from the DSCC and NRSC and has stayed consistently in single digits. Udall remains a clear favorite, but he has failed to pull away from the batnuts crazy Schaffer, whose views are even considered extreme as compared to the current group of shit-flinging howler monkeys (h/t Trapper John for that wonderfully descriptive term) known as the House Republican Caucus. Schaffer has also been caught up in numerous corruption scandals, the most notable being his ties to the infamous superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Udall remains up by mere single digits, it will take a dramatic game-changing event for him to lose.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 7 (Leans D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
This race was looking pretty good even before Stevens was indicted a couple months ago. Now Begich is clearly in the driver's seat. Even though the Alaska titan Stevens, who has been in the Senate almost as long as Alaska has been a state, may be able to beat his corruption charges, his brand is still highly tainted due to all the negative spotlight. And for reference, a perception of impropriety among the Alaska Republican establishment was precisely what swept Sarah Palin into office in 2006. Begich seems to have strong integrity, high name recognition and has some great ideas on energy and transitioning to a green economy. Another guy I would be proud to call a Senator.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Although Sununu's September attack ad blitz has tightened the race a bit, he still remains fundamentally unpopular, as he has consistently shilled for the horrendously unpopular Bush administration and continues to do so even now. It's hard to see how he overcomes that albatross with this election climate.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 6 (Barely D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
Over the past few weeks, Hagan has pulled into a definitive lead over the frankly incompetent Senator Dole. The DSCC has invested massively on Hagan's behalf, and their hard-hitting ads highlighting Liddy Dole's ties to George Bush, general ineffectiveness and questionable ties to North Carolina (her primary residence is DC's infamous Watergate Hotel) have clearly had an effect. Surely the Republican establishment will hit back on the incumbent's behalf, but it seems like the damage has been done.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 6 (Barely D) - upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
This movement is really exciting to see; Merkley has the potential to be a great progressive Senator. He engineered a Democratic takeover of the Oregon State House in 2006 and proceeded to preside over one of the most successful legislative sessions in recent history. He has fantastic views on energy, transportation, social and economic issues - the whole gamut of domestic affairs. Smith could still win as polls are showing a virtual tie, but he has really disgusted some Oregonians by trying to heavyhandedly run away from his party. It is hard to see how he overcomes that loss of credibility.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R)
Democratic Challenger: Al Franken
Notable Independent Candidate: Dean Barkley
I predicted a really nasty race, and am sorry to say I have not been disappointed. Coleman, the former radical hippie activist, is truly a worm. He catapulted into office on the back of faux GOP outrage over the injection of (gasp) politics into progressive hero Paul Wellstone's funeral following his tragic plane crash (I still suspect foul play). And Franken is the perfect man to pick up the Wellstone mantle, being a proud Democrat and not afraid to stand up for his values in the face of criticism. This election is looking much like a toss-up, and will greatly depend on Obama's ability to establish coattails for Franken. Note that Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is generating a significant amount of support and may end up getting close to 20% of the vote.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Somewhat surprisingly, not much has changed overall in the dynamics of this contest. While Musgrove has generally run away from the national Democrats, his chances ironically still reside in the upswell in African-American voters from the Obama campaigns organizing efforts. If I had to guess I would say Wicker pulls it off, but this one is certainly a real Dem pickup opportunity. This would be the seat that gets the Dems to 60 Senators (including Lieberman), so expect ample national party committee expenditures in MS during the camapign's final weeks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Challenger: Rich Businessman Bruce Lunsford
Polls have McConnell ahead somewhere in the single digits, at it will likely remain that way through election day. It would be great to knock off the odious Senate GOP leader McConnell, but at this point a Lunsford victory would merely be the cherry on top of an already sweet election season. McConnell still has a ton of $ in the bank so he should be able to pull out a win.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 3 (Favored R) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Jim Martin
Libertarian Challenger: Allen Buckley
Wow. I really didn't expect this race to tighten, but it has. Obama's investment in Georgia, Chambliss' general arrogance and the deregulation-fueled financial crisis have driven a previously afterthought contest into competitive status. I will need to see a couple more tight polls to be convinced that Martin can win, but man would this be a pleasant surprise. Martin is actually a good, honest guy who would stand with the Dems on most major issues. Expect the DSCC to invest heavily, they really hate Chambliss and if they can siphon enough resources from other places like New Mexico and Maine, GA-Sen has a shot to be the shocker of the 2008 elections.
Texas (John Cornyn): 2 (Probable R) - slight downgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Rep. and Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
Yeah, it's Texas, and while making strides in the right direction, Texas is still unquestionably a red state. But Noriega is running as a proud netroots-style progressive and is gradually closing the gap on the odious chickenhawk Bush-shill Cornyn. While Noriega is badly outgunned financially, the race's margin now hovers in the high single digits. A strong finish by Noriega combined with huge youth and minority turnout could lead to a stunning upset and a great Democratic Senator from Texas. Oh yeah - Cornyn takes the honors for worst campaign ad of the 2008 election cycle.
Maine (Susan Collins): 2 (Probable R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Originally a top-tier pickup target, Maine's contest now ranks just 13th on the list of pickup opportunities. As much as they have tried, Allen and the DSCC simply have not been able to chip away at Sen. Collins' high approval ratings. I believe such popularity is thoroughly undeserved, but she benefits from the coattails of actually moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe and former liberal Republicans that historically dominated the state. It's hard to see how that changes with just a month until election day. Oh well.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 2 (Probable R) - upgrade
"Democratic" Challenger: Bob Conley
Weird. Two recent polls have Graham leading the DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Conley by just nine points. Perhaps conservatives have been impressed by Conley's hardline stances on immigration and crime prevention - he's actually running to the right of Graham on these issues. Graham will almost definitely win, but it's interesting to note that some of this movement may be due to economic trends and a general "throw the bums out" kind of attitude.
Nebraska (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - downgrade
Republican Candidate: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Democratic Candidate: Scott Kleeb
Some lefty activists continue to hold out hope for Kleeb, but I just can't see it. The state is too deeply conservative and Kleeb just doesn't have the name recognition in the eastern part of the state that isn't quite so ruby red.
Idaho (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Republican Candidate: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
I had hopes for this to be the stunning upset of the election cycle but it just never materialized. Idaho remains one of the most strongly Republican states in the country and LaRocco's support seems to be topped out at around 35-38%.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Rice is a very intriguing young Democrat; in just his early 30's, he seems to have a very bright future and may indeed find himself in the Senate one day. But 2008 is not that day. While Inhofe is truly insane and Oklahomans should be embarrassed to have him as a Senator, they aren't.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Former Rep. Jim Slattery
During the early summer this race was showing glimpses of competitiveness and Slattery had the potential to be a solid candidate, but that did not hold. Roberts wil cruise to re-election.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Bob Tuke
Nothing to see here. Tuke seems like a good guy, but hasn't caught any traction.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Nick Carter
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Erik Fleming
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Professor Chris Rothfuss
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 8 (Favored D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy
Once seen as a toss-up race, Landrieu has done a great job so far and currently has a solid double-digit lead over the recent Democratic defector Kennedy. I am being cautious and still leaving Kennedy some room to claw his way back, but with so many GOP seats in jeopardy it looks like the NRSC will not have much $ left over to invest in offense.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Republican Challenger: Former Rep. Dick Zimmer
Polls here are actually closer than in Louisiana, but New Jersey has been the ultimate GOP tease in recent years. Karl Rove & Co. spent millions in the outrageously expensive state in both 2004 and 2006, and likely lost the Senate because that spending diverted precious resources away from Virginia, Montana and Missouri. Expect a 54-46 type victory for Lautenberg.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
There's really not much to say. The GOP really blew this one with a near-total recruitment failure. Johnson will cruise to an easy victory.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
This one is only listed here because there will be an immediate special election to replace Biden when he becomes the Vice President. Note that all following races are in alphabetical order. None of the races from here on need any substantial comment. It is difficult to picture any of these Democratic incumbents winning by less than 15 points.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: NONE (there is a Green Party candidate)
Mind you this is a red state. And the party couldn't find any challenger for a supposedly vulnerable Pryor? Good lord that's pathetic.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Christopher Reed
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jack Hoogendyk
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D)
"Republican" Challenger: Bob Kelleher
This one is worth noting just because Kelleher is a really funny kook dude. He ran against Baucus last time in the Green Party. And he won a contested GOP primary. That's just sad.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Robert Tingle
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jay Wolfe
The only swing vote here may be among people named Jay.
This will be my last full set of rankings, although I will post an update on competitive races during the week before election day.
Here's the key, same as usual:
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
To the rankings!
