http://policyhippo.blogspot.com/
This is the blog started by editors of the GW public policy school journal, Policy Perspectives, of which I now am one. I'll actually be posting there pretty regularly (I mean it this time!) so please check it out and comment freely.
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I'll still be posting as optimo.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
President Obama's Inheritance
No doubt, it feels good to be a progressive these days. Democrats have more control of the federal government than any time since just after the 1964 landslide elections. That was immediately followed by the enactment of Medicare and other key social safety net programs, so it is no surprise that many left-leaning advocates and engaged citizens are expecting big things from the upcoming Obama Administration.
Call me a downer if you want, but I'm not quite so thrilled about the prospects for immediate major advances. I'm certainly feeling an awful lot better walking by the White House these days, but that said, we are about to witness our nation's first black president attempt to maneuver an agenda through perhaps the most dire state of affairs this nation has seen since at least the Great Depression era. The global climate crisis, daunting economic inequality, the Iraq debacle and the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, unsustainable energy consumption, a health care system in absolute shambles. Oh yeah, and there's that whole financial/economic meltdown thing. And that doesn't even bother with a whole host of other important issues that aren't quite as imminently crucial.
We know one thing: governing with be anything but a cakewalk, even with significant Democratic majorities in congress. The constraints on enacting common-sense progressive legislation extend way beyond the impressive ability of Republicans to obstruct. We are plagued by a wide variety of obstacles of all shapes and sizes: a trillion-dollar structural budget deficit ("structural" means it won't go away on its own when the economy gets better), factionalism within the Democratic caucus, loss of credibility around the world, and a continued public aversion to large tax increases. And it's not like most people are aware of these formidable constraints; after all, didn't you hear about Lindsay Lohan's latest drunken escapade?
Really, I'm not trying to be a downer. I just think it's of the utmost importance that highly educated folks like us are realistic in our expectations for the President-elect's job performance. It will take a heroic effort on Mr. Obama's part to:
Good luck, Mr. President-elect. You'll need it.
Call me a downer if you want, but I'm not quite so thrilled about the prospects for immediate major advances. I'm certainly feeling an awful lot better walking by the White House these days, but that said, we are about to witness our nation's first black president attempt to maneuver an agenda through perhaps the most dire state of affairs this nation has seen since at least the Great Depression era. The global climate crisis, daunting economic inequality, the Iraq debacle and the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, unsustainable energy consumption, a health care system in absolute shambles. Oh yeah, and there's that whole financial/economic meltdown thing. And that doesn't even bother with a whole host of other important issues that aren't quite as imminently crucial.
We know one thing: governing with be anything but a cakewalk, even with significant Democratic majorities in congress. The constraints on enacting common-sense progressive legislation extend way beyond the impressive ability of Republicans to obstruct. We are plagued by a wide variety of obstacles of all shapes and sizes: a trillion-dollar structural budget deficit ("structural" means it won't go away on its own when the economy gets better), factionalism within the Democratic caucus, loss of credibility around the world, and a continued public aversion to large tax increases. And it's not like most people are aware of these formidable constraints; after all, didn't you hear about Lindsay Lohan's latest drunken escapade?
Really, I'm not trying to be a downer. I just think it's of the utmost importance that highly educated folks like us are realistic in our expectations for the President-elect's job performance. It will take a heroic effort on Mr. Obama's part to:
- get the economy back on track and create quality jobs,
- shepherd a meaningful climate change initiative through Congress,
- shepherd meaningful health care reform, hopefully providing universal coverage, through Congress,
- get us out of Iraq and restore our standing in the world,
- squash the danger posed by Islamic terrorists and al-Qaeda,
- and get the budget under control.
Good luck, Mr. President-elect. You'll need it.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
The price of GM's continued existence
I was about to write a spirited rant about the blatant folly of bailing out disgustingly retrograde American car companies, but Lisa beat me to the punch. If you really want to know my thoughts on this, you can find them in a comment on Lisa's post.
But I do want to add one key point. If GM continues to exist and generally suck at making cars, it limits the abilities of more innovative startup companies to grow and gain market share. Companies making cars like the Aptera.
This beauty is actually ready for production, but auto industry regulations essentially written by GM lobbyists are making the producers jump through hoops just to get it on the road. Why does our government hate the car of the future?
But I do want to add one key point. If GM continues to exist and generally suck at making cars, it limits the abilities of more innovative startup companies to grow and gain market share. Companies making cars like the Aptera.
This beauty is actually ready for production, but auto industry regulations essentially written by GM lobbyists are making the producers jump through hoops just to get it on the road. Why does our government hate the car of the future?
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Optimo's Official Election Recap
There will be much time to talk about 2009 and the coming Obama presidency, but it feels right to start off with a recap of the election.
Obviously we know Obama won, and decisively so. He definitely has amassed 364 EVs and still could end up with 376 (Missouri and the single Omaha district remain too close to call). He outperformed John Kerry in just about every demographic group you can imagine. Check out the details, they're pretty striking. Obama won the 18-29 age group by an astounding 2-to-1 margin. Regionally, major gains were made in the coastal South, upper Midwest, Northeast and non-Mormon areas of the Mountain West. It's hard to see these gains fading away anytime soon if Democrats manage to deliver on at least some of their promises over the next few years.
In Congress, Republicans actually did a little better than expected. Although a few races in both chambers are still yet to be decided, they lost ground but managed to avoid a major landslide. As of now, the count stands at 22 seats flipping from R to D, 4 '06 D pickups flipping back to R, and eight still yet to be decided. If the eight remaining seats split 4-4, the final count will be 258-177.
The Senate saw at least six Democratic pickups in a very tough year for Republicans, while 3 races involving R incumbents remain too close to call. AK is waiting for all mail-in ballots to be counted, MN will go to a recount, and GA will go to a runoff election. If the D challenger wins in all three (which is very unlikely), then Democrats reach that supposedly magical 60 mark. Georgia would really be a shocker, and both sides will be throwing a ton of resources into the special December 2nd runoff election. My best guess for the final tally is 57-43: Franken wins in Minnesota and Lieberman bolts to the GOP. Again, both houses see non-negligible Dem majorities, but not large enough for the center-left governing coalition within the party to easily get legislation through.
The state level elections produced few surprises and was much more even. Democrats picked up the Missouri governorship which will impact policy there, but all other governor races stayed the same. Democrats picked up 5 state legislative chambers, including the NY Senate (as expected) for the first time in over a century, and Republicans surprisingly picked up both chambers in Tennessee along with 2 other bodies. New Hampshire now has the first majority-female legislative body in the country's history. Ballot initiatives were a very mixed bag. I won't bother with the details, but some nonpartisan review can be found here.
Obviously we know Obama won, and decisively so. He definitely has amassed 364 EVs and still could end up with 376 (Missouri and the single Omaha district remain too close to call). He outperformed John Kerry in just about every demographic group you can imagine. Check out the details, they're pretty striking. Obama won the 18-29 age group by an astounding 2-to-1 margin. Regionally, major gains were made in the coastal South, upper Midwest, Northeast and non-Mormon areas of the Mountain West. It's hard to see these gains fading away anytime soon if Democrats manage to deliver on at least some of their promises over the next few years.
In Congress, Republicans actually did a little better than expected. Although a few races in both chambers are still yet to be decided, they lost ground but managed to avoid a major landslide. As of now, the count stands at 22 seats flipping from R to D, 4 '06 D pickups flipping back to R, and eight still yet to be decided. If the eight remaining seats split 4-4, the final count will be 258-177.
The Senate saw at least six Democratic pickups in a very tough year for Republicans, while 3 races involving R incumbents remain too close to call. AK is waiting for all mail-in ballots to be counted, MN will go to a recount, and GA will go to a runoff election. If the D challenger wins in all three (which is very unlikely), then Democrats reach that supposedly magical 60 mark. Georgia would really be a shocker, and both sides will be throwing a ton of resources into the special December 2nd runoff election. My best guess for the final tally is 57-43: Franken wins in Minnesota and Lieberman bolts to the GOP. Again, both houses see non-negligible Dem majorities, but not large enough for the center-left governing coalition within the party to easily get legislation through.
The state level elections produced few surprises and was much more even. Democrats picked up the Missouri governorship which will impact policy there, but all other governor races stayed the same. Democrats picked up 5 state legislative chambers, including the NY Senate (as expected) for the first time in over a century, and Republicans surprisingly picked up both chambers in Tennessee along with 2 other bodies. New Hampshire now has the first majority-female legislative body in the country's history. Ballot initiatives were a very mixed bag. I won't bother with the details, but some nonpartisan review can be found here.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election predictions
Here is what I expect for tomorrow's election:
Obama wins 53-45 with 1-2% voting for someone else.