Summary (pickups in italics)
10: AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, VA, WV
9: NJ
8: LA, NM
7: AK, CO, NH
6: NC, OR
5: MN
4: MS-B
3: GA, KY
2: ME, SC, TX
1: AL, ID, KS, MS-A, NE, OK, TN, WY-A, WY-B
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Democratic Candidate: (Popular) Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Candidate: (Less Popular) Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
This race has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Organizing in northern Virginia, I have seen a whole bunch of Obama/Warner posters and yard signs. It's one of those rare instances where up-ballot coattails could help carry this all-important swing state for Barack. Another note: for some reason this has been one of the most often-polled Senate races. Pollsters should save their $$ - no poll has shown Gilmore within 20 points. The only question remaining is what committees Warner will get onto in the 111th Congress.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Candidate: Rep. Steve Pearce
A contest between two sitting Congressmen, this contest was bound to tighten a bit as election day drew nearer and voters started paying more attention. Nevertheless, Udall remains projected to win by a low-double digit margin (something like 56-44). The NRSC has written off New Mexico, seeing this seat as a lost cause. Really not much else to say...I think Udall will be a fantastic Senator.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - slight downgrade
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado is a top-tier presidential swing state this year, and its senate race has been no different; it has garned much attention from the DSCC and NRSC and has stayed consistently in single digits. Udall remains a clear favorite, but he has failed to pull away from the batnuts crazy Schaffer, whose views are even considered extreme as compared to the current group of shit-flinging howler monkeys (h/t Trapper John for that wonderfully descriptive term) known as the House Republican Caucus. Schaffer has also been caught up in numerous corruption scandals, the most notable being his ties to the infamous superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Udall remains up by mere single digits, it will take a dramatic game-changing event for him to lose.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 7 (Leans D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
This race was looking pretty good even before Stevens was indicted a couple months ago. Now Begich is clearly in the driver's seat. Even though the Alaska titan Stevens, who has been in the Senate almost as long as Alaska has been a state, may be able to beat his corruption charges, his brand is still highly tainted due to all the negative spotlight. And for reference, a perception of impropriety among the Alaska Republican establishment was precisely what swept Sarah Palin into office in 2006. Begich seems to have strong integrity, high name recognition and has some great ideas on energy and transitioning to a green economy. Another guy I would be proud to call a Senator.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Although Sununu's September attack ad blitz has tightened the race a bit, he still remains fundamentally unpopular, as he has consistently shilled for the horrendously unpopular Bush administration and continues to do so even now. It's hard to see how he overcomes that albatross with this election climate.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 6 (Barely D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
Over the past few weeks, Hagan has pulled into a definitive lead over the frankly incompetent Senator Dole. The DSCC has invested massively on Hagan's behalf, and their hard-hitting ads highlighting Liddy Dole's ties to George Bush, general ineffectiveness and questionable ties to North Carolina (her primary residence is DC's infamous Watergate Hotel) have clearly had an effect. Surely the Republican establishment will hit back on the incumbent's behalf, but it seems like the damage has been done.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 6 (Barely D) - upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
This movement is really exciting to see; Merkley has the potential to be a great progressive Senator. He engineered a Democratic takeover of the Oregon State House in 2006 and proceeded to preside over one of the most successful legislative sessions in recent history. He has fantastic views on energy, transportation, social and economic issues - the whole gamut of domestic affairs. Smith could still win as polls are showing a virtual tie, but he has really disgusted some Oregonians by trying to heavyhandedly run away from his party. It is hard to see how he overcomes that loss of credibility.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R)
Democratic Challenger: Al Franken
Notable Independent Candidate: Dean Barkley
I predicted a really nasty race, and am sorry to say I have not been disappointed. Coleman, the former radical hippie activist, is truly a worm. He catapulted into office on the back of faux GOP outrage over the injection of (gasp) politics into progressive hero Paul Wellstone's funeral following his tragic plane crash (I still suspect foul play). And Franken is the perfect man to pick up the Wellstone mantle, being a proud Democrat and not afraid to stand up for his values in the face of criticism. This election is looking much like a toss-up, and will greatly depend on Obama's ability to establish coattails for Franken. Note that Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is generating a significant amount of support and may end up getting close to 20% of the vote.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Somewhat surprisingly, not much has changed overall in the dynamics of this contest. While Musgrove has generally run away from the national Democrats, his chances ironically still reside in the upswell in African-American voters from the Obama campaigns organizing efforts. If I had to guess I would say Wicker pulls it off, but this one is certainly a real Dem pickup opportunity. This would be the seat that gets the Dems to 60 Senators (including Lieberman), so expect ample national party committee expenditures in MS during the camapign's final weeks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Challenger: Rich Businessman Bruce Lunsford
Polls have McConnell ahead somewhere in the single digits, at it will likely remain that way through election day. It would be great to knock off the odious Senate GOP leader McConnell, but at this point a Lunsford victory would merely be the cherry on top of an already sweet election season. McConnell still has a ton of $ in the bank so he should be able to pull out a win.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 3 (Favored R) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Jim Martin
Libertarian Challenger: Allen Buckley
Wow. I really didn't expect this race to tighten, but it has. Obama's investment in Georgia, Chambliss' general arrogance and the deregulation-fueled financial crisis have driven a previously afterthought contest into competitive status. I will need to see a couple more tight polls to be convinced that Martin can win, but man would this be a pleasant surprise. Martin is actually a good, honest guy who would stand with the Dems on most major issues. Expect the DSCC to invest heavily, they really hate Chambliss and if they can siphon enough resources from other places like New Mexico and Maine, GA-Sen has a shot to be the shocker of the 2008 elections.
Texas (John Cornyn): 2 (Probable R) - slight downgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Rep. and Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
Yeah, it's Texas, and while making strides in the right direction, Texas is still unquestionably a red state. But Noriega is running as a proud netroots-style progressive and is gradually closing the gap on the odious chickenhawk Bush-shill Cornyn. While Noriega is badly outgunned financially, the race's margin now hovers in the high single digits. A strong finish by Noriega combined with huge youth and minority turnout could lead to a stunning upset and a great Democratic Senator from Texas. Oh yeah - Cornyn takes the honors for worst campaign ad of the 2008 election cycle.
Maine (Susan Collins): 2 (Probable R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Originally a top-tier pickup target, Maine's contest now ranks just 13th on the list of pickup opportunities. As much as they have tried, Allen and the DSCC simply have not been able to chip away at Sen. Collins' high approval ratings. I believe such popularity is thoroughly undeserved, but she benefits from the coattails of actually moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe and former liberal Republicans that historically dominated the state. It's hard to see how that changes with just a month until election day. Oh well.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 2 (Probable R) - upgrade
"Democratic" Challenger: Bob Conley
Weird. Two recent polls have Graham leading the DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Conley by just nine points. Perhaps conservatives have been impressed by Conley's hardline stances on immigration and crime prevention - he's actually running to the right of Graham on these issues. Graham will almost definitely win, but it's interesting to note that some of this movement may be due to economic trends and a general "throw the bums out" kind of attitude.
Nebraska (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - downgrade
Republican Candidate: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Democratic Candidate: Scott Kleeb
Some lefty activists continue to hold out hope for Kleeb, but I just can't see it. The state is too deeply conservative and Kleeb just doesn't have the name recognition in the eastern part of the state that isn't quite so ruby red.
Idaho (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Republican Candidate: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
I had hopes for this to be the stunning upset of the election cycle but it just never materialized. Idaho remains one of the most strongly Republican states in the country and LaRocco's support seems to be topped out at around 35-38%.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Rice is a very intriguing young Democrat; in just his early 30's, he seems to have a very bright future and may indeed find himself in the Senate one day. But 2008 is not that day. While Inhofe is truly insane and Oklahomans should be embarrassed to have him as a Senator, they aren't.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Former Rep. Jim Slattery
During the early summer this race was showing glimpses of competitiveness and Slattery had the potential to be a solid candidate, but that did not hold. Roberts wil cruise to re-election.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Bob Tuke
Nothing to see here. Tuke seems like a good guy, but hasn't caught any traction.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Nick Carter
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Erik Fleming
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Professor Chris Rothfuss
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 8 (Favored D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy
Once seen as a toss-up race, Landrieu has done a great job so far and currently has a solid double-digit lead over the recent Democratic defector Kennedy. I am being cautious and still leaving Kennedy some room to claw his way back, but with so many GOP seats in jeopardy it looks like the NRSC will not have much $ left over to invest in offense.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Republican Challenger: Former Rep. Dick Zimmer
Polls here are actually closer than in Louisiana, but New Jersey has been the ultimate GOP tease in recent years. Karl Rove & Co. spent millions in the outrageously expensive state in both 2004 and 2006, and likely lost the Senate because that spending diverted precious resources away from Virginia, Montana and Missouri. Expect a 54-46 type victory for Lautenberg.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
There's really not much to say. The GOP really blew this one with a near-total recruitment failure. Johnson will cruise to an easy victory.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
This one is only listed here because there will be an immediate special election to replace Biden when he becomes the Vice President. Note that all following races are in alphabetical order. None of the races from here on need any substantial comment. It is difficult to picture any of these Democratic incumbents winning by less than 15 points.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: NONE (there is a Green Party candidate)
Mind you this is a red state. And the party couldn't find any challenger for a supposedly vulnerable Pryor? Good lord that's pathetic.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Christopher Reed
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jack Hoogendyk
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D)
"Republican" Challenger: Bob Kelleher
This one is worth noting just because Kelleher is a really funny kook dude. He ran against Baucus last time in the Green Party. And he won a contested GOP primary. That's just sad.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Robert Tingle
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jay Wolfe
The only swing vote here may be among people named Jay.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
June Senate Roundup
Honestly, I'm getting pretty worn out by the marathon presidential race and especially the unbearably long nomination process that's thankfully reached its conclusion. And based on what I'm hearing from those around me, you probably are too. So as a brief respite from the BIG race, here are my June Senate rankings and race updates. With almost all of the meaningful primaries also wrapping up yesterday on the Senate front, this is a good time for a full rundown.
The wonderful news for Democrats continues unabated, as quite a few races have been upgraded since the last update in March with a mere one looking better for the GOP. Getting to sixty seats is now looking distinctly within the realm of possibility, although Dems would have to knock off some tough incumbents to get there. As a baseline, we would be looking at something around 55-58 (including Lieberman) if the elections were today; that would mean a pickup of 4-7 seats.
To the rankings! As always, 1 means Definite R while 10 means Definite D
Races are ordered by chance of flipping. If "upgrade" is listed, the race got better for the Democrats.
Oh, this time Republican seats go first, because the D-held seats are almost all foregone conclusions at this point.
See the bottom of the post for a summary and the methodology behind my number rankings.
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 9 (Probable D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
To put it simply, Virginians know Warner as the guy who cleaned up the mess that Gilmore made. Gilmore barely got the nomination Tuesday over a nobody state delegate. There's a good chance Warner will end up giving a hefty chunk of his campaign cash to the DSCC to fund other, closer contests.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Nominee: Rep. Steve Pearce
The conservative Pearce edged out faux-moderate Heather Wilson (of nipplegate fame) for the nomination. It matters little. A slew of polls have had Udall beating both by very comfortable margins. It may tighten a little, but right now it's hard to imagine Pearce winning.
Colorado (OPEN): 8 (Leans D) - 2 point upgrade
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Mark Udall (Tom's brother)
Republican Nominee: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
This contest was shaping up to be a hard-fought nailbiter. That was before the torrent of corruption revelations began to hit Schaffer. The worst one: while in congress he went on a Jack Abramoff-sponsored trip to the Mariana Islands to "investigate" sweatshop conditions, and of course reported everything to be hunky-dory. Then, in Congress he once tried to say the U.S. should emulate its workplace regulations after those of the Marianas, known as one of the most cruel places for workers in the Western Hemisphere. In other words he's a transparent Grade A Dirtbag. To make matters worse, his campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, handled Macaca Allen's implosion in 2006, so you know he can't handle PR crises particularly well. All I'm saying is, get out the popcorn, this should be entertaining to watch.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Sununu is a Bush toady representing a state that doesn't take well to toadies, and especially not the Iraq-enabling kind. Shaheen remains pretty popular and despite a few years out of the state, still has very deep roots in the NH political community. Polls have her consistently ahead by around 10 points and that probably will not change much as both have very high name ID. If McCain can sell his case on Iraq and wins the state, Sununu has a shot. Otherwise, stick a fork in him.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Boy, Alaska Republicans are a mess of corruption right now. Stevens, as the king of Alaska politics, heads the list of course with his notorious Bridge to Nowhere and much much more. Despite the good will Stevens has generated over the years, he is starting to be seen as a black eye for the state by its residents (those who pay attention, anyway). Begich, the son of beloved former congressman Nick Begich, is also well-regarded and already governs a large chunk of Alaska's population so is widely known. This matchup should be really fascinating and I expect it to resemble many of the '06 congressional campaigns. Gonna be a close one.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R) - downgrade
Challenger: Al Franken
Yikes! After I gushed about Franken in the last roundup, a major story came to light about how he owed back taxes in 17 states. The story may have been blown a little out of proportion, but it seems like it stuck as a scandal and may have opened a door for Coleman to build a narrative of Franken as dishonest and flippant. Even though the story broke a month ago or more, it is still too early to tell whether Franken can weather the storm. All we know is, there will be more storms to come; Coleman is very sleazy (yeah, even among senators) and will throw the kitchen sink at his opponent. This race may be the ugliest and nastiest one of the whole cycle, and yes that includes the presidential contest. Now that we see some chinks in Franken's armor, all bets are off.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 5 (Barely R) - upgrade
Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
The more I see of Merkley, the more I like him. This guy is just a natural leader. He got past the first step a couple weeks ago by fighting off a spirited primary challenge from activist Steve Novick, who would've made a solid albeit different candidate himself. Merkley isn't the most fiery guy out there, but he's a true progressive with a track record of getting things done. I'm guessing the election will end up as a referendum on whether Smith is actually the principled moderate that he tries to come across as. At the moment, I'm cautiously optimistic, but at the moment the incumbent has to remain a slight favorite. Oh, recent polls have the contest locked in a statistical tie.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
We already knew Liddy Dole was a top DSCC target, and recent post-primary polls have vindicated their interest in the race. Multiple polls have shown a very close battle, with some actually putting Hagan on top. This is before she really starts the general election battle. Dole has a sizable campaign stash, so she has to be given a slight edge at the moment. But that could change as the summer unfolds. Dole has shown signs that she is running scared. I should mention, however, that Kay Hagan would not be a particularly reliable party line vote - she is actually opposed to SCHIP expansion.
Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Amazing that the Maine race, considered early on to be at or near the top of the list of pickup opportunities, is now just 9th. That partially is a testament to Collins' ability to sell her moderate image despite a voting record to the contrary, but there are just so many other wonderful possibilities for Dems at the moment. Collins continues to hover just over 50% in polls, and this one will certainly tighten as November draws closer. If Iraq is still a major mobilizing issue in Maine, the solidly progressive Allen has a decent chance.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
There are two ways to look at this. One, Musgrove is kind of a schmuck. He would be rather infuriating as a Blue Dog senator, breaking with the party on many important issues. But on the other hand, he would be a Democratic Senator from deep red Mississippi. If you didn't hear, Democrat Travis Childers won a recent special election victory in Wicker's deep red former district, which is of course a fantastic sign. Wicker still has to be the favorite, but Obama coattails may just be enough to put Musgrove over the top.
Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Challenger: State Rep. & Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
While not moving the Texas race up to Leans R, this race has definitely picked up some momentum in recent weeks. Two polls in May had Noriega within five points of the odious Cornyn. I am an enthusiastic supporter of Noriega's; he would be one of the more exciting Democrats to have in the Senate and is rock solid on all the major issues; plus he can likely appeal to disaffected Republicans in West and South Texas. Noriega is actually taking two weeks off at the moment to complete his annual National Guard training; how can chickenhawk Cornyn possibly match up with that? If Noriega can raise some serious $ over the summer and/or the DSCC makes a financial committment, this race moves up the ranks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R) - upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Commerce Sec. Bruce Lunsford
I must admit I'm conflicted about this race. Same issue as Mississippi, really. Lunsford isn't so much a Blue Dog as just a classic pro-business "Republicrat". He's actually endorsed and donated to McConnell in the past. But then again, he may actually knock off the GOP Minority Leader. Revenge for Daschle in '04 would be pretty sweet, and polls have them running in a dead heat. Of course, McConnell has about $10 million to play with, or else a more competitive ranking would be deserved. Only time will tell.
Idaho (OPEN): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Nominee: Fmr Rep. Larry LaRocco
Republican Nominee: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
No real updates since the March version. LaRocco continues to rule and Risch continues to be a schmuck, but there hasn't been a poll of the matchup in a long time and no major stories have broken on either candidate. One potential issue lurks, however: Risch apparently is encouraging Kuwait to dump enormous amounts of radioactive waste in Idaho. I'm sure Idahoans will loooooove that.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 3 (Favored R) - 2 point upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Rep. Jim Slattery
Talk about your turnarounds! As of my last roundup, it seemed that Democrats would be unable to find a credible challenger to relatively unpopular Bush enabler Pat Roberts, former chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Then lobbyist and former Congressman Jim Slattery stepped up at the last minute. As lobbyists go, he seems to be okay and really gets it on financial regulation issues. He has only recently launched his official campaign, but a poll had him within just 12 with very low name recognition against the universally known Roberts (and Obama only down 9 to McCain!). Slattery has to prove he is willing to fight a nasty battle against a savvy politician likely to go hard negative, but if he has the drive and fundraising ability, he just may have a shot.
Note: I'd like to take a second and point out that Democrats are legitimately competitive in an astounding 14 seats. That makes the current ceiling 65 (with Lieberman) if everything breaks positively. Could we see a Constitutional Amendment or two pass in the next few years?
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
This race does have sleeper possibilities. Rice is an exciting young (meaning 32 years old) Harvard grad and popular state legislator from Oklahoma City. Inhofe is notorious for his staunch global warming denial. In addition, he very recently put out a campaign ad suggesting Iraq to be in Africa. If the stereotypes of Oklahoma as a state full of ignorant yokels are accurate, Inhofe is the perfect Senator for them. My co-worker and friend lives in Oklahoma, personally knows Andrew Rice and suggests he is light years too liberal to win a statewide election there.
Nebraska (OPEN): 2 (Probable R)
Democratic Nominee: Scott Kleeb
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Kleeb is a netroots favorite, but like Rice he is really young to be running for the Senate. Johanns is a top-tier candidate for the GOP and while Nebraska may actually be somewhat competitive on the presidential level, it's hard to see Kleeb making Johanns seriously sweat barring some sort of scandal (which is certainly a possibility with any prominent Republican these days).
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke
Tuke will have to run a stellar campaign and/or a bombshell scandal will have to be unearthed on the relatively well-regarded Alexander for this to become a top-tier race. But hey, anything's possible.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: TBD (nominee not known until August 5th)
There are four or five viable candidates for the Democratic nod. Although national Dems despise Chambliss for the way he viciously smeared war hero Max Cleland in '02, it would probably take Cleland himself to make the race close. Cleland's not running, leaving a bunch of 3rd-tier candidates in the mix. One guy, former state rep. and Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Martin, could make things slightly interesting, but he's polling about third in the primary.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was a top-tier challenger flirting with a run in State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but he declined in lieu of Ms. Figures. It's a shame, because Sparks was a very intriguing potential candidate. Figures, meanwhile, is African-American and therefore likely to lose big in Alabama along with Barack Obama. Sadly, it doesn't even matter how effective a campaigner she is.
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough
Barrasso lucked out by avoiding a matchup with Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal and any serious primary competition in a special election. The Dem bench in Wyoming beyond the centrist Freudenthal is virtually nonexistent, so both Senate seats are virtual locks.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Attorney Michael Cone
The biggest threat to Graham is in the GOP primary, from RNC member Buddy Witherspoon among something like eight other lesser-known candidates. Conservatives in SC seem very frustrated with Graham, but not enough to cost him his seat.
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran is an icon in Mississippi. He was thinking about retiring after losing his Appropriations Committee chairmanship as Dems took the Senate, but decided otherwise. A couple top-tier Dems decided to pass on a challenge. That's really all that matters here.
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Prof. Chris Rothfuss
Rothfuss is an interesting character, but that doesn't get him more than 30% in what may be the reddest state in the country. Hey, at least there's a Democratic challenger for every GOP-held seat, which is a pretty major accomplishment.
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 7 (Leans D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy, turncoat Democrat
Landrieu has done a terrific job consolidating her support early on and has proven that Kennedy will have to step things up a notch to defeat her. She has a huge money advantage and has led in every poll taken thus far, including a couple by double digits. It really says something that this, the only realistic GOP pickup opportunity, may be starting to slip away a full five months before election day. Of course, that could change quickly as Kennedy goes on the attack, but for now one has to give a definitive edge to the incumbent.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 9 (Probable D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
At this point I would be shocked if this race ended up in single digits. Of course anything can happen and another health issue for Sen. Johnson, who suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage only 18 months ago, could make things more interesting. Nevertheless, Dykstra does not seem to have the name recognition or fundraising prowess to give Johnson any sort of scare in the absence of unforeseen events.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Challenger: Lobbyist & Fmr Rep. Dick Zimmer
After a ton of flux in this race until yesterday, I thought about upgrading this to a 10. Rep. Rob Andrews decided to launch a quixotic primary challenge to Lautenberg and lost by over 30 points on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GOP barely avoided a major embarrassment by recruiting Dick Zimmer, an accomplished politician, into the race at the last minute. While he may be able to capitalize on an unforeseen event, Lautenberg is likely way too experienced and vetted for that to happen.
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk
After the three races above, the field just gets embarrassing for the GOP. This should be around a 20-point blowout, and it only gets worse moving down the list.
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jay Wolfe
Not really sure who this Wolfe guy is, but maybe some people will only look at their first names and get confused. Rockefeller is a household name in WV. Nothing to see here....
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Dr. Steve Sauerberg
Sauerberg seems to have some money and will at least run an active race. Nevertheless, nobody short of Michael Jordan could beat the very powerful Durbin. Another blowout.
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: Bob Kelleher
Wow, I'm really not sure what to make of this race now. Baucus has been pretty safe for some time, but Tuesday's GOP primary yielded a truly shocking nominee. Voters bypassed both of the leading candidates to pick the 85-year old retired attorney and activist Bob Kelleher. This race may actually turn out to be really fun; Kelleher once ran for Senate with the Green Party, and if he campaigns will probably be attacking Baucus from the left. He seems very, er, colorful on the surface (for comparison, imagine if Lyndon LaRouche won a major party Senate nomination), and may turn out to be the first Republican I've ever enjoyed following.
Oh, here's the official reaction from a leading progressive Montana blog:
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Christopher Reed
Apparently Reed winning his primary yesterday was also an upset. Nobody really knows who he is. I don't think Harkin's had a truly easy victory in his long Senate career, so I guess he's due for a cakewalk.
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Yet another huge embarrassment for the GOP. They had handpicked recent congressional nominee Jim Ogonowski to take on Kerry, and he had raised nearly a million dollars to this point. Well, the filing deadline was yesterday and guess what? The supposedly second-best NRSC recruit of the cycle didn't even qualify for the ballot. Truly pathetic. I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: NONE
Arkansas?! They couldn't find a live body who wanted to run for Senate in Arkansas?! Now this one clearly deserves a laugh. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE
The real election may be in early 2009, after Biden is appointed to be Obama's Sec of State. We shall see....
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE
Summary
Democratic pickups are bolded
10 (Definite D): AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, WV
9 (Probable D): NJ, SD, VA
8 (Favored D): CO, NM
7 (Leans D): LA, NH
6 (Barely D): NONE
5 (Barely R): AK, MN, OR
4 (Leans R): ME, MS-B, NC
3 (Favored R): ID, KS, KY, TX
2 (Probable R): NE, OK, TN
1 (Definite R): AL, GA, MS-A, SC, WY-A, WY-B
Methodology
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
The wonderful news for Democrats continues unabated, as quite a few races have been upgraded since the last update in March with a mere one looking better for the GOP. Getting to sixty seats is now looking distinctly within the realm of possibility, although Dems would have to knock off some tough incumbents to get there. As a baseline, we would be looking at something around 55-58 (including Lieberman) if the elections were today; that would mean a pickup of 4-7 seats.
To the rankings! As always, 1 means Definite R while 10 means Definite D
Races are ordered by chance of flipping. If "upgrade" is listed, the race got better for the Democrats.
Oh, this time Republican seats go first, because the D-held seats are almost all foregone conclusions at this point.
See the bottom of the post for a summary and the methodology behind my number rankings.