He will amass 359 EV's, by winning all the Kerry states and picking up Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.
Three other potential Obama states - Georgia, Indiana and Missouri - will be slight losses due to voting "irregularities". Each of these state governments is dominated by Republicans, and the urban minority areas will be plagued by massive lines, voter intimidation and potential other funny business.
In the Senate, Democrats will pick up eight seats tomorrow: Virginia (Warner), New Mexico (T. Udall), Colorado (M. Udall), Alaska (Begich), New Hampshire (Shaheen), Oregon (Merkley), North Carolina (Hagan), Minnesota (Franken). Georgia's race will go to an early December runoff, and odious incumbent Saxby Chambliss will prevail in a nailbiter. Lieberman will lose his committee chairmanship but will reluctantly decide to remain in the Dem caucus. Thus, Democrats will end up with 59 members, but still be able to break some GOP filibusters by flipping moderates like Snowe, Specter and, yes, the re-re-reinvented McMaverick.
The House is more nebulous (too many damn races to follow), but I expect around 30-35 D pickups and 2-4 R pickups.
Dems pick up the Missouri governorship, and all others remain in current hands. Dems pick up the NY State Senate and prepare to eradicate the state of all Republican congresscritters after the 2010 census.
California's Proposition 8 (gay marriage ban) fails. South Dakota's abortion ban, designed specifically for a Roe v. Wade challenge fails. Affirmative action banning and anti-worker initiatives all fail. Massachusetts' measure eliminating the income tax fails, but marijuana decriminalization passes.
Can you say landslide?
Make your own predictions here.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
$1,000,000,000,000,000
That number, folks, is a quadrillion. A million billion. Bet you've never seen it before. I've only seen it in measuring distances in astronomy; the nearest star to the sun is about a quadrillion meters away from here. It seems like such an unfathomably large number that I wouldn't expect to ever encounter it associated with something here on Earth, something directly related to the human experience. But I saw it today.
You'll notice the number in the title has a dollars sign in front of it. That number represents the approximate amount of financial value tied up the derivatives market as recently reported by the Bank for International Settlements. Over fifteen times the entire world's GDP ($60 trillion). In other words, way more money is invested in these derivatives, which are best described in layman's terms as bets on bets, than actually exists.
Confused? Good. You're starting to get why we're in such a mess. See, the fact that these volatile markets hold a quadrillion dollars of value is not a dangerous thing in itself. The problem lies in the harsh reality that nobody has any f***ing clue what these things are worth. That's why everyone's so scared.
This can happen because there are no intrinsic checks and balances (aka regulations) on the derivatives market the way there are with banks. Institutional investors and speculators can leverage their real assets without limit, essentially creating vast amounts of financial wealth out of thin air. But because that wealth isn't backed up by any material assets, its value is both limitless and extremely unstable.
To better put this phenomenon into perspective, take a look at this chart:
More to come....
You'll notice the number in the title has a dollars sign in front of it. That number represents the approximate amount of financial value tied up the derivatives market as recently reported by the Bank for International Settlements. Over fifteen times the entire world's GDP ($60 trillion). In other words, way more money is invested in these derivatives, which are best described in layman's terms as bets on bets, than actually exists.
Confused? Good. You're starting to get why we're in such a mess. See, the fact that these volatile markets hold a quadrillion dollars of value is not a dangerous thing in itself. The problem lies in the harsh reality that nobody has any f***ing clue what these things are worth. That's why everyone's so scared.
This can happen because there are no intrinsic checks and balances (aka regulations) on the derivatives market the way there are with banks. Institutional investors and speculators can leverage their real assets without limit, essentially creating vast amounts of financial wealth out of thin air. But because that wealth isn't backed up by any material assets, its value is both limitless and extremely unstable.
To better put this phenomenon into perspective, take a look at this chart:
More to come....
Saturday, October 4, 2008
October 2008 Senate Roundup
And down the stretch they come! The landscape hasn't changed drastically since the last update in June, although a few races have moved a category or two. If you can believe it, the situation has gotten even better for the Dem-held seats, as it looks like they will all be retained. Meanwhile, the hierarchy of GOP races has stayed much the same in terms of competitiveness, although three (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina) have jumped two categories while three others (Idaho, Kansas and Maine) have fallen two categories. Dems are now poised to grab at least seven seats, and the ceiling at this point seems to be somewhere in the 10-12 range.
This will be my last full set of rankings, although I will post an update on competitive races during the week before election day.
Here's the key, same as usual:
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
To the rankings!
Summary (pickups in italics)
10: AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, VA, WV
9: NJ
8: LA, NM
7: AK, CO, NH
6: NC, OR
5: MN
4: MS-B
3: GA, KY
2: ME, SC, TX
1: AL, ID, KS, MS-A, NE, OK, TN, WY-A, WY-B
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Democratic Candidate: (Popular) Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Candidate: (Less Popular) Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
This race has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Organizing in northern Virginia, I have seen a whole bunch of Obama/Warner posters and yard signs. It's one of those rare instances where up-ballot coattails could help carry this all-important swing state for Barack. Another note: for some reason this has been one of the most often-polled Senate races. Pollsters should save their $$ - no poll has shown Gilmore within 20 points. The only question remaining is what committees Warner will get onto in the 111th Congress.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Candidate: Rep. Steve Pearce
A contest between two sitting Congressmen, this contest was bound to tighten a bit as election day drew nearer and voters started paying more attention. Nevertheless, Udall remains projected to win by a low-double digit margin (something like 56-44). The NRSC has written off New Mexico, seeing this seat as a lost cause. Really not much else to say...I think Udall will be a fantastic Senator.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - slight downgrade
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado is a top-tier presidential swing state this year, and its senate race has been no different; it has garned much attention from the DSCC and NRSC and has stayed consistently in single digits. Udall remains a clear favorite, but he has failed to pull away from the batnuts crazy Schaffer, whose views are even considered extreme as compared to the current group of shit-flinging howler monkeys (h/t Trapper John for that wonderfully descriptive term) known as the House Republican Caucus. Schaffer has also been caught up in numerous corruption scandals, the most notable being his ties to the infamous superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Udall remains up by mere single digits, it will take a dramatic game-changing event for him to lose.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 7 (Leans D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
This race was looking pretty good even before Stevens was indicted a couple months ago. Now Begich is clearly in the driver's seat. Even though the Alaska titan Stevens, who has been in the Senate almost as long as Alaska has been a state, may be able to beat his corruption charges, his brand is still highly tainted due to all the negative spotlight. And for reference, a perception of impropriety among the Alaska Republican establishment was precisely what swept Sarah Palin into office in 2006. Begich seems to have strong integrity, high name recognition and has some great ideas on energy and transitioning to a green economy. Another guy I would be proud to call a Senator.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Although Sununu's September attack ad blitz has tightened the race a bit, he still remains fundamentally unpopular, as he has consistently shilled for the horrendously unpopular Bush administration and continues to do so even now. It's hard to see how he overcomes that albatross with this election climate.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 6 (Barely D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
Over the past few weeks, Hagan has pulled into a definitive lead over the frankly incompetent Senator Dole. The DSCC has invested massively on Hagan's behalf, and their hard-hitting ads highlighting Liddy Dole's ties to George Bush, general ineffectiveness and questionable ties to North Carolina (her primary residence is DC's infamous Watergate Hotel) have clearly had an effect. Surely the Republican establishment will hit back on the incumbent's behalf, but it seems like the damage has been done.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 6 (Barely D) - upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
This movement is really exciting to see; Merkley has the potential to be a great progressive Senator. He engineered a Democratic takeover of the Oregon State House in 2006 and proceeded to preside over one of the most successful legislative sessions in recent history. He has fantastic views on energy, transportation, social and economic issues - the whole gamut of domestic affairs. Smith could still win as polls are showing a virtual tie, but he has really disgusted some Oregonians by trying to heavyhandedly run away from his party. It is hard to see how he overcomes that loss of credibility.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R)