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 9 (Probable D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
To put it simply, Virginians know Warner as the guy who cleaned up the mess that Gilmore made. Gilmore barely got the nomination Tuesday over a nobody state delegate. There's a good chance Warner will end up giving a hefty chunk of his campaign cash to the DSCC to fund other, closer contests.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Nominee: Rep. Steve Pearce
The conservative Pearce edged out faux-moderate Heather Wilson (of nipplegate fame) for the nomination. It matters little. A slew of polls have had Udall beating both by very comfortable margins. It may tighten a little, but right now it's hard to imagine Pearce winning.
Colorado (OPEN): 8 (Leans D) - 2 point upgrade
Democratic Nominee: Rep. Mark Udall (Tom's brother)
Republican Nominee: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
This contest was shaping up to be a hard-fought nailbiter. That was before the torrent of corruption revelations began to hit Schaffer. The worst one: while in congress he went on a Jack Abramoff-sponsored trip to the Mariana Islands to "investigate" sweatshop conditions, and of course reported everything to be hunky-dory. Then, in Congress he once tried to say the U.S. should emulate its workplace regulations after those of the Marianas, known as one of the most cruel places for workers in the Western Hemisphere. In other words he's a transparent Grade A Dirtbag. To make matters worse, his campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, handled Macaca Allen's implosion in 2006, so you know he can't handle PR crises particularly well. All I'm saying is, get out the popcorn, this should be entertaining to watch.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Nominee: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Sununu is a Bush toady representing a state that doesn't take well to toadies, and especially not the Iraq-enabling kind. Shaheen remains pretty popular and despite a few years out of the state, still has very deep roots in the NH political community. Polls have her consistently ahead by around 10 points and that probably will not change much as both have very high name ID. If McCain can sell his case on Iraq and wins the state, Sununu has a shot. Otherwise, stick a fork in him.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Boy, Alaska Republicans are a mess of corruption right now. Stevens, as the king of Alaska politics, heads the list of course with his notorious Bridge to Nowhere and much much more. Despite the good will Stevens has generated over the years, he is starting to be seen as a black eye for the state by its residents (those who pay attention, anyway). Begich, the son of beloved former congressman Nick Begich, is also well-regarded and already governs a large chunk of Alaska's population so is widely known. This matchup should be really fascinating and I expect it to resemble many of the '06 congressional campaigns. Gonna be a close one.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R) - downgrade
Challenger: Al Franken
Yikes! After I gushed about Franken in the last roundup, a major story came to light about how he owed back taxes in 17 states. The story may have been blown a little out of proportion, but it seems like it stuck as a scandal and may have opened a door for Coleman to build a narrative of Franken as dishonest and flippant. Even though the story broke a month ago or more, it is still too early to tell whether Franken can weather the storm. All we know is, there will be more storms to come; Coleman is very sleazy (yeah, even among senators) and will throw the kitchen sink at his opponent. This race may be the ugliest and nastiest one of the whole cycle, and yes that includes the presidential contest. Now that we see some chinks in Franken's armor, all bets are off.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 5 (Barely R) - upgrade
Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
The more I see of Merkley, the more I like him. This guy is just a natural leader. He got past the first step a couple weeks ago by fighting off a spirited primary challenge from activist Steve Novick, who would've made a solid albeit different candidate himself. Merkley isn't the most fiery guy out there, but he's a true progressive with a track record of getting things done. I'm guessing the election will end up as a referendum on whether Smith is actually the principled moderate that he tries to come across as. At the moment, I'm cautiously optimistic, but at the moment the incumbent has to remain a slight favorite. Oh, recent polls have the contest locked in a statistical tie.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
We already knew Liddy Dole was a top DSCC target, and recent post-primary polls have vindicated their interest in the race. Multiple polls have shown a very close battle, with some actually putting Hagan on top. This is before she really starts the general election battle. Dole has a sizable campaign stash, so she has to be given a slight edge at the moment. But that could change as the summer unfolds. Dole has shown signs that she is running scared. I should mention, however, that Kay Hagan would not be a particularly reliable party line vote - she is actually opposed to SCHIP expansion.
Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Amazing that the Maine race, considered early on to be at or near the top of the list of pickup opportunities, is now just 9th. That partially is a testament to Collins' ability to sell her moderate image despite a voting record to the contrary, but there are just so many other wonderful possibilities for Dems at the moment. Collins continues to hover just over 50% in polls, and this one will certainly tighten as November draws closer. If Iraq is still a major mobilizing issue in Maine, the solidly progressive Allen has a decent chance.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R) - upgrade
Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
There are two ways to look at this. One, Musgrove is kind of a schmuck. He would be rather infuriating as a Blue Dog senator, breaking with the party on many important issues. But on the other hand, he would be a Democratic Senator from deep red Mississippi. If you didn't hear, Democrat Travis Childers won a recent special election victory in Wicker's deep red former district, which is of course a fantastic sign. Wicker still has to be the favorite, but Obama coattails may just be enough to put Musgrove over the top.
Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Challenger: State Rep. & Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
While not moving the Texas race up to Leans R, this race has definitely picked up some momentum in recent weeks. Two polls in May had Noriega within five points of the odious Cornyn. I am an enthusiastic supporter of Noriega's; he would be one of the more exciting Democrats to have in the Senate and is rock solid on all the major issues; plus he can likely appeal to disaffected Republicans in West and South Texas. Noriega is actually taking two weeks off at the moment to complete his annual National Guard training; how can chickenhawk Cornyn possibly match up with that? If Noriega can raise some serious $ over the summer and/or the DSCC makes a financial committment, this race moves up the ranks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R) - upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Commerce Sec. Bruce Lunsford
I must admit I'm conflicted about this race. Same issue as Mississippi, really. Lunsford isn't so much a Blue Dog as just a classic pro-business "Republicrat". He's actually endorsed and donated to McConnell in the past. But then again, he may actually knock off the GOP Minority Leader. Revenge for Daschle in '04 would be pretty sweet, and polls have them running in a dead heat. Of course, McConnell has about $10 million to play with, or else a more competitive ranking would be deserved. Only time will tell.
Idaho (OPEN): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Nominee: Fmr Rep. Larry LaRocco
Republican Nominee: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
No real updates since the March version. LaRocco continues to rule and Risch continues to be a schmuck, but there hasn't been a poll of the matchup in a long time and no major stories have broken on either candidate. One potential issue lurks, however: Risch apparently is encouraging Kuwait to dump enormous amounts of radioactive waste in Idaho. I'm sure Idahoans will loooooove that.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 3 (Favored R) - 2 point upgrade
Challenger: Fmr Rep. Jim Slattery
Talk about your turnarounds! As of my last roundup, it seemed that Democrats would be unable to find a credible challenger to relatively unpopular Bush enabler Pat Roberts, former chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Then lobbyist and former Congressman Jim Slattery stepped up at the last minute. As lobbyists go, he seems to be okay and really gets it on financial regulation issues. He has only recently launched his official campaign, but a poll had him within just 12 with very low name recognition against the universally known Roberts (and Obama only down 9 to McCain!). Slattery has to prove he is willing to fight a nasty battle against a savvy politician likely to go hard negative, but if he has the drive and fundraising ability, he just may have a shot.
Note: I'd like to take a second and point out that Democrats are legitimately competitive in an astounding 14 seats. That makes the current ceiling 65 (with Lieberman) if everything breaks positively. Could we see a Constitutional Amendment or two pass in the next few years?
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
This race does have sleeper possibilities. Rice is an exciting young (meaning 32 years old) Harvard grad and popular state legislator from Oklahoma City. Inhofe is notorious for his staunch global warming denial. In addition, he very recently put out a campaign ad suggesting Iraq to be in Africa. If the stereotypes of Oklahoma as a state full of ignorant yokels are accurate, Inhofe is the perfect Senator for them. My co-worker and friend lives in Oklahoma, personally knows Andrew Rice and suggests he is light years too liberal to win a statewide election there.
Nebraska (OPEN): 2 (Probable R)
Democratic Nominee: Scott Kleeb
Republican Nominee: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Kleeb is a netroots favorite, but like Rice he is really young to be running for the Senate. Johanns is a top-tier candidate for the GOP and while Nebraska may actually be somewhat competitive on the presidential level, it's hard to see Kleeb making Johanns seriously sweat barring some sort of scandal (which is certainly a possibility with any prominent Republican these days).
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke
Tuke will have to run a stellar campaign and/or a bombshell scandal will have to be unearthed on the relatively well-regarded Alexander for this to become a top-tier race. But hey, anything's possible.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: TBD (nominee not known until August 5th)
There are four or five viable candidates for the Democratic nod. Although national Dems despise Chambliss for the way he viciously smeared war hero Max Cleland in '02, it would probably take Cleland himself to make the race close. Cleland's not running, leaving a bunch of 3rd-tier candidates in the mix. One guy, former state rep. and Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Martin, could make things slightly interesting, but he's polling about third in the primary.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was a top-tier challenger flirting with a run in State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but he declined in lieu of Ms. Figures. It's a shame, because Sparks was a very intriguing potential candidate. Figures, meanwhile, is African-American and therefore likely to lose big in Alabama along with Barack Obama. Sadly, it doesn't even matter how effective a campaigner she is.
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough
Barrasso lucked out by avoiding a matchup with Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal and any serious primary competition in a special election. The Dem bench in Wyoming beyond the centrist Freudenthal is virtually nonexistent, so both Senate seats are virtual locks.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Attorney Michael Cone
The biggest threat to Graham is in the GOP primary, from RNC member Buddy Witherspoon among something like eight other lesser-known candidates. Conservatives in SC seem very frustrated with Graham, but not enough to cost him his seat.
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Fmr State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran is an icon in Mississippi. He was thinking about retiring after losing his Appropriations Committee chairmanship as Dems took the Senate, but decided otherwise. A couple top-tier Dems decided to pass on a challenge. That's really all that matters here.
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Challenger: Prof. Chris Rothfuss
Rothfuss is an interesting character, but that doesn't get him more than 30% in what may be the reddest state in the country. Hey, at least there's a Democratic challenger for every GOP-held seat, which is a pretty major accomplishment.
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 7 (Leans D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy, turncoat Democrat
Landrieu has done a terrific job consolidating her support early on and has proven that Kennedy will have to step things up a notch to defeat her. She has a huge money advantage and has led in every poll taken thus far, including a couple by double digits. It really says something that this, the only realistic GOP pickup opportunity, may be starting to slip away a full five months before election day. Of course, that could change quickly as Kennedy goes on the attack, but for now one has to give a definitive edge to the incumbent.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 9 (Probable D) - upgrade
Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
At this point I would be shocked if this race ended up in single digits. Of course anything can happen and another health issue for Sen. Johnson, who suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage only 18 months ago, could make things more interesting. Nevertheless, Dykstra does not seem to have the name recognition or fundraising prowess to give Johnson any sort of scare in the absence of unforeseen events.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Challenger: Lobbyist & Fmr Rep. Dick Zimmer
After a ton of flux in this race until yesterday, I thought about upgrading this to a 10. Rep. Rob Andrews decided to launch a quixotic primary challenge to Lautenberg and lost by over 30 points on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GOP barely avoided a major embarrassment by recruiting Dick Zimmer, an accomplished politician, into the race at the last minute. While he may be able to capitalize on an unforeseen event, Lautenberg is likely way too experienced and vetted for that to happen.