Democratic Challenger: Al Franken
Notable Independent Candidate: Dean Barkley
I predicted a really nasty race, and am sorry to say I have not been disappointed. Coleman, the former radical hippie activist, is truly a worm. He catapulted into office on the back of faux GOP outrage over the injection of (gasp) politics into progressive hero Paul Wellstone's funeral following his tragic plane crash (I still suspect foul play). And Franken is the perfect man to pick up the Wellstone mantle, being a proud Democrat and not afraid to stand up for his values in the face of criticism. This election is looking much like a toss-up, and will greatly depend on Obama's ability to establish coattails for Franken. Note that Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is generating a significant amount of support and may end up getting close to 20% of the vote.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Somewhat surprisingly, not much has changed overall in the dynamics of this contest. While Musgrove has generally run away from the national Democrats, his chances ironically still reside in the upswell in African-American voters from the Obama campaigns organizing efforts. If I had to guess I would say Wicker pulls it off, but this one is certainly a real Dem pickup opportunity. This would be the seat that gets the Dems to 60 Senators (including Lieberman), so expect ample national party committee expenditures in MS during the camapign's final weeks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Challenger: Rich Businessman Bruce Lunsford
Polls have McConnell ahead somewhere in the single digits, at it will likely remain that way through election day. It would be great to knock off the odious Senate GOP leader McConnell, but at this point a Lunsford victory would merely be the cherry on top of an already sweet election season. McConnell still has a ton of $ in the bank so he should be able to pull out a win.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 3 (Favored R) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Jim Martin
Libertarian Challenger: Allen Buckley
Wow. I really didn't expect this race to tighten, but it has. Obama's investment in Georgia, Chambliss' general arrogance and the deregulation-fueled financial crisis have driven a previously afterthought contest into competitive status. I will need to see a couple more tight polls to be convinced that Martin can win, but man would this be a pleasant surprise. Martin is actually a good, honest guy who would stand with the Dems on most major issues. Expect the DSCC to invest heavily, they really hate Chambliss and if they can siphon enough resources from other places like New Mexico and Maine, GA-Sen has a shot to be the shocker of the 2008 elections.
Texas (John Cornyn): 2 (Probable R) - slight downgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Rep. and Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
Yeah, it's Texas, and while making strides in the right direction, Texas is still unquestionably a red state. But Noriega is running as a proud netroots-style progressive and is gradually closing the gap on the odious chickenhawk Bush-shill Cornyn. While Noriega is badly outgunned financially, the race's margin now hovers in the high single digits. A strong finish by Noriega combined with huge youth and minority turnout could lead to a stunning upset and a great Democratic Senator from Texas. Oh yeah - Cornyn takes the honors for worst campaign ad of the 2008 election cycle.
Maine (Susan Collins): 2 (Probable R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Originally a top-tier pickup target, Maine's contest now ranks just 13th on the list of pickup opportunities. As much as they have tried, Allen and the DSCC simply have not been able to chip away at Sen. Collins' high approval ratings. I believe such popularity is thoroughly undeserved, but she benefits from the coattails of actually moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe and former liberal Republicans that historically dominated the state. It's hard to see how that changes with just a month until election day. Oh well.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 2 (Probable R) - upgrade
"Democratic" Challenger: Bob Conley
Weird. Two recent polls have Graham leading the DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Conley by just nine points. Perhaps conservatives have been impressed by Conley's hardline stances on immigration and crime prevention - he's actually running to the right of Graham on these issues. Graham will almost definitely win, but it's interesting to note that some of this movement may be due to economic trends and a general "throw the bums out" kind of attitude.
Nebraska (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - downgrade
Republican Candidate: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Democratic Candidate: Scott Kleeb
Some lefty activists continue to hold out hope for Kleeb, but I just can't see it. The state is too deeply conservative and Kleeb just doesn't have the name recognition in the eastern part of the state that isn't quite so ruby red.
Idaho (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Republican Candidate: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
I had hopes for this to be the stunning upset of the election cycle but it just never materialized. Idaho remains one of the most strongly Republican states in the country and LaRocco's support seems to be topped out at around 35-38%.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Rice is a very intriguing young Democrat; in just his early 30's, he seems to have a very bright future and may indeed find himself in the Senate one day. But 2008 is not that day. While Inhofe is truly insane and Oklahomans should be embarrassed to have him as a Senator, they aren't.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Former Rep. Jim Slattery
During the early summer this race was showing glimpses of competitiveness and Slattery had the potential to be a solid candidate, but that did not hold. Roberts wil cruise to re-election.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Bob Tuke
Nothing to see here. Tuke seems like a good guy, but hasn't caught any traction.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Nick Carter
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Erik Fleming
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Professor Chris Rothfuss
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 8 (Favored D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy
Once seen as a toss-up race, Landrieu has done a great job so far and currently has a solid double-digit lead over the recent Democratic defector Kennedy. I am being cautious and still leaving Kennedy some room to claw his way back, but with so many GOP seats in jeopardy it looks like the NRSC will not have much $ left over to invest in offense.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Republican Challenger: Former Rep. Dick Zimmer
Polls here are actually closer than in Louisiana, but New Jersey has been the ultimate GOP tease in recent years. Karl Rove & Co. spent millions in the outrageously expensive state in both 2004 and 2006, and likely lost the Senate because that spending diverted precious resources away from Virginia, Montana and Missouri. Expect a 54-46 type victory for Lautenberg.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
There's really not much to say. The GOP really blew this one with a near-total recruitment failure. Johnson will cruise to an easy victory.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
This one is only listed here because there will be an immediate special election to replace Biden when he becomes the Vice President. Note that all following races are in alphabetical order. None of the races from here on need any substantial comment. It is difficult to picture any of these Democratic incumbents winning by less than 15 points.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: NONE (there is a Green Party candidate)
Mind you this is a red state. And the party couldn't find any challenger for a supposedly vulnerable Pryor? Good lord that's pathetic.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Christopher Reed
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jack Hoogendyk
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D)
"Republican" Challenger: Bob Kelleher
This one is worth noting just because Kelleher is a really funny kook dude. He ran against Baucus last time in the Green Party. And he won a contested GOP primary. That's just sad.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Robert Tingle
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jay Wolfe
The only swing vote here may be among people named Jay.
This will be my last full set of rankings, although I will post an update on competitive races during the week before election day.
Here's the key, same as usual:
1: 0-5% chance Dems will win seat
2: 5-15%
3: 15-25%
4: 25-40%
5: 40-50%
6: 50-60%
7: 60-75%
8: 75-85%
9: 85-95%
10: 95-100%
To the rankings!
Summary (pickups in italics)
10: AR, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, VA, WV
9: NJ
8: LA, NM
7: AK, CO, NH
6: NC, OR
5: MN
4: MS-B
3: GA, KY
2: ME, SC, TX
1: AL, ID, KS, MS-A, NE, OK, TN, WY-A, WY-B
Republican-Held Seats (23)
Virginia (OPEN): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Democratic Candidate: (Popular) Former Gov. Mark Warner
Republican Candidate: (Less Popular) Former Gov. Jim Gilmore
This race has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Organizing in northern Virginia, I have seen a whole bunch of Obama/Warner posters and yard signs. It's one of those rare instances where up-ballot coattails could help carry this all-important swing state for Barack. Another note: for some reason this has been one of the most often-polled Senate races. Pollsters should save their $$ - no poll has shown Gilmore within 20 points. The only question remaining is what committees Warner will get onto in the 111th Congress.
New Mexico (OPEN): 8 (Favored D)
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tom Udall
Republican Candidate: Rep. Steve Pearce
A contest between two sitting Congressmen, this contest was bound to tighten a bit as election day drew nearer and voters started paying more attention. Nevertheless, Udall remains projected to win by a low-double digit margin (something like 56-44). The NRSC has written off New Mexico, seeing this seat as a lost cause. Really not much else to say...I think Udall will be a fantastic Senator.
Colorado (OPEN): 7 (Leans D) - slight downgrade
Democratic Candidate: Rep. Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Former Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado is a top-tier presidential swing state this year, and its senate race has been no different; it has garned much attention from the DSCC and NRSC and has stayed consistently in single digits. Udall remains a clear favorite, but he has failed to pull away from the batnuts crazy Schaffer, whose views are even considered extreme as compared to the current group of shit-flinging howler monkeys (h/t Trapper John for that wonderfully descriptive term) known as the House Republican Caucus. Schaffer has also been caught up in numerous corruption scandals, the most notable being his ties to the infamous superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Udall remains up by mere single digits, it will take a dramatic game-changing event for him to lose.
Alaska (Ted Stevens): 7 (Leans D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
This race was looking pretty good even before Stevens was indicted a couple months ago. Now Begich is clearly in the driver's seat. Even though the Alaska titan Stevens, who has been in the Senate almost as long as Alaska has been a state, may be able to beat his corruption charges, his brand is still highly tainted due to all the negative spotlight. And for reference, a perception of impropriety among the Alaska Republican establishment was precisely what swept Sarah Palin into office in 2006. Begich seems to have strong integrity, high name recognition and has some great ideas on energy and transitioning to a green economy. Another guy I would be proud to call a Senator.