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk
After the three races above, the field just gets embarrassing for the GOP. This should be around a 20-point blowout, and it only gets worse moving down the list.
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jay Wolfe
Not really sure who this Wolfe guy is, but maybe some people will only look at their first names and get confused. Rockefeller is a household name in WV. Nothing to see here....
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Dr. Steve Sauerberg
Sauerberg seems to have some money and will at least run an active race. Nevertheless, nobody short of Michael Jordan could beat the very powerful Durbin. Another blowout.
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: Bob Kelleher
Wow, I'm really not sure what to make of this race now. Baucus has been pretty safe for some time, but Tuesday's GOP primary yielded a truly shocking nominee. Voters bypassed both of the leading candidates to pick the 85-year old retired attorney and activist Bob Kelleher. This race may actually turn out to be really fun; Kelleher once ran for Senate with the Green Party, and if he campaigns will probably be attacking Baucus from the left. He seems very, er, colorful on the surface (for comparison, imagine if Lyndon LaRouche won a major party Senate nomination), and may turn out to be the first Republican I've ever enjoyed following.
Oh, here's the official reaction from a leading progressive Montana blog:
OMG!!!!! Bob Kelleher. OMG!!!!!!It's worth scrolling down through the comments of the linked post if you want a laugh.
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Christopher Reed
Apparently Reed winning his primary yesterday was also an upset. Nobody really knows who he is. I don't think Harkin's had a truly easy victory in his long Senate career, so I guess he's due for a cakewalk.
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Yet another huge embarrassment for the GOP. They had handpicked recent congressional nominee Jim Ogonowski to take on Kerry, and he had raised nearly a million dollars to this point. Well, the filing deadline was yesterday and guess what? The supposedly second-best NRSC recruit of the cycle didn't even qualify for the ballot. Truly pathetic. I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Challenger: NONE
Arkansas?! They couldn't find a live body who wanted to run for Senate in Arkansas?! Now this one clearly deserves a laugh. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE
The real election may be in early 2009, after Biden is appointed to be Obama's Sec of State. We shall see....
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Challenger: NONE
Summary
Democratic pickups are bolded
10 (Definite D): AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, WV
9 (Probable D): NJ, SD, VA
8 (Favored D): CO, NM
7 (Leans D): LA, NH
6 (Barely D): NONE
5 (Barely R): AK, MN, OR
4 (Leans R): ME, MS-B, NC
3 (Favored R): ID, KS, KY, TX
2 (Probable R): NE, OK, TN
1 (Definite R): AL, GA, MS-A, SC, WY-A, WY-B
Methodology
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
Saturday, March 1, 2008
March Senate Rankings and race updates
With all the hubbub about the presidential contest, I'd like to point out that the shape of Congress will determine how effective the next president will be. Dems are just about guaranteed to keep control of both chambers, but the question is whether or not they will have a working majority, especially in the Senate where a vigilant minority can stop legislation in its tracks. Thus it is worth tracking the Senate landscape. Things have crystallized in a few races, but not much has changed on the overall board. The story is still an abject failure of Republican leadership to recruit top-tier candidates, while Democrats have done moderately well on that front. It also seems many of the Dem challengers could benefit from an electorate fed up with the GOP as well as Obama's potential coattails. Here are the updated rankings for the 2008 Senate races.
Other places to obtain info about the 2008 Senate picture:
http://www.senateguru.com/
Wikipedia entry on the elections
CQPolitics ratings page
Chris Cilizza's The Fix top ten senate races
The rankings this time will still be arranged by party, but this time the order will be based on the chance of flipping parties.
Current breakdown: 49D, 49R, 2I
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challenger: State Treasurer John Kennedy
A few months ago, Karl Rove convinced Kennedy to switch parties for this race. It takes a special kind of stupid to switch to this GOP at a time when they're in free fall. Nevertheless he is a top-tier candidate and this will be by far the toughest seat for Dems to hold. I think Landrieu will ultimately win, mostly because she will outspend Kennedy, perhaps significantly so including help from the national parties. Much hinges on how effectively Kennedy can campaign on a message of reform.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 8 (Favored D)
Key Challenger: ex-Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby (considering), ???
Boy, has this been an embarrassment for the GOP Senate campaign committee (NRSC). Kirby is their eleventh choice, after the first ten declined to run. Kirby has been defeated easily in two past statewide elections, and he owned a business that scraped skin off cadavers for elective surgery (eg penis enlargements). I REALLY hope he does decide to run, he will make for great comedic material. A recent poll has Sen. Johnson beating him 70-19, so, yeah. If nobody else steps up soon Johnson will run away with a race in which he was previously in serious jeopardy.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challengers: Real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, others
Amazingly, this is the only other state with a legitimate challenger and a somewhat vulnerable incumbent. That said, Estabrook has never run for political office and Dirty Jerz has showed no signs of supporting a Republican at the national level. Lautenberg's approval ratings are pretty weak, somewhere in the mid-40s, but that's actually better than just about every other politician in Jersey.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: US Attorney Chuck Banks (considering)
Via Wikipedia -
Montana (Max Baucus): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: none of note
As most people who follow politics closely know by now, Montana is becoming a purplish-blue state. Baucus was a popular senator even when the state was deep red, so there is no reason to believe he'd be in any trouble now. Yet again, no legitimate challenger has emerged for the GOP.
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challengers: TBD
Harkin has proven to be a consistently solid progressive voice during his years in the senate, and is pretty popular in IA (approval ratings around 58%). A couple GOP congressmen have expressed vague interest in a run, but nothing definitive is on the rumor mill at the moment. Even if one were to step up, they would be very unlikely to keep Harkin below 53%.
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Levin, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. It is not surprising that he has not drawn a significant challenge. A couple state Reps. will vie for the right to get clobbered in November.
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Needless to say, Rockefeller is a pretty esteemed name in WV. He is expected to win easily.
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Jim Ogonowski
Republicans think Iraq vet Ogonowski could be a formidable candidate. He did come close in a recent special congressional election, but against a very weak Democrat in a relatively conservative district. I'm hoping the NRSC backs up their words and wastes some money in the expensive Boston media market.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Steve Sauerberg, MD
Majority Whip Durbin should win handily this November. At least give the GOP credit for fielding a respectable candidate with personal wealth to put into the race.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
After Biden dropped his presidential bid, he settled back to the Senate knowing he will be there as long as he wants. Nothing to see here.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
Reed is a very popular senator in probably the bluest state in the country. You do the math.
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN - John Warner): 9 (Probable D)
Key Democrat: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Key Republican: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
It looks like a Warner will remain in this seat. Mark Warner remains incredibly popular while Gilmore, well, isn't. The VA-GOP made a big mistake in leaning towards the more conservative Gilmore over moderate Rep. Tom Davis, who is now retiring. Meanwhile, Warner would be the odds-on favorite to be Obama's running mate if he weren't a virtual shoo-in for this seat.
New Mexico (OPEN - Pete Domenici): 8 (Favored D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Udall
Key Republicans: Reps. Heather Wilson, Steve Pearce
This is a wild one; all three of NM's sitting congresspeople are in this race. Sen. Domenici was an icon in the state but retired due to declining mental health and involvement in the US Attorney scandal, which also hurt Heather Wilson. Udall has a clear path to the nomination, while Wilson and Pearce are locked in an ugly primary battle. Polls have Udall consistently beating either one by double digits. Things could change, but at this point Udall seems relatively safe.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
This is a rematch of the 2002 contest, where Sununu won narrowly. He is facing a much different political environment this time around, and his unwavering support for the Iraq War will hurt him badly in a fiercely anti-war state. Shaheen is a very savvy politician and should win rather comfortably unless somehow McCain wins the state and delivers Independent voters to Sununu in droves.
Colorado (OPEN - Wayne Allard): 6 (Barely D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall
Key Republican: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Udall seemed to have an early lead, but recent polls have showed a tight race. Schaffer might be a little too conservative for what is now considered a swing state, and Udall is quite popular. As well, the financial states of the national parties and the potential for Obama coattails suggest Udall is in a good situation here.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challengers: Al Franken, Mike Ciresi
I am very pleased to say Franken is gaining momentum and becoming more and more formidable as the race progresses. He has shown he can be taken seriously and is building an effective grassroots operation. The state party has been gradually lining up behind him. A recent string of polls has him beating Coleman in a head-to-head matchup, and it seems he is pulling away from Ciresi in the primary race. However, Coleman is an extremely talented politician and will definitely not go down without an ugly fight. Whatever happens, this will be one of the highest-profile races of 2008.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Key Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Stevens is the elder statesman of the Senate GOP caucus, and at 85 he has filed to run for re-election. He is also incredibly arrogant and openly corrupt, digging in his heels to secure the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" and getting caught in a major bribery scandal. Voters in Alaska are starting to turn on him, and he has drawn a very tough challenger in the popular mayor Mark Begich, who already has solid name recognition statewide and just announced his long-rumored candidacy. This used to be a darkhorse race, but now it is simply a top-tier one. Alaska could undergo a blue tidal wave in 2008.
Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
This is one of the two key bellwether races of the 2008 cycle. If Allen defeats Collins, the Democrats will come very close to, and perhaps reach, the magical 60-seat threshold. Allen is a top-tier challenger, but Collins has a very moderate image and is popular. Then again, so was Lincoln Chafee. If Allen can tie Collins to Bush and make the election a referendum on the Iraq war (easier with McCain on the presidential ticket), he can pull it off.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challengers: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, activist Steve Novick
See above. This is the other key bellwether race. Merkley will likely be the Democratic nominee and give Smith a run for his money if he can challenge the incumbent's moderate image. In this case, Merkley's hot button issues will be more focused on economic and environmental policy than the Iraq war, as ol' Gordo has been a key ally of polluters and mining/logging interests. Time will tell on this one, and it will not fully heat up until the Dem primary.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker - formerly Trent Lott): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
If this wasn't a deeply Republican state, the race would be labeled at least a toss-up. Musgrove has much higher name recognition than Wicker and remains somewhat popular. Yet a controversy over the special election date has yielded a date the same as the general election. Things are still in flux and much may depend on Wicker's performance as a first-year senator.
Idaho (OPEN - Larry Craig): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: Former Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republican: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, many challenger candidates
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Idaho! Well, happenings in a Minnesota airport bathroom changed all that. With Larry "wide stance" Craig retiring, Risch has become the frontrunner in a wild GOP primary. Larry LaRocco was already in the race, and has been campaigning fiercely for a year now. He has been championing a libertarian populist message similar to the kind that worked so well for Brian Schweitzer in Montana. Meanwhile, Risch's naked personal ambition has alienated a lot of people within the ID GOP. Many commentators have this as an easy Risch win, but don't be surprised if it turns out to be close. With the x-factor of Obama coattails thrown in, this could turn out to be a major sleeper race of 2008.
Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: State Rep. Rick Noriega
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Texas! However, Cornyn is one of the least popular sitting senators with approval ratings in the low 40s, and can be tied to Bush more closely than almost any other person in Congress. Noriega, an Iraq war vet, is well-situated to attack Cornyn's chickenhawk foreign policy and has proven himself to handle attacks well. Last month, when the Texas GOP publicly demanded that Noriega release his military service records to them (presumably for Swiftboating material), he responded as such:
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challengers: State Sen. Kay Hagan, Businessman Jim Neal
The DSCC has made clear that they consider Dole a vulnerable candidate, and while neither of the leading candidates for the Dem nomination are of the top-tier variety, either could still keep it close. The primary race seems to have an insider-outsider dynamic, with Hagan representing the party insiders and Neal more of the activist variety. It remains to be seen who emerges from the primary contest, so a more clear analysis of the race should develop once there is a nominee. Either way, Dole will likely have a sizable money advantage, so she has to be the clear favorite at this point.
Nebraska (OPEN - Chuck Hagel): 2 (Probable R)
Key Democrats: Scott Kleeb, Businessman Tony Raimondo
Key Republican: Fmr Gov. & Sec. of Agriculture Mike Johanns
This race showed a flash of top-tier potential at one point; right after Hagel announced his retirement, Former Gov. Bob Kerrey seriously considered entering the race and would have been an early favorite. However, he decided against a run, as did popular Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. Yet many party activists view Kleeb as a rising star and were excited when he recently decided to jump in. His primary opposition, Raimondo, is basically a wealthy Republican who decided he'd have a better shot to win as a Democrat. Ugh. Methinks Kleeb could make it somewhat close if he gets out of the primary, he's a fiery young outsider who seems to have a finger on the pulse of the Cornhusker State, whereas Johanns has spent recent years engaged in Beltway politics. For now, Johanns is a heavy favorite.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Inhofe is the prime exemplar of the Republican head-in-the-sand approach to climate change. He is somewhat of a joke, dumb as a rock and has approval ratings under 50%. The 32-year-old Andrew Rice is definitely a rising star in the state and has consolidated support among party leaders and national activist groups. If he can capitalize on the backlash against two certifiably crazy Sooner senators and gets some support from the national party, it could become very interesting. Nevertheless, it is Oklahoma so Inhofe will likely retain his seat.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challengers: Businessmen Bruce Lunsford, Greg Fischer
In an otherwise successful year for the DSCC, Kentucky has been a major recruiting disappointment. A few strong challengers declined to run, even when polling had them competitive with the Senate Minority Leader. Instead, KY Dems get to choose between a couple of businessmen, and the frontrunner Lunsford has personal wealth but a truckload of baggage. National Dems will invest moderately in the race but the ruthless tactician McConnell will likely spend over $10 million to defend his seat, and barring some sort of scandal it is hard to see how he loses.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke (considering)
After the top Dem choice, Mike McWherter, declined a run, it looked like Alexander might go without a serious challenge in his first re-election bid. He is also the #3 ranking member in the Senate GOP caucus and appears to be a formidable candidate. But it looks like Dem party insider Bob Tuke will run for the seat. We don't know what kind of candidate Tuke will be, but chances are Alexander wins easily.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was hope of a serious challenge to Sessions in state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but Sparks decided to avoid a bruising primary fight with Figures and bowed out. Figures is a smart campaigner and solid Democrat, but unfortunately cannot win a statewide election as an African-American progressive woman. She may hold Sessions below 60%, however, which positions this seat as the least guaranteed among the "sure thing" list.
Wyoming-B (John Barasso): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough, Atty Nick Carter (considering)
Barasso was appointed last year by Gov. Dave Freudenthal after Craig Thomas passed away, and he has not drawn significant opposition for November's special election. At least he will have some Dem opposition. The only chance this gets interesting is if Freudenthal decides to run, which is extremely unlikely.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: none of note
Roberts is not particularly popular with approval ratings hanging in the upper 40s, but no viable Democrat has stepped to to challenge him. It looks like he will coast to re-election.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Vernon Jones, Dale Cardwell, Josh Lanier
Democrats truly despise Chambliss for the loathsome smears he launched against former Sen. Max Cleland last time around, questioning the patriotism of a Vietnam Vet and triple amputee. However, Georgia is one of the few states still trending towards the GOP and no top-tier or even second-tier challenger has emerged. Whomever emerges from the Dem primary, expect Chambliss to win by a 2:1 margin.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Attorney Michael Cone, many angry Republicans
Graham is in no danger whatsoever of being defeated by a Democrat. He may be challenged from the right, however, as he has a horde of primary opponents including RNC member Buddy Witherspoon. He should be fine, although it'll be fun to watch the fireworks attacking Graham for not being crazy enough.
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Former State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran, the Appropriations Committee Ranking Member and former Chair and a long-time Senate veteran, will coast to another easy victory.
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: none
Enzi, unless he unexpectedly retires, will likely go unopposed in his run for re-election.
Whew! So there you have it. The totals:
(Republican seats bolded)
Definite Dem: DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, RI, WV
Probable Dem: AR, MT, NJ, VA
Favored Dem: NM, SD
Leans Dem: NH
Barely Dem: CO, LA, MN
Barely GOP: AK
Leans GOP: ME, OR
Favored GOP: ID, MS, NC, TX
Probable GOP: KY, NE, OK, TN
Definite GOP: AL, GA, KS, MS, SC, WY, WY
Prediction: 7 Dem Pickups and Lieberman caucuses with Republicans.
Final result: 56D, 42R, 2I
Other places to obtain info about the 2008 Senate picture:
http://www.senateguru.com/
Wikipedia entry on the elections
CQPolitics ratings page
Chris Cilizza's The Fix top ten senate races
The rankings this time will still be arranged by party, but this time the order will be based on the chance of flipping parties.
Current breakdown: 49D, 49R, 2I
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challenger: State Treasurer John Kennedy
A few months ago, Karl Rove convinced Kennedy to switch parties for this race. It takes a special kind of stupid to switch to this GOP at a time when they're in free fall. Nevertheless he is a top-tier candidate and this will be by far the toughest seat for Dems to hold. I think Landrieu will ultimately win, mostly because she will outspend Kennedy, perhaps significantly so including help from the national parties. Much hinges on how effectively Kennedy can campaign on a message of reform.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 8 (Favored D)
Key Challenger: ex-Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby (considering), ???
Boy, has this been an embarrassment for the GOP Senate campaign committee (NRSC). Kirby is their eleventh choice, after the first ten declined to run. Kirby has been defeated easily in two past statewide elections, and he owned a business that scraped skin off cadavers for elective surgery (eg penis enlargements). I REALLY hope he does decide to run, he will make for great comedic material. A recent poll has Sen. Johnson beating him 70-19, so, yeah. If nobody else steps up soon Johnson will run away with a race in which he was previously in serious jeopardy.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challengers: Real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, others
Amazingly, this is the only other state with a legitimate challenger and a somewhat vulnerable incumbent. That said, Estabrook has never run for political office and Dirty Jerz has showed no signs of supporting a Republican at the national level. Lautenberg's approval ratings are pretty weak, somewhere in the mid-40s, but that's actually better than just about every other politician in Jersey.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: US Attorney Chuck Banks (considering)
Via Wikipedia -
Mike Huckabee ruled out a run on February 23, 2008, saying, "It's more likely I'll dye my hair green, get a bunch of tattoos and go on tour with Amy Winehouse."HAHA. Considering he was basically their only chance, it looks like smooth sailing for the savvy Pryor.
Montana (Max Baucus): 9 (Probable D)
Key Challenger: none of note
As most people who follow politics closely know by now, Montana is becoming a purplish-blue state. Baucus was a popular senator even when the state was deep red, so there is no reason to believe he'd be in any trouble now. Yet again, no legitimate challenger has emerged for the GOP.
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challengers: TBD
Harkin has proven to be a consistently solid progressive voice during his years in the senate, and is pretty popular in IA (approval ratings around 58%). A couple GOP congressmen have expressed vague interest in a run, but nothing definitive is on the rumor mill at the moment. Even if one were to step up, they would be very unlikely to keep Harkin below 53%.
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Levin, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. It is not surprising that he has not drawn a significant challenge. A couple state Reps. will vie for the right to get clobbered in November.
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none of note
Needless to say, Rockefeller is a pretty esteemed name in WV. He is expected to win easily.
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Jim Ogonowski
Republicans think Iraq vet Ogonowski could be a formidable candidate. He did come close in a recent special congressional election, but against a very weak Democrat in a relatively conservative district. I'm hoping the NRSC backs up their words and wastes some money in the expensive Boston media market.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: Steve Sauerberg, MD
Majority Whip Durbin should win handily this November. At least give the GOP credit for fielding a respectable candidate with personal wealth to put into the race.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
After Biden dropped his presidential bid, he settled back to the Senate knowing he will be there as long as he wants. Nothing to see here.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Key Challenger: none
Reed is a very popular senator in probably the bluest state in the country. You do the math.
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN - John Warner): 9 (Probable D)
Key Democrat: Former Gov. Mark Warner
Key Republican: Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
It looks like a Warner will remain in this seat. Mark Warner remains incredibly popular while Gilmore, well, isn't. The VA-GOP made a big mistake in leaning towards the more conservative Gilmore over moderate Rep. Tom Davis, who is now retiring. Meanwhile, Warner would be the odds-on favorite to be Obama's running mate if he weren't a virtual shoo-in for this seat.
New Mexico (OPEN - Pete Domenici): 8 (Favored D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Tom Udall
Key Republicans: Reps. Heather Wilson, Steve Pearce
This is a wild one; all three of NM's sitting congresspeople are in this race. Sen. Domenici was an icon in the state but retired due to declining mental health and involvement in the US Attorney scandal, which also hurt Heather Wilson. Udall has a clear path to the nomination, while Wilson and Pearce are locked in an ugly primary battle. Polls have Udall consistently beating either one by double digits. Things could change, but at this point Udall seems relatively safe.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
This is a rematch of the 2002 contest, where Sununu won narrowly. He is facing a much different political environment this time around, and his unwavering support for the Iraq War will hurt him badly in a fiercely anti-war state. Shaheen is a very savvy politician and should win rather comfortably unless somehow McCain wins the state and delivers Independent voters to Sununu in droves.
Colorado (OPEN - Wayne Allard): 6 (Barely D)
Key Democrat: Rep. Mark Udall
Key Republican: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Udall seemed to have an early lead, but recent polls have showed a tight race. Schaffer might be a little too conservative for what is now considered a swing state, and Udall is quite popular. As well, the financial states of the national parties and the potential for Obama coattails suggest Udall is in a good situation here.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 6 (Barely D)
Key Challengers: Al Franken, Mike Ciresi
I am very pleased to say Franken is gaining momentum and becoming more and more formidable as the race progresses. He has shown he can be taken seriously and is building an effective grassroots operation. The state party has been gradually lining up behind him. A recent string of polls has him beating Coleman in a head-to-head matchup, and it seems he is pulling away from Ciresi in the primary race. However, Coleman is an extremely talented politician and will definitely not go down without an ugly fight. Whatever happens, this will be one of the highest-profile races of 2008.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 5 (Barely R)
Key Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Stevens is the elder statesman of the Senate GOP caucus, and at 85 he has filed to run for re-election. He is also incredibly arrogant and openly corrupt, digging in his heels to secure the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" and getting caught in a major bribery scandal. Voters in Alaska are starting to turn on him, and he has drawn a very tough challenger in the popular mayor Mark Begich, who already has solid name recognition statewide and just announced his long-rumored candidacy. This used to be a darkhorse race, but now it is simply a top-tier one. Alaska could undergo a blue tidal wave in 2008.