New Hampshire (John Sununu): 7 (Leans D)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
Although Sununu's September attack ad blitz has tightened the race a bit, he still remains fundamentally unpopular, as he has consistently shilled for the horrendously unpopular Bush administration and continues to do so even now. It's hard to see how he overcomes that albatross with this election climate.
North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole): 6 (Barely D) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Kay Hagan
Over the past few weeks, Hagan has pulled into a definitive lead over the frankly incompetent Senator Dole. The DSCC has invested massively on Hagan's behalf, and their hard-hitting ads highlighting Liddy Dole's ties to George Bush, general ineffectiveness and questionable ties to North Carolina (her primary residence is DC's infamous Watergate Hotel) have clearly had an effect. Surely the Republican establishment will hit back on the incumbent's behalf, but it seems like the damage has been done.
Oregon (Gordon Smith): 6 (Barely D) - upgrade
Democratic Challenger: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
This movement is really exciting to see; Merkley has the potential to be a great progressive Senator. He engineered a Democratic takeover of the Oregon State House in 2006 and proceeded to preside over one of the most successful legislative sessions in recent history. He has fantastic views on energy, transportation, social and economic issues - the whole gamut of domestic affairs. Smith could still win as polls are showing a virtual tie, but he has really disgusted some Oregonians by trying to heavyhandedly run away from his party. It is hard to see how he overcomes that loss of credibility.
Minnesota (Norm Coleman): 5 (Barely R)
Democratic Challenger: Al Franken
Notable Independent Candidate: Dean Barkley
I predicted a really nasty race, and am sorry to say I have not been disappointed. Coleman, the former radical hippie activist, is truly a worm. He catapulted into office on the back of faux GOP outrage over the injection of (gasp) politics into progressive hero Paul Wellstone's funeral following his tragic plane crash (I still suspect foul play). And Franken is the perfect man to pick up the Wellstone mantle, being a proud Democrat and not afraid to stand up for his values in the face of criticism. This election is looking much like a toss-up, and will greatly depend on Obama's ability to establish coattails for Franken. Note that Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is generating a significant amount of support and may end up getting close to 20% of the vote.
Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker): 4 (Leans R)
Democratic Challenger: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Somewhat surprisingly, not much has changed overall in the dynamics of this contest. While Musgrove has generally run away from the national Democrats, his chances ironically still reside in the upswell in African-American voters from the Obama campaigns organizing efforts. If I had to guess I would say Wicker pulls it off, but this one is certainly a real Dem pickup opportunity. This would be the seat that gets the Dems to 60 Senators (including Lieberman), so expect ample national party committee expenditures in MS during the camapign's final weeks.
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell): 3 (Favored R)
Democratic Challenger: Rich Businessman Bruce Lunsford
Polls have McConnell ahead somewhere in the single digits, at it will likely remain that way through election day. It would be great to knock off the odious Senate GOP leader McConnell, but at this point a Lunsford victory would merely be the cherry on top of an already sweet election season. McConnell still has a ton of $ in the bank so he should be able to pull out a win.
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss): 3 (Favored R) - major upgrade
Democratic Challenger: Jim Martin
Libertarian Challenger: Allen Buckley
Wow. I really didn't expect this race to tighten, but it has. Obama's investment in Georgia, Chambliss' general arrogance and the deregulation-fueled financial crisis have driven a previously afterthought contest into competitive status. I will need to see a couple more tight polls to be convinced that Martin can win, but man would this be a pleasant surprise. Martin is actually a good, honest guy who would stand with the Dems on most major issues. Expect the DSCC to invest heavily, they really hate Chambliss and if they can siphon enough resources from other places like New Mexico and Maine, GA-Sen has a shot to be the shocker of the 2008 elections.
Texas (John Cornyn): 2 (Probable R) - slight downgrade
Democratic Challenger: State Rep. and Lt. Col. Rick Noriega
Yeah, it's Texas, and while making strides in the right direction, Texas is still unquestionably a red state. But Noriega is running as a proud netroots-style progressive and is gradually closing the gap on the odious chickenhawk Bush-shill Cornyn. While Noriega is badly outgunned financially, the race's margin now hovers in the high single digits. A strong finish by Noriega combined with huge youth and minority turnout could lead to a stunning upset and a great Democratic Senator from Texas. Oh yeah - Cornyn takes the honors for worst campaign ad of the 2008 election cycle.