Maine (Susan Collins): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
This is one of the two key bellwether races of the 2008 cycle. If Allen defeats Collins, the Democrats will come very close to, and perhaps reach, the magical 60-seat threshold. Allen is a top-tier challenger, but Collins has a very moderate image and is popular. Then again, so was Lincoln Chafee. If Allen can tie Collins to Bush and make the election a referendum on the Iraq war (easier with McCain on the presidential ticket), he can pull it off.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 4 (Leans R)
Key Challengers: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, activist Steve Novick
See above. This is the other key bellwether race. Merkley will likely be the Democratic nominee and give Smith a run for his money if he can challenge the incumbent's moderate image. In this case, Merkley's hot button issues will be more focused on economic and environmental policy than the Iraq war, as ol' Gordo has been a key ally of polluters and mining/logging interests. Time will tell on this one, and it will not fully heat up until the Dem primary.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker - formerly Trent Lott): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
If this wasn't a deeply Republican state, the race would be labeled at least a toss-up. Musgrove has much higher name recognition than Wicker and remains somewhat popular. Yet a controversy over the special election date has yielded a date the same as the general election. Things are still in flux and much may depend on Wicker's performance as a first-year senator.
Idaho (OPEN - Larry Craig): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: Former Rep. Larry LaRocco
Key Republican: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, many challenger candidates
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Idaho! Well, happenings in a Minnesota airport bathroom changed all that. With Larry "wide stance" Craig retiring, Risch has become the frontrunner in a wild GOP primary. Larry LaRocco was already in the race, and has been campaigning fiercely for a year now. He has been championing a libertarian populist message similar to the kind that worked so well for Brian Schweitzer in Montana. Meanwhile, Risch's naked personal ambition has alienated a lot of people within the ID GOP. Many commentators have this as an easy Risch win, but don't be surprised if it turns out to be close. With the x-factor of Obama coattails thrown in, this could turn out to be a major sleeper race of 2008.
Texas (John Cornyn): 3 (Favored R)
Key Democrat: State Rep. Rick Noriega
Democrats shouldn't have any chance here, right? I mean, it's freakin' Texas! However, Cornyn is one of the least popular sitting senators with approval ratings in the low 40s, and can be tied to Bush more closely than almost any other person in Congress. Noriega, an Iraq war vet, is well-situated to attack Cornyn's chickenhawk foreign policy and has proven himself to handle attacks well. Last month, when the Texas GOP publicly demanded that Noriega release his military service records to them (presumably for Swiftboating material), he responded as such:
The Republican Party of Texas, and by extension, Senator John Cornyn, has requested that I release my military records to them. I am astounded and outraged at the implications of this request. Over the past few years, some Republicans have conducted the most dishonest and disreputable attacks on veterans that our nation has ever seen.Then he released his records to the public to show the contrast with Sen. Chickenhawk. This episode shows that this should be a very fun race to watch, and has great sleeper potential.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 3 (Favored R)
Key Challengers: State Sen. Kay Hagan, Businessman Jim Neal
The DSCC has made clear that they consider Dole a vulnerable candidate, and while neither of the leading candidates for the Dem nomination are of the top-tier variety, either could still keep it close. The primary race seems to have an insider-outsider dynamic, with Hagan representing the party insiders and Neal more of the activist variety. It remains to be seen who emerges from the primary contest, so a more clear analysis of the race should develop once there is a nominee. Either way, Dole will likely have a sizable money advantage, so she has to be the clear favorite at this point.
Nebraska (OPEN - Chuck Hagel): 2 (Probable R)
Key Democrats: Scott Kleeb, Businessman Tony Raimondo
Key Republican: Fmr Gov. & Sec. of Agriculture Mike Johanns
This race showed a flash of top-tier potential at one point; right after Hagel announced his retirement, Former Gov. Bob Kerrey seriously considered entering the race and would have been an early favorite. However, he decided against a run, as did popular Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. Yet many party activists view Kleeb as a rising star and were excited when he recently decided to jump in. His primary opposition, Raimondo, is basically a wealthy Republican who decided he'd have a better shot to win as a Democrat. Ugh. Methinks Kleeb could make it somewhat close if he gets out of the primary, he's a fiery young outsider who seems to have a finger on the pulse of the Cornhusker State, whereas Johanns has spent recent years engaged in Beltway politics. For now, Johanns is a heavy favorite.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Inhofe is the prime exemplar of the Republican head-in-the-sand approach to climate change. He is somewhat of a joke, dumb as a rock and has approval ratings under 50%. The 32-year-old Andrew Rice is definitely a rising star in the state and has consolidated support among party leaders and national activist groups. If he can capitalize on the backlash against two certifiably crazy Sooner senators and gets some support from the national party, it could become very interesting. Nevertheless, it is Oklahoma so Inhofe will likely retain his seat.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challengers: Businessmen Bruce Lunsford, Greg Fischer
In an otherwise successful year for the DSCC, Kentucky has been a major recruiting disappointment. A few strong challengers declined to run, even when polling had them competitive with the Senate Minority Leader. Instead, KY Dems get to choose between a couple of businessmen, and the frontrunner Lunsford has personal wealth but a truckload of baggage. National Dems will invest moderately in the race but the ruthless tactician McConnell will likely spend over $10 million to defend his seat, and barring some sort of scandal it is hard to see how he loses.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 2 (Probable R)
Key Challenger: Former TN-Dems Chair Bob Tuke (considering)
After the top Dem choice, Mike McWherter, declined a run, it looked like Alexander might go without a serious challenge in his first re-election bid. He is also the #3 ranking member in the Senate GOP caucus and appears to be a formidable candidate. But it looks like Dem party insider Bob Tuke will run for the seat. We don't know what kind of candidate Tuke will be, but chances are Alexander wins easily.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
There was hope of a serious challenge to Sessions in state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but Sparks decided to avoid a bruising primary fight with Figures and bowed out. Figures is a smart campaigner and solid Democrat, but unfortunately cannot win a statewide election as an African-American progressive woman. She may hold Sessions below 60%, however, which positions this seat as the least guaranteed among the "sure thing" list.
Wyoming-B (John Barasso): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: Fmr State Sen. Keith Goodenough, Atty Nick Carter (considering)
Barasso was appointed last year by Gov. Dave Freudenthal after Craig Thomas passed away, and he has not drawn significant opposition for November's special election. At least he will have some Dem opposition. The only chance this gets interesting is if Freudenthal decides to run, which is extremely unlikely.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challenger: none of note
Roberts is not particularly popular with approval ratings hanging in the upper 40s, but no viable Democrat has stepped to to challenge him. It looks like he will coast to re-election.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Vernon Jones, Dale Cardwell, Josh Lanier
Democrats truly despise Chambliss for the loathsome smears he launched against former Sen. Max Cleland last time around, questioning the patriotism of a Vietnam Vet and triple amputee. However, Georgia is one of the few states still trending towards the GOP and no top-tier or even second-tier challenger has emerged. Whomever emerges from the Dem primary, expect Chambliss to win by a 2:1 margin.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Attorney Michael Cone, many angry Republicans
Graham is in no danger whatsoever of being defeated by a Democrat. He may be challenged from the right, however, as he has a horde of primary opponents including RNC member Buddy Witherspoon. He should be fine, although it'll be fun to watch the fireworks attacking Graham for not being crazy enough.
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: Former State Rep. Erik Fleming
Cochran, the Appropriations Committee Ranking Member and former Chair and a long-time Senate veteran, will coast to another easy victory.
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Key Challengers: none
Enzi, unless he unexpectedly retires, will likely go unopposed in his run for re-election.
Whew! So there you have it. The totals:
(Republican seats bolded)
Definite Dem: DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, RI, WV
Probable Dem: AR, MT, NJ, VA
Favored Dem: NM, SD
Leans Dem: NH
Barely Dem: CO, LA, MN
Barely GOP: AK
Leans GOP: ME, OR
Favored GOP: ID, MS, NC, TX
Probable GOP: KY, NE, OK, TN
Definite GOP: AL, GA, KS, MS, SC, WY, WY
Prediction: 7 Dem Pickups and Lieberman caucuses with Republicans.
Final result: 56D, 42R, 2I
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Updated Senate Rankings - October
Senate Rankings, 10/5/07
Dem Seats (12):
Arkansas (Pryor): 9 (Probable D) - Purplish red state, no strong Republican challenger has emerged. Pryor might also benefit if Clinton wins the nomination.
Delaware (Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Illinois (Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Iowa (Harkin): 9 (Probable D) - GOP would love to challenge Harkin but don't seem to have good candidates and the incumbent is pretty popular.
Louisiana (Landrieu): 6 (Barely D) - Treasurer John Kennedy recently switched parties and is looking like the top challenger at the moment.
Massachusetts (Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Michigan (Levin): 9 (Probable D) - If they couldn't make it close against Debbie Stabenow last year, they certainly won't beat the powerful Sen. Levin.
Montana (Baucus): 8 (D Favored) - Surprisingly, it looks like the GOP won't put up a strong fight for this seat. Baucus has done a great job of scaring away potential challengers.
New Jersey (Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D) - Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other NJ politician. Rove badly miscalculated by gunning for Menendez last year.
Rhode Island (Reed): 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota (Johnson): 7 (Leans D) - Johnson is healthy and likely running again; his brain hemorrhage has actually served as a political boon in defusing GOP attacks. No elite challenger has emerged and chances are none will unless he retires.
West Virginia (Rockefeller): 9 (Probable D)
Dem Seat Totals (12):
Definite D - 4
Probable D - 5
D Favored - 1
Leans D - 1
Barely D - 1
Estimated GOP Pickups: 0-1
Republican Seats (22):
Alabama (Sessions): 1 (Definite R) - Dems lost hope of getting this seat when Ron Sparks declined a challenge.
Alaska (Stevens): 3 (R Favored) - An institution in Alaska and probably the most corrupt Senator, Stevens continues to be embroiled in scandal and it remains to be seen whether he can survive politically. Dems' top hope is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is still deciding whether to jump in. The dynamics of this race could change significantly over the next few months.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - This is a battle of two Congressmen, Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R). Udall is quite moderate in this purple state while Schaffer is, well, not. Schaffer also is involved in a developing scandal involving kickbacks while on the state Board of Ed. Either way, this is Udall's race to lose.
Georgia (Chambliss): 1 (Definite R) - Democrats hate Chambliss for comparing wounded war vet Max Cleland to Osama in his 2002 race, but it's Georgia. 'Nuff said.
Idaho (Craig?): 3 (R Favored) - This one gets more and more fun to watch. With Craig now finishing his term, it looks like a really bloody GOP primary is in the cards (think 10 candidates who all believe they rightfully deserve the seat). And with this in mind, Craig may decide that he can win a primary in a divided field and things would get really interesting. Meanwhile, Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco is crisscrossing the state, building name recognition and championing a strong populist message. Stay tuned.
Kansas (Roberts): 2 (Probable R) - It remains to be seen whether Dems can field a challenger capable of knocking off Roberts, but if ever possible it will be this year. Roberts has never been more unpopular among Kansans. Rumors have former Rep. Jim Slattery jumping in.
Kentucky (McConnell): 3 (R Favored) - Democrats see McConnell as potential payback for then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle's defeat in '04. They have a solid candidate in Atty General Greg Stumbo. Can they keep up with McConnell in the money game? That will likely decide whether this race is serious or not.
Maine (Collins): 5 (Barely R) - I see this as a major bellwhether race of the Senate '08 elections, along with Oregon. Rep. Tom Allen is a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough, close, nasty race. Senator Collins has this moderate grandmother image but if the Dems can make this a referendum on Iraq, Allen wins. And Collins' recent dirty attacks on Allen may make it possible for Allen to debunk her reputation as a consensus-builder.
Minnesota (Coleman): 6 (Barely D) - Al Franken gets a slight edge here for outraising Coleman two quarters in a row, even with Bu$h coming to town in August. It is actually a great sign that Franken's name has been off the radar recently; this means he's playing the grassroots game and building local relationships Wellstone-style. Franken has a legitimate primary challenger in attorney Mike Ciresi, but Franken's name recognition and reputation as a fighter should win him the nomination. In any case, this will be a nasty race.
Mississippi (Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Nebraska (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - This will probably be a close race, with two top Republican candidates and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey likely to run. However, too many x-factors here to get a definitive read.
New Hampshire (Sununu): 7 (Leans D) - Oddly, the incumbent Sununu is a clear underdog now that popular former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen is running. This is her race to lose.
New Mexico (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - The pieces are still falling into place following Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement. Republican Rep. Heather Wilson is in, and her GOP colleague Rep. Steve Pearce might run as well. Wilson is moderate but plagued by the same US Attorney scandal that brought down Sen. Domenici, and Pearce may be too conservative to win a statewide race. While top Dems Gov. Richardson and Rep. Udall have declined a Senate run, Lt. Gov Diane Denish and Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez are considering bids and both would make solid candidates. Stay tuned.
North Carolina (Dole): 3 (R Favored) - Dole is very vulnerable, but still no serious Democratic challenger has emerged. This will have to move down to a 2 if none steps forward soon.
Oklahoma (Inhofe): 2 (Probable R) - It's Oklahoma, but Inhofe is crazy enough to be susceptible to a challenge from a fighting reality-based Democrat. State Sen. Andrew Rice is only 34, but could make things interesting given the right circumstances.
Oregon (Smith): 4 (Leans R) - Along with Maine, this is a top bellwether race of '08. The Dems got their top challenger in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith will be very well funded and will definitely fight for his seat, but the R next to his name might be too much to overcome. We shall see. If Merkley wins, expect Dems to get close to a 60-seat supermajority.
South Carolina (Graham): 1 (Definite R) - Lindsey Graham's only real challenge may come from the right. A bruising primary is likely.
Tennessee (Alexander): 3 (R Favored) - It looks like businessman and Gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is going to run, and he has the finances and name recognition to give Alexander a run for his money. Stay tuned.
Texas (Cornyn): 3 (R Favored) - Most sane people hate Cornyn, a bully-like hyperpartisan and Bush crony. State Rep. Rick Noriega is running a smart grassroots campaign, and seems to be holding his own in fundraising. He faces a primary challenge from attorney Mikal Watts, but Noriega is the guy who can take down Cornyn.
Virginia (OPEN): 8 (D Favored) - This seat should remain in the hands of a guy named Warner, but it will be a different Warner. With John out and Mark in, the highly popular former Governor is the clear favorite no matter who emerges from a nasty GOP primary.
Wyoming (Enzi): 1 (Definite R) - Probably will be the only unopposed Republican.
Wyoming (Barasso): 1 (Definite R) - John Barasso, the appointee to this seat following the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, might face token opposition from the Democrats, but the only seemingly decent challenger on the D side, Gary Trauner, is running for the House.
GOP Seat Totals (22):
Definite R: 6
Probable R: 2
R Favored: 6
Leans R: 1
Toss-Ups (Barely R or D): 4
Leans D: 2
D Favored: 1
Estimated Dem Pickups: 5-9
111th Congress Estimated Party Breakdown: 58 D*, 42 R
*D's include Independent Sens. Sanders and Lieberman
Dem Seats (12):
Arkansas (Pryor): 9 (Probable D) - Purplish red state, no strong Republican challenger has emerged. Pryor might also benefit if Clinton wins the nomination.
Delaware (Biden): 10 (Definite D)
Illinois (Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Iowa (Harkin): 9 (Probable D) - GOP would love to challenge Harkin but don't seem to have good candidates and the incumbent is pretty popular.
Louisiana (Landrieu): 6 (Barely D) - Treasurer John Kennedy recently switched parties and is looking like the top challenger at the moment.
Massachusetts (Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Michigan (Levin): 9 (Probable D) - If they couldn't make it close against Debbie Stabenow last year, they certainly won't beat the powerful Sen. Levin.
Montana (Baucus): 8 (D Favored) - Surprisingly, it looks like the GOP won't put up a strong fight for this seat. Baucus has done a great job of scaring away potential challengers.
New Jersey (Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D) - Lautenberg is unpopular, but so is every other NJ politician. Rove badly miscalculated by gunning for Menendez last year.
Rhode Island (Reed): 10 (Definite D)
South Dakota (Johnson): 7 (Leans D) - Johnson is healthy and likely running again; his brain hemorrhage has actually served as a political boon in defusing GOP attacks. No elite challenger has emerged and chances are none will unless he retires.
West Virginia (Rockefeller): 9 (Probable D)
Dem Seat Totals (12):
Definite D - 4
Probable D - 5
D Favored - 1
Leans D - 1
Barely D - 1
Estimated GOP Pickups: 0-1
Republican Seats (22):
Alabama (Sessions): 1 (Definite R) - Dems lost hope of getting this seat when Ron Sparks declined a challenge.
Alaska (Stevens): 3 (R Favored) - An institution in Alaska and probably the most corrupt Senator, Stevens continues to be embroiled in scandal and it remains to be seen whether he can survive politically. Dems' top hope is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is still deciding whether to jump in. The dynamics of this race could change significantly over the next few months.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - This is a battle of two Congressmen, Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R). Udall is quite moderate in this purple state while Schaffer is, well, not. Schaffer also is involved in a developing scandal involving kickbacks while on the state Board of Ed. Either way, this is Udall's race to lose.
Georgia (Chambliss): 1 (Definite R) - Democrats hate Chambliss for comparing wounded war vet Max Cleland to Osama in his 2002 race, but it's Georgia. 'Nuff said.
Idaho (Craig?): 3 (R Favored) - This one gets more and more fun to watch. With Craig now finishing his term, it looks like a really bloody GOP primary is in the cards (think 10 candidates who all believe they rightfully deserve the seat). And with this in mind, Craig may decide that he can win a primary in a divided field and things would get really interesting. Meanwhile, Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco is crisscrossing the state, building name recognition and championing a strong populist message. Stay tuned.
Kansas (Roberts): 2 (Probable R) - It remains to be seen whether Dems can field a challenger capable of knocking off Roberts, but if ever possible it will be this year. Roberts has never been more unpopular among Kansans. Rumors have former Rep. Jim Slattery jumping in.
Kentucky (McConnell): 3 (R Favored) - Democrats see McConnell as potential payback for then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle's defeat in '04. They have a solid candidate in Atty General Greg Stumbo. Can they keep up with McConnell in the money game? That will likely decide whether this race is serious or not.
Maine (Collins): 5 (Barely R) - I see this as a major bellwhether race of the Senate '08 elections, along with Oregon. Rep. Tom Allen is a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough, close, nasty race. Senator Collins has this moderate grandmother image but if the Dems can make this a referendum on Iraq, Allen wins. And Collins' recent dirty attacks on Allen may make it possible for Allen to debunk her reputation as a consensus-builder.
Minnesota (Coleman): 6 (Barely D) - Al Franken gets a slight edge here for outraising Coleman two quarters in a row, even with Bu$h coming to town in August. It is actually a great sign that Franken's name has been off the radar recently; this means he's playing the grassroots game and building local relationships Wellstone-style. Franken has a legitimate primary challenger in attorney Mike Ciresi, but Franken's name recognition and reputation as a fighter should win him the nomination. In any case, this will be a nasty race.
Mississippi (Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Nebraska (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - This will probably be a close race, with two top Republican candidates and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey likely to run. However, too many x-factors here to get a definitive read.
New Hampshire (Sununu): 7 (Leans D) - Oddly, the incumbent Sununu is a clear underdog now that popular former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen is running. This is her race to lose.
New Mexico (OPEN): 5 (Barely R) - The pieces are still falling into place following Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement. Republican Rep. Heather Wilson is in, and her GOP colleague Rep. Steve Pearce might run as well. Wilson is moderate but plagued by the same US Attorney scandal that brought down Sen. Domenici, and Pearce may be too conservative to win a statewide race. While top Dems Gov. Richardson and Rep. Udall have declined a Senate run, Lt. Gov Diane Denish and Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez are considering bids and both would make solid candidates. Stay tuned.
North Carolina (Dole): 3 (R Favored) - Dole is very vulnerable, but still no serious Democratic challenger has emerged. This will have to move down to a 2 if none steps forward soon.
Oklahoma (Inhofe): 2 (Probable R) - It's Oklahoma, but Inhofe is crazy enough to be susceptible to a challenge from a fighting reality-based Democrat. State Sen. Andrew Rice is only 34, but could make things interesting given the right circumstances.
Oregon (Smith): 4 (Leans R) - Along with Maine, this is a top bellwether race of '08. The Dems got their top challenger in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith will be very well funded and will definitely fight for his seat, but the R next to his name might be too much to overcome. We shall see. If Merkley wins, expect Dems to get close to a 60-seat supermajority.
South Carolina (Graham): 1 (Definite R) - Lindsey Graham's only real challenge may come from the right. A bruising primary is likely.
Tennessee (Alexander): 3 (R Favored) - It looks like businessman and Gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is going to run, and he has the finances and name recognition to give Alexander a run for his money. Stay tuned.
Texas (Cornyn): 3 (R Favored) - Most sane people hate Cornyn, a bully-like hyperpartisan and Bush crony. State Rep. Rick Noriega is running a smart grassroots campaign, and seems to be holding his own in fundraising. He faces a primary challenge from attorney Mikal Watts, but Noriega is the guy who can take down Cornyn.
Virginia (OPEN): 8 (D Favored) - This seat should remain in the hands of a guy named Warner, but it will be a different Warner. With John out and Mark in, the highly popular former Governor is the clear favorite no matter who emerges from a nasty GOP primary.
Wyoming (Enzi): 1 (Definite R) - Probably will be the only unopposed Republican.
Wyoming (Barasso): 1 (Definite R) - John Barasso, the appointee to this seat following the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, might face token opposition from the Democrats, but the only seemingly decent challenger on the D side, Gary Trauner, is running for the House.
GOP Seat Totals (22):
Definite R: 6
Probable R: 2
R Favored: 6
Leans R: 1
Toss-Ups (Barely R or D): 4
Leans D: 2
D Favored: 1
Estimated Dem Pickups: 5-9
111th Congress Estimated Party Breakdown: 58 D*, 42 R
*D's include Independent Sens. Sanders and Lieberman
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