Maine (Susan Collins): 2 (Probable R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Rep. Tom Allen
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Originally a top-tier pickup target, Maine's contest now ranks just 13th on the list of pickup opportunities. As much as they have tried, Allen and the DSCC simply have not been able to chip away at Sen. Collins' high approval ratings. I believe such popularity is thoroughly undeserved, but she benefits from the coattails of actually moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe and former liberal Republicans that historically dominated the state. It's hard to see how that changes with just a month until election day. Oh well.
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham): 2 (Probable R) - upgrade
"Democratic" Challenger: Bob Conley
Weird. Two recent polls have Graham leading the DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Conley by just nine points. Perhaps conservatives have been impressed by Conley's hardline stances on immigration and crime prevention - he's actually running to the right of Graham on these issues. Graham will almost definitely win, but it's interesting to note that some of this movement may be due to economic trends and a general "throw the bums out" kind of attitude.
Nebraska (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - downgrade
Republican Candidate: Former Gov. Mike Johanns
Democratic Candidate: Scott Kleeb
Some lefty activists continue to hold out hope for Kleeb, but I just can't see it. The state is too deeply conservative and Kleeb just doesn't have the name recognition in the eastern part of the state that isn't quite so ruby red.
Idaho (OPEN): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Republican Candidate: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
I had hopes for this to be the stunning upset of the election cycle but it just never materialized. Idaho remains one of the most strongly Republican states in the country and LaRocco's support seems to be topped out at around 35-38%.
Oklahoma (James Inhofe): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Andrew Rice
Rice is a very intriguing young Democrat; in just his early 30's, he seems to have a very bright future and may indeed find himself in the Senate one day. But 2008 is not that day. While Inhofe is truly insane and Oklahomans should be embarrassed to have him as a Senator, they aren't.
Kansas (Pat Roberts): 1 (Definite R) - major downgrade
Democratic Challenger: Former Rep. Jim Slattery
During the early summer this race was showing glimpses of competitiveness and Slattery had the potential to be a solid candidate, but that did not hold. Roberts wil cruise to re-election.
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Bob Tuke
Nothing to see here. Tuke seems like a good guy, but hasn't caught any traction.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: State Sen. Vivian Figures
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Nick Carter
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Erik Fleming
Wyoming-A (Michael Enzi): 1 (Definite R)
Democratic Challenger: Professor Chris Rothfuss
Democratic-held Seats (12)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu): 8 (Favored D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy
Once seen as a toss-up race, Landrieu has done a great job so far and currently has a solid double-digit lead over the recent Democratic defector Kennedy. I am being cautious and still leaving Kennedy some room to claw his way back, but with so many GOP seats in jeopardy it looks like the NRSC will not have much $ left over to invest in offense.
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg): 9 (Probable D)
Republican Challenger: Former Rep. Dick Zimmer
Polls here are actually closer than in Louisiana, but New Jersey has been the ultimate GOP tease in recent years. Karl Rove & Co. spent millions in the outrageously expensive state in both 2004 and 2006, and likely lost the Senate because that spending diverted precious resources away from Virginia, Montana and Missouri. Expect a 54-46 type victory for Lautenberg.
South Dakota (Tim Johnson): 10 (Definite D) - upgrade
Republican Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra
There's really not much to say. The GOP really blew this one with a near-total recruitment failure. Johnson will cruise to an easy victory.
Delaware (Joe Biden): 10 (Definite D)
This one is only listed here because there will be an immediate special election to replace Biden when he becomes the Vice President. Note that all following races are in alphabetical order. None of the races from here on need any substantial comment. It is difficult to picture any of these Democratic incumbents winning by less than 15 points.
Arkansas (Mark Pryor): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: NONE (there is a Green Party candidate)
Mind you this is a red state. And the party couldn't find any challenger for a supposedly vulnerable Pryor? Good lord that's pathetic.
Illinois (Dick Durbin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg
Iowa (Tom Harkin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Christopher Reed
Massachusetts (John Kerry): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jeff Beatty
Michigan (Carl Levin): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jack Hoogendyk
Montana (Max Baucus): 10 (Definite D)
"Republican" Challenger: Bob Kelleher
This one is worth noting just because Kelleher is a really funny kook dude. He ran against Baucus last time in the Green Party. And he won a contested GOP primary. That's just sad.
Rhode Island (Jack Reed): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Robert Tingle
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller): 10 (Definite D)
Republican Challenger: Jay Wolfe
The only swing vote here may be among people named Jay.
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